IndustriousAngel Posted April 10, 2018 Author Share Posted April 10, 2018 .. and to continue the "good" news ... Austria's March numbers are official, so our 1st quarter is complete and it iiiiis (drumroll) - as was to be expected (further drumroll) - the worst in recent hiostory - 9% down from the 1st quarter of 2017 (which was already pretty bad ... from 2016, we're down 23%). Well, with the World Cup overshadowing early summer, I think it's a pretty safe bet 2018 will become the worst year in Austrian movie history. Not even Han Solo doing a Titanic would save that year. I really would like to offer some better news but there we are 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 (edited) The first trend from insidekino.de (school holidays in only 3% of the country and again the weekend is predicted to become sunny and warm. At least yesterday the weather was rather mixed): #1 RPO 150k - will cross the 400k admission mark #2 A Quiet Place 125k #3 Blockers 100k #4 Jim Knopf 100k, depends on weather #5 Peter Rabbit 40k And some Thursday actuals from Blickpunkt:Film: The new releases: A Quiet Place: 12k (370, mostly good and very good reviews) Blockers: 7.5k (released in 495 theaters, mixed reviews between 2 and 6.5/10, overall worse than the US reviews) 3 Days in Quiberon: 5k (a German/Austrian/French film around the last interview with Romy Schneider,120, ok to very good reviews) -> 35k OW The Etruscan Smile: 1.1k (107, very mixed reviews between 3 and 8/10) -> 7.5 OW Steig. Nicht. Aus!/Don`t Get Out!: 1.1k (a German thriller, 153, pretty good reviews but WOM from previews is much worse) -> 25k OW (really?) Spielmacher/The Playmaker: ?k, not even in the Top 20 (a German sports drama, 120, only two ok reviews so far) -> 5k OW Papa Moll und die Entführung des fliegenden Hundes/Papa Moll and the kidnapping of the flying dog: ?k, also not even in the Top 20 (a Swiss family film, 188, very mixed reviews between 3 and 8.5/10) -> 2.5k OW The holdovers: Ready Player One: 15k (actuals last Thursday 45k) Jim Knopf & Lukas, der Lokomotivführer: 10k whole day (75k whole day) Edited April 13, 2018 by el sid 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 The weather today (atleast here in Hesse) is so incredibly shitty that im hopefull for good numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted April 13, 2018 Author Share Posted April 13, 2018 this trend looks ok for the openers ... at my theater, the gap to RPO is much bigger, it's selling at least double the seats of Quiet Place as well as Blockers (which are about head-to-head) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 4 hours ago, Brainbug said: The weather today (atleast here in Hesse) is so incredibly shitty that im hopefull for good numbers. Nice to hear - for the movies. Where I live (in Bavaria) it was mostly sunny but also windy and cold. I saw that other reports tell the same like yours. And in parts of Germany Saturday and Sunday are now predicted to become mixed instead of sunny. So the weather won`t damage the films as much as it did last weekend. And maybe the bad weather comes even earlier to the South. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 30 minutes ago, el sid said: Nice to hear - for the movies. Where I live (in Bavaria) it was mostly sunny but also windy and cold. I saw that other reports tell the same like yours. And in parts of Germany Saturday and Sunday are now predicted to become mixed instead of sunny. So the weather won`t damage the films as much as it did last weekend. And maybe the bad weather comes even earlier to the South. Its so strange to root for bad weather lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Horrible WE... RPO 130k (-28%/-39%) Not that bad... Probably a bit less than 400k. Blockers 120k A Quiet Place 115k Jim Knopf 105k (-44%) Maybe it already crossed 900k. Peter Rabbit 45k (-68%) An awful drop again, seems like this movie can't work without easter... RS 25k (-22%) 925k+ 1M seems pretty tough now... But at least it has a good hold again. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted April 15, 2018 Author Share Posted April 15, 2018 final estimates even horribler ... except family stuff, that went up from earlier estimates. Everything else just keeps dropping Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted April 16, 2018 Share Posted April 16, 2018 Monday numbers: #1 Jim Knopf 130k #2 Ready Player One 125k (no.1 in terms of money) #3 A Quite Place 95k (100k with previews) #4 Blockers 90k (117.5 with previews) #5 Peter Rabbit 60k In total, likely the worst weekend in almost two years. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted April 17, 2018 Author Share Posted April 17, 2018 Germany's Top16 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Jim Knopf & Lukas … 129.265 735 176 924.953 6.787.445 -32 3 2 Ready Player One 125.461 576 218 385.260 4.202.714 -31 2 3 A Quiet Place 95.718 372 257 100.087 897.624 - 1 4 Blockers 90.019 495 182 117.536 940.988 - 1 5 Peter Rabbit 59.376 731 81 1.359.071 9.101.656 -57 4 6 3 Tage in Quiberon 31.320 120 261 40.633 332.641 - 1 - MET: Luisa Miller 24.354 199 122 24.354 708.754 - 1 7 The Post 21.276 389 55 1.056.152 9.035.909 -28 8 8 Red Sparrow 21.095 313 67 922.842 8.744.541 -34 7 9 Fünf Freunde und das Tal … 18.839 511 37 434.331 2.802.884 -50 5 10 Black Panther 18.322 229 80 1.720.694 18.516.979 -35 9 11 Pacific Rim 2 16.527 374 44 404.536 4.401.383 -56 4 12 Transit 16.275 88 185 47.458 370.810 -19 2 13 La Ch'tite famille 15.426 373 41 227.066 1.864.892 -40 4 14 Midnight Sun 13.231 329 40 234.161 1.810.531 -48 4 15 Tomb Raider 12.702 306 42 564.979 5.639.361 -57 5 16 Steig. Nicht. Aus! 10.495 152 69 31.189 201.939 - 1 What a dreadful weekend … as a protest against the low numbers I included only releases with >10k admissions. The few positive news this weekend are domestic drama 3 Tage in Quiberon about one of Romy Schneider's last interviews - it scored the highest PTA. And both Spielberg movies are (comparatively) shining with sensible drops. Next weekend: No big openers again … but with competition as weak as at the moment, Lady Bird and Ghost Stories both might open in the Top5. What a miserable year at the BO … 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted April 18, 2018 Share Posted April 18, 2018 21 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said: Germany's Top16 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Jim Knopf & Lukas … 129.265 735 176 924.953 6.787.445 -32 3 2 Ready Player One 125.461 576 218 385.260 4.202.714 -31 2 3 A Quiet Place 95.718 372 257 100.087 897.624 - 1 4 Blockers 90.019 495 182 117.536 940.988 - 1 5 Peter Rabbit 59.376 731 81 1.359.071 9.101.656 -57 4 6 3 Tage in Quiberon 31.320 120 261 40.633 332.641 - 1 - MET: Luisa Miller 24.354 199 122 24.354 708.754 - 1 7 The Post 21.276 389 55 1.056.152 9.035.909 -28 8 8 Red Sparrow 21.095 313 67 922.842 8.744.541 -34 7 9 Fünf Freunde und das Tal … 18.839 511 37 434.331 2.802.884 -50 5 10 Black Panther 18.322 229 80 1.720.694 18.516.979 -35 9 11 Pacific Rim 2 16.527 374 44 404.536 4.401.383 -56 4 12 Transit 16.275 88 185 47.458 370.810 -19 2 13 La Ch'tite famille 15.426 373 41 227.066 1.864.892 -40 4 14 Midnight Sun 13.231 329 40 234.161 1.810.531 -48 4 15 Tomb Raider 12.702 306 42 564.979 5.639.361 -57 5 16 Steig. Nicht. Aus! 10.495 152 69 31.189 201.939 - 1 What a dreadful weekend … as a protest against the low numbers I included only releases with >10k admissions. The few positive news this weekend are domestic drama 3 Tage in Quiberon about one of Romy Schneider's last interviews - it scored the highest PTA. And both Spielberg movies are (comparatively) shining with sensible drops. Next weekend: No big openers again … but with competition as weak as at the moment, Lady Bird and Ghost Stories both might open in the Top5. What a miserable year at the BO … That is incredible low (610k for top 10 and 733k for Top 20). Insidekino says worst since 24/16 which was during EM. And I fear this weekend will be worse especially tomorrow and Friday (and these weekdays won't be nice either, especially today) As the middle and the south are projected to have a warm weekend 25°C, the north at least a colder but still okay 18°C (at least Hamburg and Bremen) and sunny. I think below 600k for top 10 will happen. That is just crazy. I actually think we could approach just a bit over 500k. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted April 18, 2018 Author Share Posted April 18, 2018 Yep, with no big openers, it's nearly inevitable that we'll drop even lower (I'm including Austria here; last weekend was even more horrible than in Germany). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted April 20, 2018 Author Share Posted April 20, 2018 omg this is looking even worse than feared ... first estimates from insidekino.de: #1: RPO - 50k (-61%) #2: Quiet - 40k (-58%) #3: Blockers - 25k (-72%) wow. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manny1234 Posted April 20, 2018 Share Posted April 20, 2018 Hopefully Infinity War lights it up and how are presales doing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted April 20, 2018 Author Share Posted April 20, 2018 1 hour ago, manny1234 said: Hopefully Infinity War lights it up and how are presales doing? Midnights about 10-20% atm; Thu evening looking good - Infinity War will put some fire into the BO and has a good chance at becoming the bestselling MCU movie in Germany and Austria. But remember that none of the MCU movies reached blockbuster status here; it would be nice but a surprise if it could overtake 50SoG3 as the 2018 leader. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted April 20, 2018 Share Posted April 20, 2018 4 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said: omg this is looking even worse than feared ... first estimates from insidekino.de: #1: RPO - 50k (-61%) #2: Quiet - 40k (-58%) #3: Blockers - 25k (-72%) wow. and Jim Knopf with 25K (-81%!) and Lady Bird with 35k but that is including Previews so weekend will probably be below 25k. That would leave a Top 5 gross of just ~160k so together with 6 to 10 averaging 15k that would leave the weekend at ~235k which would below the 26/06 weekend (that was the weekend with the Quarterfinale of the WM (Ger:Arg on Friday afternoon (5pm)) which is the lowest weekend (at least the lowest that I found) of probably forever (so at least since 1997) Other low weekend where 24/16 (EM) 531k 23/15 with 515K So I have problems thinking the numbers really will be that low, but on the other hand they totally changed to whether forecast for northern germany from 17°C to up to 27°C or something like that. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted April 20, 2018 Share Posted April 20, 2018 (edited) And some Thursday actuals from Blickpunkt:Film: The new releases: Lady Bird: 3.2k (released in 150 theaters, very good reviews) → 35k OW predicted in the first trend, at least that film is almost in line with expectations Ghost Stories: 1.3k (345 (!) theaters, some ok, several very good reviews) → 10k OW predicted in the first trend, far under the expectations, sunshine and horror are a no go here, see also the bad hold of A Quiet Place. Hopefully The Nun will get a later release date here in Germany than July. Breathe: 800 (148, rather modest reviews) → 7.5k OW predicted Roman J. Israel, Esq.: ?k (103, very mixed reviews between 3.5 and 8/10) → 12k OW predicted The holdovers (their Thursday holds alone wouldn`t be so bad with a less sunny weekend coming): Ready Player One: 8.250 (actuals last Thursday 15k) Jim Knopf & Lukas, der Lokomotivführer: 4.2k whole day (10k whole day) A Quiet Place: 6.5k (12k) Blockers: 4k (7.5k) Edited April 20, 2018 by el sid Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted April 20, 2018 Author Share Posted April 20, 2018 can only speak for Austria but no-one in one's right mind will be going to the movies on a day like this (especially after the hard winter) will be cycling off now myself, watching the last stage of the "Tour of the Alps" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted April 21, 2018 Share Posted April 21, 2018 Some improvement with the second trend, though still on the lowest possible level: #1 Ready Player One 50k #2 A Quiet Place 40k #3 Jim Knopf 37.5k (up 12.5k) #4 Blockers 35k (up 10k) #5 Lady Bird 35k That means the entire top 5 is currently at a tiny bit below 200k for the weekend... 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted April 21, 2018 Share Posted April 21, 2018 3 hours ago, George Parr said: Some improvement with the second trend, though still on the lowest possible level: #1 Ready Player One 50k #2 A Quiet Place 40k #3 Jim Knopf 37.5k (up 12.5k) #4 Blockers 35k (up 10k) #5 Lady Bird 35k That means the entire top 5 is currently at a tiny bit below 200k for the weekend... That would mean just a horrible and one of the worst and not the worst weekend. but I think I read somewhere that Lady Bird had something like close to 10k in Previews, which wouldn't be part of the weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...