Taruseth Posted June 27, 2022 Share Posted June 27, 2022 Monday update: JWD: 195k (total 1305k) TGM: 155k (total 2135k) Elvis: 90k (including Previews) Black Phone: 50k (including Previews) Menschheit: 45k (total 122.5k) Lightyear: 40k (total 105k) 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted June 27, 2022 Author Share Posted June 27, 2022 (edited) everything a bit up from latest estimates, not bad Edited June 27, 2022 by IndustriousAngel Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
altglascontainer Posted June 27, 2022 Share Posted June 27, 2022 On 6/20/2022 at 1:21 PM, altglascontainer said: Thor Love & Thunder (July 6th) Ba-Wü Preview Seat Report T-16 Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold Total 0 64 905 16414 5,51% Total Seats Sold Last 5 Days: 404 Comp 2.351x of The Batman T-16 (1.19M€/115.500 Adm. OD) 0.696x of Top Gun 2 T-16 (0.59M€/57.750 Adm. OD) DS2 - missed Thor Love & Thunder (July 6th) Ba-Wü Preview Seat Report T-9 Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold Total 0 70 1820 17572 10,36% Total Seats Sold Last 7 Days: 915 Comp 1.234x of The Batman T-9 (0.63M€/60.750 Adm. OD) 0.336x of DS 2 T-9 (0.57M€/54.000 Adm. OD) TG2 - missed JWD - missed 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted June 27, 2022 Share Posted June 27, 2022 2 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said: everything a bit up from latest estimates, not bad Except Lightyear - that movie dropped 2.5k. Its performance is truly awful. 11 days to reach just 100k and then total 250k? That is nothing. Don't know if I will count Minion this evening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
altglascontainer Posted June 27, 2022 Share Posted June 27, 2022 1 hour ago, Taruseth said: Except Lightyear - that movie dropped 2.5k. Its performance is truly awful. 11 days to reach just 100k and then total 250k? That is nothing. Don't know if I will count Minion this evening. If there is anything to count. I just looked up the showtimes for minions in my tracking area, there were six showings in one location. cineplex, cinemaxx, traumpalast and cinestar don't have any showings advertised. It's a headscratcher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted June 27, 2022 Share Posted June 27, 2022 15 minutes ago, altglascontainer said: If there is anything to count. I just looked up the showtimes for minions in my tracking area, there were six showings in one location. cineplex, cinemaxx, traumpalast and cinestar don't have any showings advertised. It's a headscratcher. Damn, I thought they'd put them online today - but maybe tomorrow - thought we might have our first 1m opener - yeah that looks unlikely too happen now. Not even cinemaxx? For Lightyear they already had shows up on the weekend. That's really weird. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted June 27, 2022 Share Posted June 27, 2022 (edited) 10 hours ago, Taruseth said: Damn, I thought they'd put them online today - but maybe tomorrow - thought we might have our first 1m opener - yeah that looks unlikely too happen now. Not even cinemaxx? For Lightyear they already had shows up on the weekend. That's really weird. My estimates for the Minions 2 changed so much - when it was announced I thought it would do well, but below the original one (with a similar opening weekend), then in 2019 Frozen 2 did a 1.4m opening weekend, so I thought Minions 2 might do 1.5-2.0m depending on the weather, than a couple month ago I thought at least the opening weekend should be above the first and now... Cinemaxx still has no shows up. TFSS at the two CS: Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold Total 102 28 48968 0,06 It gets seats like it’s going to open to numbers like The Rise of Skywalker, Frozen II or Endgame – at one it gets the largest and one of the two second largest and at 2pm also the other and for the 5pm area it instead gets one of the two third largest – the CS Frankfurt instead (outside of Friday) gives it the largest, second largest, third largest and fourth largest for the whole day (including 10-11pm slot – only the fourth largest is free at that slot): At the CS Bremen Endgame had 12252 seats available this has 18248 available for the weekend – lol (Endgame did get some showings added throughout the weekend so probably ended closer to 16k seats). At both TLK had 58k (so 9k more – still can’t believe how many seats they opened up for this movie) for the weekend. And TROS had 53k (so 4k more). I assume Frozen II was somewhere around that too -> They expect this to perform absolutely insane. Adjusted comps: LY => 103k Ouch - even if this has way better walk ups, I'd bet on a sub 500k OWend and right now would probably see it around 300k. But we should still keep in mind, that Minions is probably the walk up heaviest franchise that exists and cinemas allocating it showings like they only do for million openers (and TLK) means there is no need to book a seat in advance. Also: This movie will fall and rise with the weather: Way sunnier and hotten than predicted (like 35 °C on Saturday and Sunday it it will open with 250k - less than 20 °C and some light rain and Friday, Saturday and Sunday each could easily be over 250k). It will most definitely replace Elvis as the movie with the biggest presales multi Let's see what the next two days bring. Edited June 27, 2022 by Taruseth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted June 28, 2022 Author Share Posted June 28, 2022 9 hours ago, Taruseth said: Ouch - even if this has way better walk ups, I'd bet on a sub 500k OWend and right now would probably see it around 300k. yep, presales at my cinema are not promising, either, but then, with family releases presales are always unreliable. At least weather should stay unstable until Friday and maybe not too good even on Sat/sun so there's a good chance for strong walk-in sales. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted June 28, 2022 Author Share Posted June 28, 2022 Germany's Top12 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Jurassic World 3 195.912 693 283 1.308.624 14.986.417 -32 3 2 Top Gun 2 154.540 647 239 2.136.028 21.995.561 -14 5 3 Elvis 80.752 586 138 91.871 973.734 - 1 4 The Black Phone 47.957 297 161 52.281 488.030 - 1 5 Die Geschichte der Menschheit … 45.159 449 101 121.805 1.096.826 -20 2 6 Lightyear 39.493 522 76 106.297 862.869 -28 2 7 Doctor Strange 2 14.048 226 62 2.166.582 22.960.598 -45 8 8 Paw Patrol: Jet to the Rescue 13.837 436 32 129.506 694.653 -5 4 9 Mia and Me 13.668 535 26 239.641 1.746.818 -11 5 10 Immenhof 9.474 511 19 209.579 1.552.078 -23 5 11 The Bad Boys 8.455 248 34 844.579 6.214.334 -4 15 12 Fantastic Beasts 3 8.036 221 36 2.913.010 29.360.916 -28 12 Not a good weekend but family releases had decent holds (with the exception of Lightyear, that is one unmitigated flop …) - Top Gun Maverick had a fine hold, it crossed 2mil and is steering towards a total of well over 2,5mil. If not for Thor, I'd say it would have a chance to reach 3mil! Next weekend: Minions 2 will be #1 but it's not guaranteed it can come anywhere near the success of ist predecessors. If we look at the franchise, there was a clear upwards trend: Despicable Me 1: 2,5mil total; DM2: 3,7mil; DM3: 4,7mil; Minions: 6,9mil!!! These are some mighty big footsteps to step into and presales look undewhelming (to stay polite), if it has a >500k OW I'd consider that pretty good with current presales! 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
altglascontainer Posted June 28, 2022 Share Posted June 28, 2022 On 6/27/2022 at 11:33 AM, altglascontainer said: Thor Love & Thunder (July 6th) Ba-Wü Preview Seat Report T-9 Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold Total 0 70 1820 17572 10,36% Total Seats Sold Last 7 Days: 915 Comp 1.234x of The Batman T-9 (0.63M€/60.750 Adm. OD) 0.336x of DS 2 T-9 (0.57M€/54.000 Adm. OD) TG2 - missed JWD - missed Thor Love & Thunder (July 6th) Ba-Wü Preview Seat Report T-8 Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold Total 0 178 2356 36087 6,53% Total Seats Sold Last Day: 536 Comp 1.504x of The Batman T-8 (0.76M€/74.000 Adm. OD) 1.024x of Top Gun T-8 (0.87M€/85.000 Adm. OD) 1.676x of JW: D T-8 (1.92M€/168.500 Adm. OD) DS2 - missed Huge Jump for Thor. The best presale day so far out in comparison to DS2, Top Gun, JW and Batman. Minion2 (June 30th) Ba-Wü OD Seat Report T-2 Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold Total 0 209 299 46880 0,64% Total Seats Sold Last Day: 299 Comp 1.801x of Lightyear T-2 (0.74M€/88.750 Adm. OW) Minions doesn't look really compelling. But it's the first day of presales, so lets see what tomorrow will bring. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Issac Newton Posted June 28, 2022 Share Posted June 28, 2022 Germany Box Office (Additional) ⚪ Belle - €15,945 / €448,224 ⚪ Spider-Man: No Way Home - €7,244 / €45,789,589 ⚪ Jujutsu Kaisen Movie 0 - €312 / €2,530,711 Austria Box Office ① Top Gun: Maverick - €236,339 / €4,087,593 ② Jurassic World: Dominion - €223,882 / €1,948,768 ③ Elvis - €150,066 🆕 Misc. ◉ Belle - €1,509 / €53,816 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted June 28, 2022 Share Posted June 28, 2022 On 6/27/2022 at 10:52 PM, Taruseth said: My estimates for the Minions 2 changed so much - when it was announced I thought it would do well, but below the original one (with a similar opening weekend), then in 2019 Frozen 2 did a 1.4m opening weekend, so I thought Minions 2 might do 1.5-2.0m depending on the weather, than a couple month ago I thought at least the opening weekend should be above the first and now... Cinemaxx still has no shows up. TFSS at the two CS: Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold Total 102 28 48968 0,06 It gets seats like it’s going to open to numbers like The Rise of Skywalker, Frozen II or Endgame – at one it gets the largest and one of the two second largest and at 2pm also the other and for the 5pm area it instead gets one of the two third largest – the CS Frankfurt instead (outside of Friday) gives it the largest, second largest, third largest and fourth largest for the whole day (including 10-11pm slot – only the fourth largest is free at that slot): At the CS Bremen Endgame had 12252 seats available this has 18248 available for the weekend – lol (Endgame did get some showings added throughout the weekend so probably ended closer to 16k seats). At both TLK had 58k (so 9k more – still can’t believe how many seats they opened up for this movie) for the weekend. And TROS had 53k (so 4k more). I assume Frozen II was somewhere around that too -> They expect this to perform absolutely insane. Adjusted comps: LY => 103k Ouch - even if this has way better walk ups, I'd bet on a sub 500k OWend and right now would probably see it around 300k. But we should still keep in mind, that Minions is probably the walk up heaviest franchise that exists and cinemas allocating it showings like they only do for million openers (and TLK) means there is no need to book a seat in advance. Also: This movie will fall and rise with the weather: Way sunnier and hotten than predicted (like 35 °C on Saturday and Sunday it it will open with 250k - less than 20 °C and some light rain and Friday, Saturday and Sunday each could easily be over 250k). It will most definitely replace Elvis as the movie with the biggest presales multi Let's see what the next two days bring. Minions 2: Counted on 28th June 2022 at 23:15 TFSS at all three cinemas: Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold Total 144 202 59476 0,34 +174 tickets / +621 % Comps: Lightyear => 270k Menschheit => 411k Elvis => 297k Honestly didn't think it could do something like this. Jump in the next 24 hours will obviously be way smaller, but those very limited comps look a lot better than they did yesterday and maybe Minions 2 and Germany will surprise us all and do what the first did. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted June 29, 2022 Author Share Posted June 29, 2022 (edited) 14 hours ago, Issac Newton said: Austria Box Office ① Top Gun: Maverick - €236,339 / €4,087,593 ② Jurassic World: Dominion - €223,882 / €1,948,768 ③ Elvis - €150,066 🆕 Austria has been doing a bit better than Germany the last weeks ... Maverick is already past 300k admissions here, the first "Golden Ticket" this year! Edited June 29, 2022 by IndustriousAngel 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
altglascontainer Posted June 29, 2022 Share Posted June 29, 2022 Thor Love & Thunder (July 6th) Ba-Wü Preview Seat Report T-7 Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold Total 0 178 2645 36087 7,33% Total Seats Sold Last Day: 289 Comp 0.414x of DS2 T-7 (0.71M€/66.750 Adm. OD) 1.545x of JW: D T-7 (1.77M€/155.500 Adm. OD) Batman - missed Top Gun - missed Minion2 (June 30th) Ba-Wü OD Seat Report T-2 Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold Total 0 211 690 47357 1,46% Total Seats Sold Last Day: 391 Comp 2.117x of Lightyear T-1 (0.97M€/117.000 Adm. OW) The comp for lightyear is complete ass, i think. But i don't have anything better. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted June 29, 2022 Share Posted June 29, 2022 38 minutes ago, altglascontainer said: The comp for lightyear is complete ass, i think. But i don't have anything better. How will JWD compare. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted June 29, 2022 Share Posted June 29, 2022 23 hours ago, Taruseth said: Minions 2: Counted on 28th June 2022 at 23:15 TFSS at all three cinemas: Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold Total 144 202 59476 0,34 +174 tickets / +621 % Comps: Lightyear => 270k Menschheit => 411k Elvis => 297k Honestly didn't think it could do something like this. Jump in the next 24 hours will obviously be way smaller, but those very limited comps look a lot better than they did yesterday and maybe Minions 2 and Germany will surprise us all and do what the first did. Minions 2: Counted on 29th June 2022 at 23:15 TFSS at all three cinemas: Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold Total 144 401 59476 0,67 +199 tickets / +99 % (Performance was quite different across the cinemas, the two CS increase by more than 120% while the CX increased by less than 50 % - it has like 1/3 of its tickets sold in one block (in a show) on Thursday. TS4 => 246k Lightyear => 212k Menschheit => 476k Elvis => 337k (Five Feet Apart => 500k) Yeah, after yesterday I expected more like +300 - +400 tickets today so +150-+200 %. Its probably one if not the most walk up heavy franchise, but this isn't looking too good: So for now I'd say 450k OWend and a total of around 3m But if it can keep its walk ups strong because its a good movie it can open to 650k and finish with 5.0m 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted June 29, 2022 Share Posted June 29, 2022 12 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said: How will JWD compare. If my numbers are anything to go by - absolutely s*** - JWD is a lot more presales heavy than animation movies (aside from Frozen probably). JWD for my comp would suggest Minions to open to 119k. Actually JWD was more presales heavy than TLK in my sample. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Borobudur Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 5 hours ago, Taruseth said: Minions 2: Counted on 29th June 2022 at 23:15 TFSS at all three cinemas: Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold Total 144 401 59476 0,67 +199 tickets / +99 % (Performance was quite different across the cinemas, the two CS increase by more than 120% while the CX increased by less than 50 % - it has like 1/3 of its tickets sold in one block (in a show) on Thursday. TS4 => 246k Lightyear => 212k Menschheit => 476k Elvis => 337k (Five Feet Apart => 500k) Yeah, after yesterday I expected more like +300 - +400 tickets today so +150-+200 %. Its probably one if not the most walk up heavy franchise, but this isn't looking too good: So for now I'd say 450k OWend and a total of around 3m But if it can keep its walk ups strong because its a good movie it can open to 650k and finish with 5.0m Presale or walk-ups, rain or Sun will distort everything! More rain = more tickets sales, all we need a bit of rain over weekend and everything is safe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 Please use OD sales for OD predictions only. OW can be a lot different despite what the OD is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
altglascontainer Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 On 6/29/2022 at 11:21 AM, charlie Jatinder said: How will JWD compare. 0.141x of JW D T-1 (0.16M€/14.250 Adm. OD) Minion 2 (June 30th) Ba-Wü OD Seat Report T-0 Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold Total 0 211 1565 47357 3,30% Total Seats Sold Last Day: 875 Comp 0.347x of Batman T-0 (0.18M€/17.000 Adm. OD) 0.120x of DS 2 T-0 (0.21M€/19.250 Adm. OD) 0.217x of Top Gun T-0 (0.23M€/22.500 Adm. OW) JW D missed 2.397x of Lightyear T-0 (1.10M€/132.250 Adm. OW) Good day in comp to lightyear, but I dont know, these comps seem really low for a kid movie. Thor Love & Thunder (July 6th) Ba-Wü Preview Seat Report T-6 Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold Total 0 178 3204 36087 8,88% Total Seats Sold Last Day: 559 Comp 1.678x of The Batman T-6 (0.86M€/82.500 Adm. OD) 0.457x of DS2 T-6 (0.78M€/73.500 Adm. OD) 1.143x of Top Gun T-6 (0.97M€/95.000 Adm. OD) 1.674x of JW: D T-6 (1.92M€/168.500 Adm. OD) Another huge day for Thor, seems like 80 k is the floor for OD. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...