Taruseth Posted August 17, 2019 Share Posted August 17, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, john2000 said: where lion king will end in dollars ? 60 ? Thinking $53-55M** (€48-50M* ≈ 5.15-5.375M admissions). $60M ≈ €54M ≈ 5.8M admissions, while that isn't impossible I'd say that has about a 5% chance of happening. Though obviously one great hold next weekend, TLK being flat suddenly could change quite something. If TLK really is at 4.4M after the weekend, than it could be at 4.5M after the weekdays and then with a great weekend hold helped by no major new openers it could be at 4.75M after the 6th weekend. So I don't see it ending below 5M anymore and would say that with about 90% certainty it will beat Endgame (5.13M). Which is way ahead of what I initially thought before the OWend ($35-40M) which even after the OWend would have been a reasonable but slightly pessimistic expectations. I also don't want to get to excited and than overshoot by quite some amount considering I thought Endgame could beat Spider-Man but now will fall short by only around 50-60k ad. ** ER €1 ≈ $1.11 * ATP €9.3 might be too low, ATP over the first 4 weekends was €9.4297 while it was €9.7039 for the 4th weekend. Thinking it will drop due to the higher 2D share for the rest of its run but not by too much as the gross will concentrate more on the weekends. Edited August 17, 2019 by Taruseth 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted August 17, 2019 Share Posted August 17, 2019 23 hours ago, TalismanRing said: And be at best mediocre On a serious note: Being good doesn't prevent a movie from being big in Germany (LOTR ). But it just doesn't really seem to help either... There's really much crap doing good numbers here (After one of only14 movies to have more than 1M admissions yet ). But I really wonder what sort of movie could make people want to watch it massively. Those are the biggest movies since 2010: Admissions Gross in € OWeek 1 9.160.438 64.048.325 Intouchables 442.390 2012 2 9.060.311 102.576.103 SW7 3.269.814 2015 3 7.825.760 65.883.386 Skyfall 2.644.828 2012 4 7.734.265 63.040.489 Fack Ju Göhte 2 2.718.948 2015 5 7.411.899 54.997.906 Fack Ju Göhte 1.197.246 2013 6 7.274.964 58.506.360 Honig im Kopf 1.030.699 2014 7 7.089.386 67.400.030 Spectre 2.459.198 2015 8 6.945.769 57.929.442 Minions 1.353.739 2015 9 6.700.208 52.041.305 Ice Age 4 1.497.726 2012 10 6.689.410 68.909.540 TH1 1.542.460 2012 11 6.499.514 58.571.390 HP7.2 2.341.762 2011 12 6.136.279 53.347.812 Fack Ju Göhte 3 2.895.338 2017 13 6.098.029 64.831.146 TH2 1.671.133 2013 14 6.066.455 64.914.921 TH3 1.676.036 2014 http://www.insidekino.de/DJahr/D2010-2019.htm *Italic ones are German Apart from it not being that many: 8 out of 14 are from 2012 and 2015 and since then there was just one in 2017 (I hope there's at least SW9 this year getting there). And 11 of them are sequels (or prequels), though that's probably a Trend everywhere... And to answer your post: At least half of those aren't that bad 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted August 17, 2019 Share Posted August 17, 2019 (edited) Spoiler 1 hour ago, Aristis said: On a serious note: Being good doesn't prevent a movie from being big in Germany (LOTR ). But it just doesn't really seem to help either... There's really much crap doing good numbers here (After one of only14 movies to have more than 1M admissions yet ). But I really wonder what sort of movie could make people want to watch it massively. Those are the biggest movies since 2010: Admissions Gross in € OWeek 1 9.160.438 64.048.325 Intouchables 442.390 2012 2 9.060.311 102.576.103 SW7 3.269.814 2015 3 7.825.760 65.883.386 Skyfall 2.644.828 2012 4 7.734.265 63.040.489 Fack Ju Göhte 2 2.718.948 2015 5 7.411.899 54.997.906 Fack Ju Göhte 1.197.246 2013 6 7.274.964 58.506.360 Honig im Kopf 1.030.699 2014 7 7.089.386 67.400.030 Spectre 2.459.198 2015 8 6.945.769 57.929.442 Minions 1.353.739 2015 9 6.700.208 52.041.305 Ice Age 4 1.497.726 2012 10 6.689.410 68.909.540 TH1 1.542.460 2012 11 6.499.514 58.571.390 HP7.2 2.341.762 2011 12 6.136.279 53.347.812 Fack Ju Göhte 3 2.895.338 2017 13 6.098.029 64.831.146 TH2 1.671.133 2013 14 6.066.455 64.914.921 TH3 1.676.036 2014 http://www.insidekino.de/DJahr/D2010-2019.htm *Italic ones are German Apart from it not being that many: 8 out of 14 are from 2012 and 2015 and since then there was just one in 2017 (I hope there's at least SW9 this year getting there). And 11 of them are sequels (or prequels), though that's probably a Trend everywhere... And to answer your post: At least half of those aren't that bad After is awful, haven't watched the movie but tried to read the books on wattpad... Being good only helps if the movie is really exceptionally good like LOTR. No idea why Toy Story never worked here. That are 3x Back Ju Göhte (a stupid light hearted comedy), 3x Hobbit, 2x James Bond, then two funny animation movies (minions and Ice Age 4). Honestly thinking being light hearted and silly helps here, real life is sad and stressful enough no need to see that in movies too. Or on the other hand Intouchables is a rather emotional, heartfelt but still hopeful movie. SW and Harry Potter is something different I guess, big fantasy/sci-fi movies (like Hobbit) tend to do well here too. the yearly winner this year are: 2010: HP7 2011: HP8 2012: Intouchables 2013: Fack Ju Göhte 2014: Honig im Kopf 2015: SW - TFA 2016: SW - RO 2017: Fack Ju Göhte 3 2018: Fantastic Beast 2 2019: Endgame -> TLK -> RTOS (my expectations for the yearly winner). That would be: HP: 3x SW: 3x FJG: 2x and then two other winners. LOTR was in another dimension compared to movies today. But I find it so weird that 2012 and 2015 were so strong (#1-4, #7-10) are from those two years only two movies not from those two years and this year won't change that. Frozen 2 and IX most likely won't get above 6.5M (for Frozen 2 grossing 5M admissions would be incredible). For Germany to stay Germany, Frozen 2 and IX and TLK all need to get above 5.15M admissions so no superhero movie in the top 3. Edited August 17, 2019 by Taruseth 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted August 17, 2019 Share Posted August 17, 2019 (edited) Saturday numbers (CS Bremen): Hollywood: 2D 13:50: 25 / 322 (12:15: 6) 2D 16:30: 46 / 425 (12:15: 16) 2D 19:40: 173 / 572 (12:15: 91) 2D 20:15: 189 / 425 (12:15: 77) 2D 22:40: 45 / 425 (12:15: 6) Total: 478 / 2169 (12:15: 177) +170.1% Comp to yesterday: + 130 / nc => +37.4%! Toy Story 4: 3D 14:10: 23 / 279 (12:15: 😎 3D 16:45: 31 / 279 (12:15: 4) 2D 14:30: 93 / 425 (12:15: 18 ) 2D 17:10: 76 / 572 (12:15: 17) 2D 19:30: 79 / 279 (12:15: 24) 2D 22:30: 18 / 280 (12:15: 3) Total: 320 / 2114 (12:15: 74) +332.4% Comp to yesterday: + 177 / nc => +123.8%! Hobbs & Shaw: 2D 13:30: 0 / 296 (12:15: 0) 2D 16:50: 73 / 296 (12:15: 36) 2D 19:20: 180 / 425 (12:15: 52) 2D 22:10: 101 / 279 (12:15: 0) Total: 354 / 1296 (12:15: 88) + 302.3% Comp to yesterday: + 130 / +129 => +58% The Lion King: 3D 13:40: 17 / 425 (12:15: 8 ) 3D 16:20: 32 / 170 (12:15: 10) 3D 20:20: 104 / 322 (12:15: 20) 2D 14:20: 61 / 572 (12:15: 14) 2D 17:30: 82 / 322 (12:15: 9) 2D 20:00: 132 / 294 (12:15: 39) 2D 22:20: 28 / 156 (12:15: 4) Total: 456 / 2261 (12:15: 104) +338.5% Comp to yesterday: + 205 / +14 => +81.7% Afternoon and evening showings (after 5pm: 346 that's just 22.2% behind the 3rd saturday and 23.1% behind the 2nd Saturday and just 35.3% behind the OWend Saturday) Bold one is the show with the highest amount of admissions sold. Shows the stark difference between the other three and TS4. TS4 is stronger than the others during the day but the others get stronger during the late afternoon/early evening and all three have the strongest showing at 8pm. Furthermore it shows that TLK is skewing towards late afternoon and evening while Hollywood and H&S more towards evening and night. The Friday and Saturday jumps are so good because school started on Thursday so they don't paint the general picture in Germany. None the less I am optimistic about all movies despite better weather in souther Germany, but I doubt that Hollywood will increase. Not certain about TLK could happen but not sold on it. Thinking TS4 might actually increase but probably by only 5k. H&S shouldn't change. Tomorrow won't be a nice day so because most parts of Germany are supposed to have warm weather, only the north is supposed to still be rather rainy. TLK needs to have had a really, really nice Friday and an incredible Sunday for it to still get to 325k. Another interesting thing is that TLK got really close to Hollywood today, let's see what happens tomorrow when TLK and TS4 afaik get a morning showing too. And if that foreshadows what will happen next weekend. The next two weekends should have a single movie opening above 200k, actually I think all but Good Boys and Playmobil will even open above 100k and both of those could barely open above that. What I want to say with that is, TLK could theoretically - if Hollywood is holding only good but TLK continues to hold really well - return to the #1 for two more weeks before It 2 opens during the first September weekend. Next weekend we could be looking at a 255k vs 250k situation. Unless Hollywood gets good WoM then it could stay above 300k. Or not weather forecast for next weekend actually looks warm, like really warm. But now let's take a different look and only look at the showings before 3pm so only midday showings, no early afternoon and no afternoon/evening showings: Hollywood: 25 TS4: 116 H&S: 0 TLK: 78 Total: 219 Afternoon showings (between 3pm and 6pm): Hollywood: 46 TS4: 107 H&S: 73 TLK: 114 Total: 340 Evening showings (6pm - 10pm); Hollywood: 362 TS4: 79 H&S: 180 TLK: 232 Total: 853 Night showings (after 10pm): Hollywood: 45 TS4: 18 H&S: 101 TLK: 28 Total: 192 Bold one is strongest in the window, also shows that overall the evening showings are the most important part of the day. What isn't reflected in the bold ones is that TLK and H&S peak in the evening showings too. Edited August 17, 2019 by Taruseth 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted August 18, 2019 Share Posted August 18, 2019 (edited) TLK and H&S up again, this time by 15k and 20k and Leber down again by 15k. 3rd insidekino trend: Hollywood: 405k+70k TLK: 325k (Yes, actually looks like it will the 325k during the weekend) TS4: 225k H&S: 180k Leber: 125k Pets 2: 75k Benjamin B.: 37.5k Yesterday: 37.5k Die drei !!!: 27.5k Spidey: 27.5k Und wer nimmt den Hund?: 25k Counting today again, don't know if I will do all considering I already missed the morning showing of TLK but got both for TS4 which were really strong 90 tickets for TS4 in those two alone. While today the weather is supposed to be really hot (like 33-34 °C) in southern Germany I still think that the rest will be able to make up for it and push TLK, TS4 and maybe Pets 2 a little higher. Maybe towards 335k, 235k and 80k or so. Damn, midday showings are insane for TS4 and TLK, both sold 200+ tickets for the 2pm 2d showing alone!. Hollywood: OV 2D 19:40: 52 / 280 2D 13:50: 69 / 322 2D 16:30: 112 / 425 2D 19:40: 91 / 572 2D 20:15: 71 / 425 Total: 395 / 2024 Comp to yesterday: - 83 / -145 => -17.4% Toy Story 4: 3D 11:40: 16 / 279 3D 14:10: 46 / 279 3D 16:45: 30 / 279 2D 11:50: 74 / 572 2D 14:30: 228 / 425 (53.6% sold pretty insane) 2D 17:10: 77 / 572 2D 19:30: 13 / 279 Total: 484 / 2685 Comp to yesterday: + 164 / + 571 => +51.25% Hobbs & Shaw: 2D 13:30: 14 / 296 2D 16:50: 98 / 296 2D 19:20: 89 / 425 Total: 201 / 1017 Comp to yesterday: - 153 / -279=> -43.2% The Lion King: 3D 13:40: 101 / 425 (just a quick reminder yesterday this was 15 tickets) 3D 16:20: 115 / 170 (67.6% sold!!!!!) 3D 20:20: 43 / 322 2D 11:10: ??? / ??? (thinking this might have done well, probably missed 50-75 tickets here) 2D 14:20: 225 / 572 (3 tickets behind TS4) 2D 17:30: 118 / 322 2D 20:00: 45 / 294 Total: 647 / 2105 Comp to yesterday: + 191 / -156=> +41.9% I think the 11:10 show was in a 425 seats room so seat count would actually have increase by quite something today. So maybe 700 tickets on the whole days morning showings (before noon) Hollywood: 0 TS4: 90 H&S: 0 TLK: 50-75 Total: 140-165 midday showings (noon to 3pm): Hollywood: 69 TS4: 274 H&S: 14 TLK: 326 Total: 683 Afternoon showings (between 3pm and 6pm): Hollywood: 112 TS4: 107 H&S: 98 TLK: 233 Total: 550 Evening showings (6pm - 10pm); Hollywood: 214 TS4: 13 H&S: 89 TLK: 88 Total: 404 Night showings (after 10pm): No night showings on Sunday TLK interestingly today had higher midday showings than TS4. TLK won the day by a big margin. Today was a great day for TS4 and TLK, I think the family movies could end up a little higher. Edited August 18, 2019 by Taruseth 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted August 18, 2019 Share Posted August 18, 2019 23 hours ago, Aristis said: On a serious note: Being good doesn't prevent a movie from being big in Germany (LOTR ). But it just doesn't really seem to help either... There's really much crap doing good numbers here (After one of only14 movies to have more than 1M admissions yet ). But I really wonder what sort of movie could make people want to watch it massively. Those are the biggest movies since 2010: Admissions Gross in € OWeek 1 9.160.438 64.048.325 Intouchables 442.390 2012 2 9.060.311 102.576.103 SW7 3.269.814 2015 3 7.825.760 65.883.386 Skyfall 2.644.828 2012 4 7.734.265 63.040.489 Fack Ju Göhte 2 2.718.948 2015 5 7.411.899 54.997.906 Fack Ju Göhte 1.197.246 2013 6 7.274.964 58.506.360 Honig im Kopf 1.030.699 2014 7 7.089.386 67.400.030 Spectre 2.459.198 2015 8 6.945.769 57.929.442 Minions 1.353.739 2015 9 6.700.208 52.041.305 Ice Age 4 1.497.726 2012 10 6.689.410 68.909.540 TH1 1.542.460 2012 11 6.499.514 58.571.390 HP7.2 2.341.762 2011 12 6.136.279 53.347.812 Fack Ju Göhte 3 2.895.338 2017 13 6.098.029 64.831.146 TH2 1.671.133 2013 14 6.066.455 64.914.921 TH3 1.676.036 2014 http://www.insidekino.de/DJahr/D2010-2019.htm *Italic ones are German Apart from it not being that many: 8 out of 14 are from 2012 and 2015 and since then there was just one in 2017 (I hope there's at least SW9 this year getting there). And 11 of them are sequels (or prequels), though that's probably a Trend everywhere... And to answer your post: At least half of those aren't that bad The decline of German cinema cannot be clearer with this chart when none of them hit 10m admission and you have 6 of them in 2000s and 3 of them in 1990s(Pretty woman got 10m in Germany!). I can only find 1980s as another decade that feature zero 10m hit. The worst is, the top non-hollywood film isn't a German film either! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted August 18, 2019 Share Posted August 18, 2019 3 hours ago, titanic2187 said: The decline of German cinema cannot be clearer with this chart when none of them hit 10m admission and you have 6 of them in 2000s and 3 of them in 1990s(Pretty woman got 10m in Germany!). I can only find 1980s as another decade that feature zero 10m hit. The worst is, the top non-hollywood film isn't a German film either! The early 2000 were really strong, 3 movies above 10m in 2001. The first year to have a higher number in total sold than 2001 is 1969. The german cinema has always been in the 100-140 dam corridor the 1980s were an awful decade for cinemas as out of the 10 lowest years (below 115m) 1984-1990+1992 are part of it, only years outside of that time are 2018 and 1976. From 1992 to 2001 the adm count increase from 106M to 178M, I still don't know what lead to a growth like that. And dropped back to 105M in 2018 again. But after cinema got slowly killed by higher ticket prices, changing international taste, television, streaming services and I don't know what. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 (edited) Monday morning estimates (Blickpunkt:film and insidekino): Hollywood:435k (€4500k ≈ $4920k) +70k TLK: 330k* (€3100k ≈ $3390k) (Total above 4400k adm.**) TS4: 245k (€2000k ≈ $2185k) H&S: 195k (€1850k ≈ $2025k) Leber: 132.5k (€1100k ≈ $1200k) Pets 2: 82.5k *best 5th weekend of the year and as the previous best week was 249k its also the best 5th week already. Should be the best 5th weekend since Fack Ju Göhte 2 in October 2015 (359k), a bit above TFA's of 324k. ** in € it should have entered the Top50 this weekend, needs 40M for that. Most likely (like 98% likely) it won't enter the Top 100 ever in admissions because therefore it would need 5.863M. Edited August 19, 2019 by Taruseth 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 13 hours ago, titanic2187 said: The decline of German cinema cannot be clearer with this chart when none of them hit 10m admission and you have 6 of them in 2000s and 3 of them in 1990s(Pretty woman got 10m in Germany!). I can only find 1980s as another decade that feature zero 10m hit. The worst is, the top non-hollywood film isn't a German film either! 9 hours ago, Taruseth said: The early 2000 were really strong, 3 movies above 10m in 2001. The first year to have a higher number in total sold than 2001 is 1969. The german cinema has always been in the 100-140 dam corridor the 1980s were an awful decade for cinemas as out of the 10 lowest years (below 115m) 1984-1990+1992 are part of it, only years outside of that time are 2018 and 1976. From 1992 to 2001 the adm count increase from 106M to 178M, I still don't know what lead to a growth like that. And dropped back to 105M in 2018 again. But after cinema got slowly killed by higher ticket prices, changing international taste, television, streaming services and I don't know what. The thing is, in the 80s it's just the western German numbers and the 90s had some economical problems. Being that bad now while economy is quite good is even worse. (Btw. does anybody know since when it's the united German numbers? 1989 [101,2M], 1990 [102,5M], 1991 [120M], 1992 [105,9M] I would suspect that it's since 1991 but I really don't know... Finding numbers for the eastern Germany isn't easy) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, Aristis said: The thing is, in the 80s it's just the western German numbers and the 90s had some economical problems. Being that bad now while economy is quite good is even worse. (Btw. does anybody know since when it's the united German numbers? 1989 [101,2M], 1990 [102,5M], 1991 [120M], 1992 [105,9M] I would suspect that it's since 1991 but I really don't know... Finding numbers for the eastern Germany isn't easy) 70s and 60s were just western germany's numbers too... But not as bad as the 80s. But the late 90s, early 2000s weren't the best time economically either, none the less cinema was doing well. And even 2008/2009 weren't that bad despite a bad economy. Question is when will we have the first year below 100M? 2020? I think 1991 would be the first year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, Taruseth said: 70s and 60s were just western germany's numbers too... But not as bad as the 80s. But the late 90s, early 2000s weren't the best time economically either, none the less cinema was doing well. And even 2008/2009 weren't that bad despite a bad economy. Question is when will we have the first year below 100M? 2020? I think 1991 would be the first year. I know about that, numbers are just western Germany for 50s to 80s. It was just to compare the 80s to today. I found some of the DDR numbers. Though sadly only some mentioned in articles and no full statistics... year / BRD / DDR / whole Germany 1988 / 108,9M / ~70M / ~178,9M 1989 / 101,2M / 65M / 166,2M So if 120M in 1991 is the number for united Germany than it'd be quite a big drop that is probably mostly due to much lower numbers in the east (much higher TP in united Germany, depressed market...). Maybe the growing numbers in late 90s and early 00s are partly eastern German recovery? Though that would probably just be 10M more or something like that. But I think it's quite interesting that 2001 is around as big as 1988 accounting for whole Germany. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 1 hour ago, Aristis said: I know about that, numbers are just western Germany for 50s to 80s. It was just to compare the 80s to today. I found some of the DDR numbers. Though sadly only some mentioned in articles and no full statistics... year / BRD / DDR / whole Germany 1988 / 108,9M / ~70M / ~178,9M 1989 / 101,2M / 65M / 166,2M So if 120M in 1991 is the number for united Germany than it'd be quite a big drop that is probably mostly due to much lower numbers in the east (much higher TP in united Germany, depressed market...). Maybe the growing numbers in late 90s and early 00s are partly eastern German recovery? Though that would probably just be 10M more or something like that. But I think it's quite interesting that 2001 is around as big as 1988 accounting for whole Germany. DDR was a lot stronger than I thought (due to low TP but none the less). Thinking the 90s and early 00s numbers might have been more because Germany as a whole recovered, the east from the shock of reuniting and the west from the somewhat weaker economy in the late 80s. Even if there were some crisis around that time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted August 20, 2019 Author Share Posted August 20, 2019 Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 438.998 610 720 509.962 5.198.077 - 1 2 The Lion King 331.868 642 517 4.404.538 41.180.256 -18 5 3 Toy Story 4 238.309 542 440 240.359 1.927.139 - 1 4 Fast & Furious - Hobbs & Shaw 196.177 638 307 1.269.633 11.836.873 -31 3 5 Leberkäsjunkie 133.781 311 430 761.172 6.113.802 -18 3 6 Pets 2 83.248 699 119 2.214.973 16.994.889 -14 8 7 Benjamin Blümchen 46.770 581 80 279.566 1.835.953 -9 3 8 Yesterday 41.222 450 92 647.382 5.421.672 -13 6 9 Die drei !!! 34.986 529 66 296.344 1.943.580 -11 4 10 Spider-Man - Far From Home 32.541 352 92 1.711.319 16.779.342 -39 7 11 Und wer nimmt den Hund? 28.726 121 237 82.167 681.187 +1 2 12 Annabelle 18.389 273 67 527.173 4.646.740 -24 7 13 Dolor y gloria 15.697 127 124 150.816 1.275.999 -19 4 14 Aladdin 13.963 191 73 1.933.605 17.476.773 -12 13 15 Fisherman's Friends 12.226 139 88 65.049 489.530 -23 2 16 Bohemian Rhapsody 11.501 94 122 3.656.052 33.567.552 -14 42 17 Five Feet Apart 10.302 194 53 625.180 4.920.922 -35 9 18 Der Junge muss an die frische Luft 7.870 73 108 3.717.295 30.803.043 -39 34 19 Celle que Vous Croyez 7.624 64 119 21.181 169.205 +1 2 20 Rocketman 5.973 107 56 659.292 5.902.546 -49 12 Some people had very high expectations but I think overall this was a good weekend. With the exception of Toy Story 4, but as mentioned, somehow this franchise never made it big in German-speaking markets, and with strong in-house comptetition it never stood a chance - Lion King otoh is doing great and will blow past the 5mil mark. Once Upon a Time … has a (slim) chance at 2mil total, it seemed to generate very good WOM. Leberkäsjunkie still strong, about 180k ahead of last year's release in the franchise at the same point which means 1mil total is nearly locked and it has a good chance at becoming the highest-grossing entry in the series. Next weekend: Crawl, Good Boys, Gloria Bell, Stuber, Aardvark, some local releases - a lot of interesting stuff but nothing to dethrone OuaTiH as the leader I'd say except a stellar hold from LionKing. Good Boys might make the Top3. 7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 1 minute ago, IndustriousAngel said: Germany's Top20 last weekend: [...] Some people had very high expectations but I think overall this was a good weekend. With the exception of Toy Story 4, but as mentioned, somehow this franchise never made it big in German-speaking markets, and with strong in-house comptetition it never stood a chance - Lion King otoh is doing great and will blow past the 5mil mark. Once Upon a Time … has a (slim) chance at 2mil total, it seemed to generate very good WOM. Leberkäsjunkie still strong, about 180k ahead of last year's release in the franchise at the same point which means 1mil total is nearly locked and it has a good chance at becoming the highest-grossing entry in the series. Next weekend: Crawl, Good Boys, Gloria Bell, Stuber, Aardvark, some local releases - a lot of interesting stuff but nothing to dethrone OuaTiH as the leader I'd say except a stellar hold from LionKing. Good Boys might make the Top3. Agree with you, the weekend overall was good, Hollywood did good (nothing great, but good). TLK really wants to top Endgame. As the weather report for next weekend looks really sunny and hot I'd say Hollywood will stay #1 quite comfortably, with meh weather TLK might have had a tiny chance but not with great weather as Hollywood will probably be a little less weather dependent. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dada Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 Germany Weekend 33 2019.8.16-8.18 Euro Rank Name WKBO WKAD Scr TOBO TOAD 1 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood €4,513,095 438,998 720 €5,198,077 509,962 2 The Lion King €3,073,365 331,868 517 €41,180,256 4,404,538 3 Toy Story 4 €1,909,800 238,309 440 €1,927,139 240,359 4 Hobbs & Shaw €1,853,361 196,177 307 €11,836,873 1,269,633 5 Leberkäsjunkie €1,129,562 133,781 430 €6,113,802 761,172 6 The Secret Life of Pets 2 €592,392 83,248 119 €16,994,889 2,214,973 7 Yesterday €351,660 41,222 92 €5,421,672 647,382 8 Benjamin Blümchen €310,718 46,770 80 €1,835,953 279,566 9 Spider-Man: Far from Home €301,358 32,541 92 €16,779,342 1,711,319 10 Und wer nimmt den Hund? €251,781 28,726 237 €681,187 82,167 India film Mission Mangal got €33,509 and 2,793 in 27 theaters 103 screens. Avengers: Endgame cume to €57,386,670 and 5,113,182 AD. BTS - Bring the Soul: The Movie have a -98% huge flop ,now total €590,804 and 48,262 Iceland blockbuster Under the Tree close in €78,141 and 12,192AD. Austria Weekend 33 2019.8.16-8.18 Euro Rank Name WKBO WKAD Scr TOBO TOAD 1 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood €443,035 39,463 88 €810,099 73,059 2 The Lion King €242,945 23,188 95 €6,966,819 675,537 3 Hobbs & Shaw €179,782 16,987 69 €1,949,806 185,840 4 Leberkäsjunkie €155,782 16,745 88 €1,435,668 162,243 5 Toy Story 4 €128,668 13,421 73 €207,579 21,694 6 The Secret Life of Pets 2 €27,360 3,171 73 €2,349,055 276,638 7 Spider-Man: Far from Home €20,579 1,964 38 €2,513,819 234,773 8 Annabelle Comes Home €17,142 1,691 34 €911,003 95,455 9 Yesterday €15,007 1,641 51 €885,024 100,932 10 Benjamin Blümchen €12,581 1,740 62 €183,899 24,905 7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted August 23, 2019 Author Share Posted August 23, 2019 (edited) With yesterday's numbers, the Top 3 should be OuTiH (-20%), LionKing (-35%) and Leberkäs (-5% ?!?!); TS4 seems to implode (no detailed numbers but might drop >50%) - strange; let's see what insidekino reports; have to go now. Edited August 23, 2019 by IndustriousAngel 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 (edited) Great weather, awful first Trend, I hope it gets better... OUATIH 200k (-54%/-61%) 895k TLK 110k (-67%) 4,64M Leberkäs... 90k (-33%) 920k Good Boys 95k TS4 60k (-75%) Well... H&S 60k (-69%) Edit: Thursday numbers aren't that bad (OUATIH 50k, TLK 26k) so those predictions have extremely low multiplers... Edited August 23, 2019 by Aristis 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, Aristis said: Great weather, awful first Trend, I hope it gets better... OUATIH 200k (-54%/-61%) 895k TLK 110k (-67%) 4,64M Leberkäs... 90k (-33%) 920k Good Boys 95k TS4 60k (-75%) Well... H&S 60k (-69%) Edit: Thursday numbers aren't that bad (OUATIH 50k, TLK 26k) so those predictions have extremely low multiplers... So weekdays for TLK were 125k. Some further thursday numbers and €/$ for Hollywood and TLK: Hollywood: 50k (€450k ≈ $500k) TLK: 26k (€230k ≈ $255k) Leberkäs: 23k (€200k ≈ $220k) Good Boys: 20k (€155k ≈ $170k) H&S: 14.5k (€130k ≈ $145k) Crawl: 4k (€35k ≈ $39k) Stuber: 3.6k (€30k ≈ $33k) Gloria: 2k (€13.5k ≈ $15k) I am Mother: 1k (8.6k ≈ $9.55k) This are the comps to last Thursday: On 8/16/2019 at 7:39 AM, Taruseth said: Thursday actuals (Blickpunkt:film): Hollywood: 100k (€1000k ≈ $1110k) TLK: 75k (€660k ≈ $732.5k) (-11.7%) TS4: 55k (€435k ≈ $482.5k) Leber...: 50k (€385k ≈ $427.5k) (+61%) H&S: 40k (€350k ≈ 390k) (-27.3%) Apparently TLK barely dropped and locally the drops a lot harsher than overall. Not certain the Leberk. number is correct, that would be an insane increase. I think the movies will end the weekend in this order too. So Hollywood dropped 50%, TLK dropped 65%, Leberkäs doesn't matter as it had a holiday last week in Bavaria and Bavaria already had really hot weather last Saturday and Sunday so the IM last weekend was like a 2.5 or so. As you see TS4 wasn't even reported so it isn't part of the top 5, so probably around 12-13k, which would be a drop of 76%. Thinking that Hollywood and TLK might have some hope ending up a little higher, I have my doubts about TS4. What makes it even worse, TS4. TS4 was probably around 305k after it's first week, so after it's 2nd weekend it would be at 365k (that would be the opening weekend of TS3). It would also mean that it might loose screens faster as cinemas will try to rather keep TLK, so we might be looking at a final total below 800k. Needs to increase nicely next weekend for that to happen considering if it would fade away after this weekend the target would be 500k and let's not talk about that considering it would be a 70% dropped compared to TS3 and something like 75% drop in $. TLK's chance of getting higher than Endgame have been greatly hurt this weekend, none the less if it is able to increase next weekend there would still be a really solid chance. Problem for TLK is that so many movies are opening and it's in its 6th weekend. Furthermore this weekend for TS4 will be the first 2nd weekend ever to be below 100k, previously it was Arlo & Spot with 118k which was the first 2nd weekend below 150k. Highly likely that it will replace Arlo&Spot as the lowest grossing Pixar movie, unless it is able to jump back up next weekend, none the less it would only pass Arlo&Spot and as the 2nd worst. Edited August 23, 2019 by Taruseth 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="und" dir="ltr"><a href="https://t.co/FRfoznehFQ">pic.twitter.com/FRfoznehFQ</a></p>— InsideKino (@MarkGInsideKino) <a href="https://twitter.com/MarkGInsideKino/status/1164885262255775747?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">23. August 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> Small correction for September 2015-August 2019 the actual list would need to be: SW TFA: 9.1M FJG2: 7.7M Spectre: 7.1M FJG3: 6.1M SW TLJ: 5.9M FJG opened in 2013. And if you carefully look at this list you will release that the top 3 are from 2015, at the end of May Minions would have been in fourth place, another 2015 movie, shows how strong that was compared to the last three and a half year. #4 and #5 are both from 2017. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 (edited) Sadly only a few changes and Leber even dropped 10k, H&S is the only that increased by 5k. Hollywood: 200k TLK: 110k Good Boys: 95k Leber: 80k H&S: 65k TS4: 60k Crawl: 32.5k Stuber: 25k Common wisdom would point towards TS4 still finishing around 700-800k which would be roughly a 3x so not good. But after this weekend it would need to add 5.7 times the past weekend and I honestly don't really see that happening. Edited August 24, 2019 by Taruseth 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...