PKMLover Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, Aristis said: Monday numbers are up quite a bit. And while it isn't a good WE (2nd worst of the year probably despite some holidays in the south) it's much better than feared first. Aladdin 140k (-27%) 1,255M MIB:I 122,5k JW3 70k (-44%) crossed 900k DP 60k (-52%/-55%) Rocketman 60k (-29%) AEG is at 4,985M, so it did around ~47k in 7 days compared to 43k last 4-day WE. This is bad or good sign? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 15 minutes ago, PKMLover said: This is bad or good sign? I edited my post with a better comparison: AEG is at 4,985M, so it did around ~46k in 7 days compared to 56k the 7 days before, a drop of just 18%. But I think the 4-day didn't drop as well as that suggests (still better than -50%) because the midweek seems to have been strong (Aladdin for example had ~145k midweek and 140k WE). 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny Max Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 (edited) AEG excellent trending ... Aladdin doing well too .. rest all poor Edited June 17, 2019 by Sunny Max Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 (edited) 5 hours ago, Aristis said: I edited my post with a better comparison: AEG is at 4,985M, so it did around ~46k in 7 days compared to 56k the 7 days before, a drop of just 18%. But I think the 4-day didn't drop as well as that suggests (still better than -50%) because the midweek seems to have been strong (Aladdin for example had ~145k midweek and 140k WE). Monday was Pentecost, Aladdin did 75k on Monday, 70k on Tuesday and Wednesday combined. Same goes for AEG, so of those 46k adm. about half are the weekdays so weekend probably was around 22-24k. 2 hours ago, Sunny Max said: AEG excellent trending ... Aladdin doing well too .. rest all poor Rocketman dropped just 29% that's just slightly worse than Aladdin and even JW3's hold is okay. And DP had a better hold than in most other countries just a 52/55% drop. And AEG had a drop of ~50% that's not excellent trending. Edited June 17, 2019 by Taruseth 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny Max Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 1 hour ago, Taruseth said: Monday was Pentecost, Aladdin did 75k on Monday, 70k on Tuesday and Wednesday combined. Same goes for AEG, so of those 46k adm. about half are the weekdays so weekend probably was around 22-24k. Rocketman dropped just 29% that's just slightly worse than Aladdin and even JW3's hold is okay. And DP had a better hold than in most other countries just a 52/55% drop. And AEG had a drop of ~50% that's not excellent trending. Ok thank you .. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 6 hours ago, Taruseth said: Monday was Pentecost Of course it was I really forgot that... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 Five Feet Apart: Spoiler Monday 17thJune 2019 23:59 MESZ (T-2) Cinestar Bremen Wednesday – Preview: 2D 19:45: 77 / 572 -> 13.46% (+9) Thursday: 2D 15:00: 0 / 322 2D 17:40: 0 / 322 2D 19:50: 2 / 425 2D 22:45: 0 / 425 Total: 2 / 1494 -> 0.13% Friday: 2D 15:00: 0 / 322 2D 17:40: 0 / 322 2D 19:50: 2 / 425 2D 22:45: 0 / 425 Total: 2 / 1494 -> 0.13% Saturday: 2D 15:00: 2 / 322 2D 17:40: 0 / 322 2D 19:50: 0 / 425 2D 22:45: 0 / 425 Total: 2 / 1494 -> 0.13% Sunday: 2D 12:10: 0 / 322 2D 15:00: 0 / 322 2D 17:40: 0 / 322 2D 19:50: 0 / 425 Total: 0 / 1391 -> 0% Total without Preview: 6 / 5873 -> 0.1% Total with Preview: 83 / 6445 -> 1.29% Monday 17thJune 2019 23:59 MESZ (T-2) CinemaxX Bremen Wednesday – Preview: 2D 20:00: 9 / 228 -> 2.59% Thursday: 2D 14:00: 0 / 288 2D 17:00: 0 / 454 2D 20:00: 2 / 454 2D 23:00: 0 / 454 Total: 2 / 1650 -> 0.12% Friday: 2D 14:00: 0 / 288 2D 17:00: 0 / 454 2D 20:00: 0 / 454 2D 23:00: 0 / 454 Total: 0 / 1650 -> 0% Saturday: 2D 11:45: 0 / 228 2D 14:00: 0 / 288 2D 17:00: 0 / 288 2D 20:00: 0 / 454 2D 23:00: 0 / 454 Total: 0 / 1712 -> 0% Sunday: 2D 12:00: 0 / 505 2D 14:00: 0 / 288 2D 17:00: 0 / 288 2D 20:00: 0 / 454 2D 23:00: 0 / 454 Total: 0 / 1989 -> 0% Total without Preview: 2 / 7001 -> 0.03% Total with Preview: 11 / 7229 -> 0.15% (T-2) Previews: 77 + 9+ 29 = 115 Thursday: 2 + 2 + 0 = 4 Friday: 2 + 0 + 3 = 5 Saturday: 2 + 0 + 2 = 4 Sunday: 0 + 0 + 0 = 0 Total wo Previews: 6 + 2 +5 = 13 Total w Previews: 83 + 11 + 34 = 128 Absolutely overindexed for the Previews at the Cinestar Bremen. Comps for this: Previews: Aladdin: 227 => 158k OWend incl. Previews John Wick 3: 412 => 92k OWend incl. Previews Godzilla: 146 => 126k OWend incl. Previews Rocketman: 112 => 145k OWend incl. Previews Dark Phoenix: 59 => 260k OWend incl. Previews MIBI: 44 => 320k OWend incl. Previews Probably almost all of them are useless, while this probably will have nice Previews I think the weekend will be rather bad, considering the good hold for Aladdin and the small holiday in southern Germany (about 30% of the population) I think Aladdin has a small chance at 100k 5thweekend and with that probably a chance at #1 for the fifth time in a row but right now I’d say FFA should do a little more maybe something around 120k (Godzilla) Wend: Aladdin: presales went on sale on Tuesday so a full day later John Wick 3: presales went on sale on Tuesday so a full day later Godzilla: 97 => 18.8k incl. Previews Rocketman: 48 => 32k incl. Previews Dark Phoenix: 53 => 30k invl. Previews MIBI: This were so few showings and all basically sold nothing that I just quickly looked through them. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted June 18, 2019 Author Share Posted June 18, 2019 Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Aladdin 140.490 658 214 1.258.225 11.667.176 -27 4 2 Men in Black - International 112.677 628 179 123.085 1.240.666 - 1 3 John Wick 3 70.986 549 129 930.812 8.670.241 -43 4 4 X-Men - Dark Phoenix 59.269 597 99 258.789 2.683.280 -52 2 5 Rocketman 59.048 606 97 381.287 3.497.592 -31 3 6 Godzilla 2 38.353 486 79 342.410 3.569.902 -48 3 7 Pokémon Detektive Pikachu 36.303 568 64 1.286.794 11.008.800 -30 6 8 TKKG 29.024 517 56 110.366 734.432 -4 2 9 Avengers - Endgame 22.922 289 79 4.986.437 56.167.001 -47 8 10 Ma 22.875 300 76 143.533 1.240.059 -44 3 11 The Dead Don't Die 20.590 131 157 37.528 277.361 - 1 12 The Hustle 17.865 282 63 620.756 5.116.721 -40 6 13 A Dog's Journey 15.122 256 59 15.122 112.045 - 1 14 The Queen's Corgi 9.657 341 28 237.394 1.601.251 +12 7 15 Der Fall Collini 6.159 229 27 717.937 6.276.012 -63 9 16 Buh-Ning 5.609 63 89 19.550 173.007 -33 2 17 Qu'est-ce qu'on a encore fait au Bon Dieu? 5.443 173 31 1.241.421 10.150.605 -48 11 18 Britt-Marie var här 5.416 100 54 7.872 58.250 - 1 19 Wonder Park 4.989 226 22 501.575 3.490.878 +4 10 20 Hollywoodtürke 4.897 53 92 4.897 41.945 - 1 Not too bad - at least, more than 10 movies with >10k admissions - but with MiB International near flopping, the overall weekend left a bitter aftertaste. I also expected a bit more from The Dead Don't Die … Next weekend: Three releases that might be positive surprises - Long Shot, Brightburn and Tolkien - but none of them with real hit potential; Aladdin might spend a 5th weekend on the throne. Also opening: Au bout des doigts, a french feel-good movie that might catch on - no big opener for sure but could have excellent legs. And there are quite a few previews for Pets2 which might hurt other family stuff a bit. 8 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny Max Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 So AEG is all set to cross 5 M admissions ... Nice ... Aladdin life time adm ... ?? any estimate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tower Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 (edited) 34 minutes ago, Sunny Max said: So AEG is all set to cross 5 M admissions ... Nice ... Aladdin life time adm ... ?? any estimate Insidekino does estimates every week, the current one for Aladdin is 1.55M. Edited June 18, 2019 by Tower 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted June 18, 2019 Author Share Posted June 18, 2019 1 hour ago, Sunny Max said: So AEG is all set to cross 5 M admissions ... Nice ... well, after the opening, 6mil seemed possible, so a bit underwhelming in that respect but still excellent result, btw, in Austria Endgame has already crossed 600k total, so it does better here than in Germany, and accordingly, Austrias May numbers are not too shabby - still far from satisfying but better than 2018 and 2017. (we had a really nasty May here, nearly three weeks of rain and cold ...) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny Max Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 3 hours ago, Tower said: Insidekino does estimates every week, the current one for Aladdin is 1.55M. Oh ok .. thank you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny Max Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 2 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said: well, after the opening, 6mil seemed possible, so a bit underwhelming in that respect but still excellent result, btw, in Austria Endgame has already crossed 600k total, so it does better here than in Germany, and accordingly, Austrias May numbers are not too shabby - still far from satisfying but better than 2018 and 2017. (we had a really nasty May here, nearly three weeks of rain and cold ...) hmmm yeah still excellent result .. but was expecting more .. thank you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 (edited) 6 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said: well, after the opening, 6mil seemed possible, so a bit underwhelming in that respect but still excellent result, btw, in Austria Endgame has already crossed 600k total, so it does better here than in Germany, and accordingly, Austrias May numbers are not too shabby - still far from satisfying but better than 2018 and 2017. (we had a really nasty May here, nearly three weeks of rain and cold ...) 4 hours ago, Sunny Max said: hmmm yeah still excellent result .. but was expecting more .. thank you During OWend I don't think 6m was really thought to be possible: On 4/25/2019 at 10:32 PM, Taruseth said: No, with better exchange rates surely. $50M are locked and $60M likely. for $70M ≈ €63 -> 5.5M (avg ticket price €11.46) that's a little too high. [...] On 2nd Friday when insidekino said 1+m 2nd Wend I went a little overboard and then 6m appeared to might be possible: On 5/3/2019 at 10:12 AM, Taruseth said: Wow, 1.05m Second Weekend, damn. Would mean like €12m ≈ $13.4m IW added 2.325m after OW, that would mean 6.2m final, but I guess that 1st May already was and that Endgame might drop when the weather get's better again will prevent it from getting that far, but it at least has a chance to get to that (which would make it the highest attended movie since TFA...) Right now I'd say realistic target is 5.7m. [...] 3 Even stayed a little too optimistic during the end of the 2nd Wend and saw a chance for it to go higher: On 5/5/2019 at 12:42 PM, Taruseth said: Wouldn't bet on it yet, but i'd say yes. $65m ≈ €58.3m ≈ 5.2m adm and it should get that without too many problems and actually could, approach 70m, so I won't go that far without knowing the drop next weekend. After that, the target was Spider-Man 1 (5.19m) with the realistic scenario being below it. On 5/10/2019 at 11:47 AM, Taruseth said: Endgame slightly worse than I thought: Reveal hidden contents Endgame vs TLJ (In brackets are the totals) - Final for TLJ was 5906k Before Weekend: 462k vs 0k -> +462k OWend: 1672k (2134k) vs 1627k -> +45k (+507k) OWdays: 707k (2841k) vs 490k (2117k) ->+217k (+724k) 2nd Wend: 871k (3712k) vs 721k (2838k) -> +150k (+874k) 2nd Wdays: 163k (3875k) vs 706k (3544k) -> -548k (+326k) 3rd Wend: 425k (4300k) vs 849k (4393k) -> -424k (+93k) 3rd Wdays: 90k (4390k) vs 351k (4744k) -> -261k (-354k) 4th Wend: 275k (4665k) vs 467k (5211k) -> -192k (-546k) 4th Wdays: 60k (4725k) vs 91k (5302k) -> -31k (-577k) 5th Wend: 150k (4875k) vs 202k (5504k) -> -52k (-629k) 5th Wdays: 35k (4910k) vs 49k (5553k) -> -14k (-643k) 6th Wend: 90k (5000k) vs 110k (5663k) -> -20k (-663k) 6th Wdays: 25k (5025k) vs 28k (5691k) -> -3k (-666k) TLJ had 215k more admissions after that, if Endgame would add that it would get to 5240k, which is probably the highest it could go, would mean a little below €60m, translating to ~$67m. It would also mean that it would beat Spider-Man 1 (5186k) in adm. More realistic would probably a finish closer to 5m adm and with that slightly below Spider-Man 1. 2 And from there on it always was around 5m, some bad drops made me lower the final one to a little below 5m but then holidays made it rise above 5m again but not by much. I'd say that the 2nd and 3rd Wend drop basically pointed towards something around 5m (I thought it might be able to develop somewhat better legs) but for a movie that increased that much compared to the other movies in an almost dead market, I think that's really impressive. Edited June 18, 2019 by Taruseth Changed a small part in the beginning because I hope it sounds better now 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny Max Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, Taruseth said: During OWend I don't think 6m was really in the room: On 4/26/2019 at 1:32 AM, Taruseth said: Hmmm okkk .. but still its excellent result .. 5 M admissions .. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 (edited) Five Feet apart: Spoiler Wednesday 19thJune 2019 23:59 MESZ (T-0) Cinestar Bremen Thursday: 2D 15:00: 0 / 322 2D 17:40: 0 / 322 2D 19:50: 12 / 425 2D 22:45: 0 / 425 Total: 12 / 1494 -> 0.8% (+10) Friday: 2D 15:00: 0 / 322 2D 17:40: 0 / 322 2D 19:50: 6 / 425 2D 22:45: 0 / 425 Total: 6 / 1494 -> 0.4% (+4) Saturday: 2D 15:00: 2 / 322 2D 17:40: 0 / 322 2D 19:50: 2 / 425 2D 22:45: 2 / 425 Total: 6 / 1494 -> 0.4% (+4) Sunday: 2D 12:10: 0 / 322 2D 15:00: 2 / 322 2D 17:40: 0 / 322 2D 19:50: 0 / 425 Total: 2 / 1391 -> 0.26% (+2) Total without Preview: 26 / 5873 -> 0.48% (+20) Wednesday 19thJune 2019 23:59 MESZ (T-0) CinemaxX Bremen Thursday: 2D 14:00: 0 / 288 2D 17:00: 4 / 454 2D 20:00: 2 / 454 2D 23:00: 0 / 454 Total: 6 / 1650 -> 0.12% (+4) Friday: 2D 14:00: 0 / 288 2D 17:00: 0 / 454 2D 20:00: 0 / 454 2D 23:00: 0 / 454 Total: 0 / 1650 -> 0% Saturday: 2D 11:45: 0 / 228 2D 14:00: 3 / 288 2D 17:00: 0 / 288 2D 20:00: 0 / 454 2D 23:00: 0 / 454 Total: 3 / 1712 -> 0% (+3) Sunday: 2D 12:00: 0 / 505 2D 14:00: 0 / 288 2D 17:00: 0 / 288 2D 20:00: 0 / 454 2D 23:00: 0 / 454 Total: 0 / 1989 -> 0% Total without Preview: 9 / 7001 -> 0.13% (+7) Wednesday 19th June 2019 23:59 MESZ (T-0) Cinestar Metropolis Frankfurt Thursday: 2D 14:00: 8 / 273 2D 16:50: 9 / 273 2D 19:45: 16 / 273 2D 22:40: 4 / 273 Total: 37 / 1092 -> 3.39 % (+37) Friday: 2D 14:00: 2 / 273 2D 16:50: 5 / 273 2D 19:45: 3 / 273 2D 22:40: 0 / 273 Total: 10 / 1092 -> 0.92 % (+7) Saturday: 2D 14:00: 3 / 273 2D 16:50: 0 / 273 2D 19:45: 0 / 273 2D 22:40: 0 / 273 Total: 3 / 1092 -> 0.27 % (+1) Sunday: 2D 14:00: 0 / 273 2D 16:50: 0 / 273 2D 19:45: 0 / 273 2D 22:40: 0 / 273 Total: 0 / 1092 -> 0 % (+0) Total without Previews: 50 / 4368 -> 1.14% (+45) (T-0) Thursday: 12 +6 + 37 = 55 Friday: 6 + 0 + 10 = 16 Saturday: 6 + 3 + 3 = 12 Sunday: 2 + 0 + 0 = 2 Total wo Previews: 26 + 9 +50 = 85 Wend: Aladdin: 493 => 50k + 7k = 57k John Wick 3: 967 => 25k + 4k = 29k Godzilla: 328 => 36 k + 6k = 42k Rocketman: 175 => 58k + 8k = 66k Dark Phoenix: 333 => 32k + 5k = 37k MIBI: 221 => 43k + 7k = 50k So 60k??? (No idea) These look awful I only did a quick check for Long Shot I’d say Long Shot looks somewhat similar to this movie and Brightburn has basically sold nothing, not even tomorrow, I guess that movie could open below 25k. If these would turn out true Aladdin would defend #1 for a fifth! week The last movie to be #1 for five weekends was Despicable Me 3 (1st-4th weekend and 6th weekend). The last movie to do that consecutive was Minions in 2015! with 5 (1st-5th and 7th and 10th, yeah Germany loved that movie) Not even TFA did 5 weekends at #1. Though I guess that this might be rather walkup heavy and in the end will be able to top 100k or maybe (probably more likely) Long Shot is actually the winner and has more than 100k adm over the Wend. Edited June 19, 2019 by Taruseth 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 Pets 2: (T-3) Sold: 95 / 2768 -> 3.43% Comps.: Rocketman ~90 Godzilla ~110 John Wick 3: 326 Aladdin: 173 Dark Phoenix: 47 MIBI: 43 Five Feet Apart: 100 So looks okay I’d say nothing big but this is also for a Sunday so I think that it still has the chance to out open every other Summer movie (but Endgame) on the true weekend even though preview numbers don’t suggest it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted June 21, 2019 Author Share Posted June 21, 2019 Early weekend estimates from insidekino.de: Aladdin stays on top with 150k admissions (increase!!!), best opener Five Feet Apart with 125k; overall good holds. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omni Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 Bad weather? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted June 21, 2019 Author Share Posted June 21, 2019 1 hour ago, Omni said: Bad weather? Weather is not much different from last weekend I'd say but it's a kind of long weekend (Thu a holiday in many regions and Austria) which does help a lot. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...