BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)

[el sid]

It curious myself which movie will win this weekend. Peter Rabbit is obviously very popular and fits much better to Easter and spring thematically. But OTOH the brandmark „Jim Knopf“ is for sure still well known (but I`m no expert because I only know the name and roughly the story) and Jim Knopf had a lot of advertising. And both movies have not stellar but decent reviews.

The Thursday estimates from insidekino.de/forum (pretty good overall due to the school holidays and tomorrow (Good Friday) is a legal holiday in every state in Germany):

The new releases:

Jim Knopf & Lukas, der Lokomotivführer: 14.5k evening only! (released in 632 theaters, a lot of ok reviews but also many good ones) – looks quite good in my view
Verpiss Dich, Schneewittchen!: 11k (a German comedy, the translation of the filmtitle would ca. be: Piss off Snow White! whatever that shall mean, 350, so far one ok and three terrible reviews)
Unsane: 12k (196, mixed reviews between 3 and 8/10 but on average pretty good) - nice
The Death of Stalin: 3k (100, mostly good and very good reviews)

The holdovers (nice jumps):

Red Sparrow: 23k (actuals last Thursday 10k) - very good
Pacific Rim: Uprising: 21.5k (19k)
Tomb Raider: 19k (13k)
Die Sch`tis in Paris/La Ch`tite famille: 12k (6k)
BP: 10.5k (7.5k)
Midnight Sun: 10k (5.5k)
The Post: 9.5k
Peter Rabbit: 2.7k evening only so not meaningful at all (last Thursday 30k but the whole day)

Edited March 29, 2018 by el sid

[el sid]

The first trend from insidekino.de looks like that:

#1 Peter Rabbit: 300k
#2 Jim Knopf: 250k
#3 PR: U: 100k
#4 Tomb Raider: 80k
#5 Red Sparrow or Fünf Freunde with each 70k admissions

And the Thursday actuals from Blickpunkt:Film:
 

The new releases:

Jim Knopf & Lukas, der Lokomotivführer: 55k
Verpiss Dich, Schneewittchen!: 13k → 55 OW predicted in the first trend of insidekino.de which is under the expectations
Unsane: 11k → 55 OW predicted in the first trend, a bit over the expectations
The Death of Stalin: 3.5k → 20 OW predicted in the first trend

The holdovers:

Peter Rabbit: 75k (actuals last Thursday 30k)
Pacific Rim: Uprising: 25k (19k)
Red Sparrow: 17.5k (10k)
Tomb Raider: 20k (13k)

[IndustriousAngel]

2nd trend a bit better for the leaders

[Aristis]

There seem to be some great holds - if the next Trend won't be worse, weather is great here. Not as bad as predicted...

 

Peter Rabbit 325k (+22%/-4% Previews included) About 900k

Jim Knopf 300k At least it's better for JK too, but I hoped it could do better. Maybe the 50k rise is a sign for good WOM... I hope so. I think Germany should do more such bigger films.

PR2 105k (-17%/-21%) Can this pass PR1 (504k)?

TR 92,5k (-7%)

RS 92,5k (+9%) Will be at 800k+ after the WE (maybe 830k) and should pass 1M in the end. It has great WOM here. Is this JLaw Starpower or what?

BP 65k (+7%) 1,62M+

Unsane 62,5k

The Post 60k (-18%) Should be at 940k and will pass 1M too.

 

Edited March 31, 2018 by Aristis

[IndustriousAngel]

while those are really great holds, let's not forget that we're coming from a really shitty weekend ...

[Aristis]

Family movies are even a bit up this time!

 

Peter Rabbit 335k (+26%/ -1% Previews included)

Jim Knopf 310k

PR2 105k (-17%/-21%)

TR 90k (-10%)

RS 90k (+6%)

The Post 65k (-11%)

BP 62,5k (+2%) 1,62M+

Unsane 62,5k

 

[Aristis]

Numbers got even better.

 

PR 355k (+33%/+4%) 940k
Jim Knopf 315k/345k
PR2 107,5k (-15%/-19%) 295k
TR 97,5k (-3%) 475k
RS 92,5k (+9%) 835k
The Post 70k (-4%) 960k
BP 65k (+7%) 1,64M

 

FSOG3 20k (-33%) 2,98M FSOG3 will pass 3M as the first movie of 2017.
 

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Peter Rabbit	360.105	735	490	943.010	6.369.662	+35	1
2	Jim Knopf & Lukas, der Lokomotivführer	320.688	632	507	350.046	2.666.179	-	1
3	Pacific Rim 2	109.178	498	219	299.656	3.328.090	-14	2
4	Tomb Raider	98.546	573	172	477.078	4.799.428	-2	3
5	Red Sparrow	93.087	453	205	835.524	7.914.638	+9	5
6	The Post	70.963	496	143	960.489	8.232.193	-3	6
7	Black Panther	65.268	333	196	1.637.076	17.670.367	+7	7
8	Verpiss Dich, Schneewittchen	61.403	352	174	61.403	532.707	-	1
9	La Ch'tite famille	60.192	397	152	152.987	1.273.455	+10	2
10	Fünf Freunde und das Tal der Dinosaurier	55.310	639	87	328.851	2.127.653	-7	3
11	Unsane	53.520	196	273	61.798	531.620	-	1
12	Unsere Erde 2	43.803	346	127	193.642	1.597.421	+15	3
13	Midnight Sun	40.144	337	119	158.991	1.231.235	-19	2
14	Game Night	22.456	200	112	314.863	2.643.171	+9	5
15	Fifty Shades of Grey 3	20.511	272	75	2.979.589	27.169.565	-32	8
16	Die kleine Hexe	19.579	521	38	1.442.401	9.393.633	-12	9
17	Maria Magdalena	19.350	302	64	92.626	765.295	+29	2
18	The Death of Stalin	19.242	100	192	24.981	193.959	-	1
19	MET: Cosi Fan Tutte	18.872	198	95	18.872	551.664	-	1
20	The Shape of Water	17.982	297	61	447.395	3.761.732	-18	7

 

Family film weekend - Peter Rabbit had a mighty increase and led the field, while domestic book adaption Jim Knopf had the best PTA - and, according to its run during the weekend, very good WOM. Domestic comedy Verpiss dich, Schneewittchen was a bit disappointing (but nobody was expecting big numbers anyway).

Next weekend: Two SciFi-releases based on books which are both less known here than in their home market - A Wrinkle in Time and Ready Player One. The latter one has at least Spielberg as a draw (look at The Post!) and some good reviews, it has a good chance at winning the weekend not only money-wise but also in admissions - A Wrinkle otoh will play in a lower league, I'd consider making the Top5 a success for this release. Among holdovers, family films will see a steep decline after the holiday weekend, but the way Jim Knopf was building up WOM maybe it can keep the drop in the 30% range.

[el sid]

The Thursday estimates from insidekino.de/forum (still school holidays in 82% of the country but the weekend is predicted to be very sunny and warm for April which as we have often seen will hurt the films a lot, especially the family films. At least today the weather was very mixed):

The new releases:

Ready Player One: 38k (released in 576 theaters, mixed reviews but overall pretty good) – would be an ok number but the predicted sunshine-weather will minimize the legs
Gringo: 2k (206, mixed reviews between 4 and 7/10, overall a bit better than in the USA)
Ghostland: 2.5k (163, pretty good reviews)
Film Stars Don`t Die in Liverpool: ?k (103, quite good reviews)
A Wrinkle in Time: ?k (87 only (!), mostly modest reviews between 2.5 to 6/10)

The holdovers:

Jim Knopf & Lukas, der Lokomotivführer: 14.5k evening only (actuals last Thursday were 55k for the whole day and 14.5k for the evening only, so it stayed flat this week)
Die Sch`tis in Paris/La Ch`tite famille: 9.5k (12k estimate only) – quite good
Tomb Raider: 8.5k (20k)
Red Sparrow: 8k (17.5k)
Pacific Rim: Uprising: 8k (25k)
The Post: 7k (?)
BP: 5k (10.5k estimate only)
Verpiss Dich, Schneewittchen!: 4k (13k)
Unsane: 3k (11k)

[IndustriousAngel]

Didn't know that Wrinkle was on so few screens - seems like an alibi start to me now, just to fulfill contractual obligations ... very good for Jim Knopf. Ready Player One, while Spielberg and nostalgic, is probably depending on its younger audience so Thu doesn't tell us that much.

[George Parr]

First trend is up, though the weather might make it a bit more difficult to judge this time around:

 

#1 Ready Player One 200k

#2 Jim Knopf 200k

#3 Peter Rabbit 170k

 

beyond that possibly no movie above 50k

[el sid]

And the first trend for the rest of the new releases (even if it isn`t that worthwhile):

Gringo 32.5k
Ghostland 17.5k
Film Stars Don`t Die in Liverpool 6k

Here you can see how much Mark_G factors in the weather because the Thursday actuals weren`t bad for several films like Jim Knopf or RPO:
The Thursday actuals (source as always Blickpunkt:Film):

The new releases:

Ready Player One: 45k - actually not a bad start
Transit: 5k
Ghostland: 3k
A Wrinkle in Time: 3k
Gringo: 2.6k

The holdovers:

Jim Knopf & Lukas, der Lokomotivführer: 75k (actuals last Thursday were 55k for the whole day – it increased yesterday)
Peter Rabbit: 65k (actuals whole last Thursday were 75k – you see that`s actually a good hold)
Fünf Freunde: 17k
Pacific Rim: Uprising: 10k (25k)

Edited April 6, 2018 by el sid

[IndustriousAngel]

wow, Rabbit's drop would be >50% ... talk about an Easter release! Jim Knopf's drop is nearer 40% than the 30% I was hoping for - still ok for the after-holiday depression; another fine domestic family movie!

 

The Ready Player One number doesn't feel strong but looking at the horrible drops, it's actually ok. Forecast for next weekend doesn't look that sunny so we can hope for good holds ...

[Aristis]

2nd Trend:

 

Still 200k for RPO... This is probably the worst weekend of the year to open a movie, so that's still OK.

Jim Knopf 185k (-42%)

Peter Rabbit 140k (-61%)

 

Some others: PR2 37,5k (-66%) RS 35k (-62%) TR 30k (-70%) BP 27,5k (-58%) The Post 27,5k (-61%)

 

Those are some really ugly holds and I understand that nobody posted those numbers yet...

Jim Knopf and BP holds look good compared to the others...

[IndustriousAngel]

yep, that's an ugly ugly weekend ... here in Austria, we have a very warm weekend, the first for barbecueing or biking; beergardens are open - no one wants to stay indoors

[IndustriousAngel]

... and numbers continue to drop ... only RPO stable, which seems a good sign

[el sid]

23 hours ago, Aristis said:

Those are some really ugly holds and I understand that nobody posted those numbers yet...

Exactly, nobody wanted to be the messenger . And with that perfect Sunday weather I doubt that the Monday update will bring better news...

[George Parr]

Monday numbers:

 

#1 Jim Knopf 190k

#2 Ready Player One 180k (202.5k with previews, and no.1 in terms of money)

#3 Peter Rabbit 140k

#4 Pacific Rim 2 37.5k

#5 Fünf Freunde 37.5k

#6 Red Sparrow 32.5k

#7 Tomb Raider 30k

 

Peter Rabbit and The Post have passed the 1m admission mark

[IndustriousAngel]

6 hours ago, George Parr said:

Peter Rabbit and The Post have passed the 1m admission mark

In a year nearly devoid of good news, The Post is a very welcome surprise!

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Jim Knopf & Lukas …	189.319	673	281	762.116	5.613.604	-41	2
2	Ready Player One	180.926	576	314	211.754	2.333.579	-	1
3	Peter Rabbit	139.303	755	185	1.282.304	8.590.470	-61	3
4	Pacific Rim 2	37.960	508	75	379.341	4.146.284	-65	3
5	Fünf Freunde und das Tal der Dinosaurier	37.715	582	65	411.776	2.654.423	-32	4
6	Red Sparrow	32.175	407	79	893.862	8.470.684	-65	6
7	The Post	29.401	460	64	1.023.090	8.762.531	-59	7
8	Tomb Raider	29.304	452	65	545.425	5.450.516	-70	4
9	Black Panther	28.302	279	101	1.695.076	18.255.116	-57	8
10	La Ch'tite famille	25.747	437	59	204.753	1.690.377	-57	3
11	Midnight Sun	25.218	358	70	215.907	1.667.273	-37	3
12	Unsane	21.280	222	96	100.469	863.819	-60	2
13	Transit	20.042	81	247	21.789	172.004	-	1
14	Verpiss Dich, Schneewittchen	16.229	362	45	101.446	848.114	-74	2
15	Unsere Erde 2	14.161	385	37	231.046	1.887.665	-68	4
16	Ghostland	14.131	163	87	19.429	155.181	-	1
17	Die kleine Hexe	11.319	386	29	1.472.137	9.565.322	-42	10
18	Gringo	10.677	200	53	33.107	212.289	-	1
19	A Wrinkle in Time	9.645	85	113	9.645	75.905	-	1
20	The Death of Stalin	8.593	100	86	42.340	333.099	-55	2

Depressing weekend, not a single good result even among arthouse releases …

 

Next weekend: Not much of a silver lining there … A Quiet Place and Blockers maybe the most interesting releases for international audiences while a few smaller domestic productions are opening, too - among them Romy Schneider biopic 3 Tage in Quiberon, frankly the only title next weekend that looks at least half interesting. Admission-wise, Blockers might win the weekend crown with very little competition in the comedy market.