IndustriousAngel Posted July 9, 2018 Author Share Posted July 9, 2018 Official numbers for Austria's June are now here; it was not the worst June in history and it wasn't even the worst 2nd quarter, but overall 2018 is still a disaster; less than 5mil admissions in the first half of the year is by far the worst result of the last years - 16% down from last year and 25-30% behind "good" years. Since CGI is always stong here, I have some hopes for I2, but basically the remaining schedule seems too weak to save 2018 from becoming the worst year since like forever. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted July 9, 2018 Share Posted July 9, 2018 As often, the Monday update looks better: #1 The First Purge 155k #2 JW2 122.5k/1.890M #3 O8 80k/485k #4 Meine teuflisch gute Freundin 35k/85k #5 Love, Simon 32.5k/130k #6 Pope Francis 30k/235k #7 DP2 27.5k/2.130M #8 How to Party with Mom 25k/35k #9 Solo 20k/1.285M ... Liebe bringt alles ins Rollen 6k/13k 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted July 9, 2018 Share Posted July 9, 2018 59 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said: Official numbers for Austria's June are now here; it was not the worst June in history and it wasn't even the worst 2nd quarter, but overall 2018 is still a disaster; less than 5mil admissions in the first half of the year is by far the worst result of the last years - 16% down from last year and 25-30% behind "good" years. Since CGI is always stong here, I have some hopes for I2, but basically the remaining schedule seems too weak to save 2018 from becoming the worst year since like forever. I don't fully know about Germany, but as it seems like the first half of the year is the worst this millennium (and probably the worst since 1992 or maybe even worse. If the second half isn't at least somewhat okay, I think this year has a chance at becoming the first year since (before 1965 probably even before 1950) to have less than 100m admissions sold. Right now I think it will end with about 105m adm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted July 10, 2018 Author Share Posted July 10, 2018 Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 The First Purge 153.945 451 341 153.945 1.376.723 - 1 2 Jurassic World 2 122.964 641 192 1.887.907 20.781.953 -24 5 3 Ocean's 8 79.234 690 115 485.669 4.089.753 -23 3 4 Meine teuflisch gute Freundin 34.596 482 72 85.606 591.453 +14 2 5 Love, Simon 32.466 437 74 128.614 904.464 -22 2 6 Papst Franziskus 29.564 597 50 251.012 1.945.829 -9 4 7 Deadpool 2 28.549 442 65 2.130.943 19.347.603 -27 8 8 How to Party with Mom 25.899 305 85 37.333 277.841 - 1 9 Solo 21.062 365 58 1.288.293 13.958.098 -32 7 10 Luis & die Aliens 13.963 459 30 197.241 1.298.971 +3 7 11 Liliane Susewind 10.527 516 20 377.576 2.420.308 +6 9 12 Hereditary 9.829 238 41 91.687 798.314 -38 4 13 Jim Knopf & Lukas 9.273 497 19 1.576.045 10.825.997 +22 15 14 WomanWalks Ahead 7.114 75 95 7.575 63.729 - 1 15 Avengers - Infinity War 6.778 162 42 3.351.115 37.522.321 -33 11 16 Tout le monde debout 6.215 132 47 13.329 90.007 - 1 17 Le Brio 4.102 101 41 51.694 372.675 -20 4 18 Die Wunderübung 3.808 76 50 17.391 126.558 -27 2 19 Peter Rabbit 3.728 339 11 1.505.314 10.005.107 +18 16 20 Candelaria 3.114 59 53 3.410 27.300 - 1 Some increases for family fare (Jim Knopf still showing some staying power, and Peter Rabbit has crossed 10mil €) and decent drops; among openers First Purge did ok while How to Party With Mom is flopping. Next weekend: Skyscraper is the first really expensive opener since the start of the World Cup; while it may seem strange to open on the finals weekend, I think the idea is just of giving it one more weekend to breathe; it's the kind of stupid summer movie that can work with decent drops for many weekends. It should open to #1, despite the finals about 200k admissions should be possible. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted July 12, 2018 Share Posted July 12, 2018 The Thursday estimates for the whole country: The new releases: Skyscraper (released in 530 theaters): 16.5k – that's a bit meager Adrift (346): 12.5k The holdovers (overall good holds): The First Purge: 21k (actuals last Thursday 32.5k) – hopefully this isn't a much too high estimate like it was the case last Thursday. In the South-West report beneath it looks like it will drop (a bit) more hefty. Ocean's 8: 15k (17.5k) - a good hold again JW 2: 12.5k (23k) - probably as always underestimated Love, Simon: 4.5k (7.6k) Pope Francis: 4.5k (estimated 6k) - so far it was always doing better in the actuals DP 2: 4k (estimated 4.5k) How to Party with Mom: 3.5k (5k) The South-West report shows mediocre holds: For The First Purge it counted today 388 admissions (last Thursday 1.059), for JW2 264 (488), O8 had 222 (463), DP2 101 (152), Solo 31 (115, lost several screens). And the biggest new release, Skyscraper attracted 292 moviegoers, Adrift 234 - they're surprisingly close together in this report too. → So in both reports, Skyscraper has to improve strongly over the weekend, otherwise it will for sure stay under the predictions. Mark_G predicts moderate decreases for all holdovers of 20-25%, only The First Purge could decline by 35%. Skyscraper could open with around 175k admissions OW, Adrift with 75k. 50% of the federal republic have school holidays. But guess what, the weather forecast looks again very sunny. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted July 12, 2018 Author Share Posted July 12, 2018 1 hour ago, el sid said: Skyscraper (released in 530 theaters): 16.5k – that's a bit meager you may say that again ... wow, what a poor number (and without any sports or other competition, too) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewart Posted July 12, 2018 Share Posted July 12, 2018 11 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said: you may say that again ... wow, what a poor number (and without any sports or other competition, too) Based on my theaters in the UK, it's gonna open poorly here too. However Incredibles 2 opens tomorrow, so it was bound to be slaughtered anyway Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted July 13, 2018 Share Posted July 13, 2018 This WE will be so bad again... Skycraper 100k JW2 100k (-19%) will cross 2M today or tomorow to be only the 4th(!) of the year to do so... Purge 90k (-42%) Adrift 75k O8 60k (-24%) HTPWM 40k (+14%) the third WE increase in a row, after the bad OW that's quite good... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted July 13, 2018 Author Share Posted July 13, 2018 that's only half of what I expected Skyscaper to make ... at least some decent holds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted July 13, 2018 Share Posted July 13, 2018 And some Thursday actuals (source Blickpunkt:Film): The new releases: Skyscraper: 20.5k/251k US$ Adrift: 15k Foxtrot (50): 1.160 The holdovers: JW 2: 20k (actuals last Thursday 23k) The First Purge: 20k (32.5k) Ocean's 8: 14k (17.5k) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted July 14, 2018 Share Posted July 14, 2018 Not much change in the second trend: #1 The First Purge 100k #2 JW 2 100k #3 Skyscraper 100k #4 Adrift 65k #5 Ocean's 8 55k #6 Meine teuflisch gute Freundin 30k 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted July 14, 2018 Author Share Posted July 14, 2018 The numbers may be shitty but at least the race for #1 is interesting close ... 🙁 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
picores Posted July 14, 2018 Share Posted July 14, 2018 (edited) Skyscraper opening under JW sixth fucking weekend is kinda hilarious. Edited July 14, 2018 by picores 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 Monday numbers: #1 The First Purge 105k #2 Skyscraper 95k / 100k (with previews) #3 JW 2 90k #4 Adrift 57.5k / 67.5k (with previews) #5 Ocean's 8 55k #6 Meine teuflisch gute Freundin 30k 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted July 16, 2018 Author Share Posted July 16, 2018 In Austria, the weekend was a little better (same Top3 but better PTA) thanks mostly to rainier weather I guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted July 17, 2018 Author Share Posted July 17, 2018 Germany's Top14 (>10k admissions) last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 The First Purge 104.911 483 217 312.047 2.714.858 -32 2 2 Skyscraper 94.575 531 178 99.262 1.078.328 - 1 3 Jurassic World 2 91.697 540 170 2.047.273 22.384.049 -25 6 4 Adrift 57.060 346 165 67.439 560.337 - 1 5 Ocean's 8 55.491 641 87 588.301 4.932.679 -30 4 6 Meine teuflisch gute Freundin 30.829 529 58 147.788 1.002.152 -11 3 7 Papst Franziskus 21.445 420 51 297.834 2.297.773 -27 5 8 Love, Simon 21.196 462 46 172.962 1.233.811 -35 3 9 Deadpool 2 20.703 362 57 2.163.345 19.633.836 -27 9 10 How to Party with Mom 15.295 301 51 69.093 522.283 -41 2 11 Luis & die Aliens 15.171 462 33 228.829 1.497.606 +9 8 12 Solo 13.565 287 47 1.313.922 14.209.111 -36 8 13 Jim Knopf & Lukas 12.033 529 23 1.600.767 10.973.122 +30 16 14 Liliane Susewind 11.622 459 25 404.637 2.583.468 +10 10 Horrible numbers, Skyscraper just ridiculous … Family fare fared a bit better, some increases; Jim Knopf has now passed 1,6mil total and Jurassic World 2 sailed over 2mil with a surprisingly good hold. Next weekend: Hotel Transylvania 3 is already in most theaters (it opened yesterday here) and is looking healthy; of course family stuff depends on weather conditions but even with sunny weather a 300k weekend should be doable. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted July 17, 2018 Share Posted July 17, 2018 5 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said: Next weekend: Hotel Transylvania 3 is already in most theaters (it opened yesterday here) and is looking healthy; of course family stuff depends on weather conditions but even with sunny weather a 300k weekend should be doable. You forgot Mamma Mia 2, which also opens this WE. This may finally be a bigger WE again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted July 17, 2018 Author Share Posted July 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, Aristis said: You forgot Mamma Mia 2, which also opens this WE. This may finally be a bigger WE again. You're right, opening tomorrow at my theater and presales look really strong - this is more like an event than a normal release and should work independent of weather! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 The Thursday estimates for the whole country: The new releases (a non-disappointing weekend coming?): Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again (released in 793 theaters which is the largest release of the year so far): 115.5k – I really really hope that this number holds Hotel Transylvania 3 (687): 8k (evening only, therefor that's quite good) Sicario 2 (402): 11k - in line with expectations The holdovers: Skyscraper: 7.5k (actuals last Thursday 20.5k) - doesn't fit to the South-West report and it was underestimated in the estimates last week so I guess the actual number will go up The First Purge: 10k (actuals last Thursday 20k) JW 2: 7.5k (20k) - probably as always underestimated Ocean's 8: 7k (14k) - not surprising, Mamma Mia 2 hurts this movie more than the other films Adrift: 6.5k (15k) The South-West report shows mixed holds: For Skyscraper it counted 212 admissions (last Thursday 292) and for Adrift 190 (234), so both did pretty good today, but for The First Purge only 132 (388), for JW2 139 (264) and O8 had 133 (222). The biggest new release, Mamma Mia 2 had 1.096 admissions in the selected theaters (I expected a bit more after yesterday=the Wednesday previews were it had already over 3k) and Sicario 239, so a bit less than Skyscraper last week, fits to the 11k in the whole country. According to Mark_G from insidekino.de both Mamma Mia 2 and HT 3 could open with ca. 600k admissions, Sicario 2 could gather 75k fans, fits to these estimates. 72% of the federal republic have school holidays. The weather is still pretty sunny but this time with a bit more rain. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted July 19, 2018 Author Share Posted July 19, 2018 FINALLY a good weekend ... how many bad ones in a row did we have? Frankly I don't want to start counting ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...