BO Germany/Austria: Inside Out 2 #1 with best 2024 OW

[Fullbuster]

11 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

final estimate has Ice Age 5 at 525k only ... that's baaad. otoh, Me Before You stays flat from last week - that's goood.

 

What a drop for IA5 o_o And with the Euro that's worth clearly less in 2012 the fall over IA4 in USD will be shocking!

[IndustriousAngel]

yep, might be a 60% drop if not harder ... well let's see if it can develop any legs

[Aristis]

Now it seems that it had 440k 

5,6M won't happen for OW...

 

MbY 250k  without previews that means a 3% increase! (cume 780k, not bad)

CI 95k -23%

C2 70k -29%

AiW 25k -36%

Edited July 4, 2016 by Aristis

[Aristis]

Well, as for Ice Age I would say 2M are still possible. 3M would need to have a multipler of 7 already, so... Could be down more than 70% in admissions in the end! (If it reaches 2M) But most of the Ice Age movies had great multiplers - still, all is possible.

But it will certainly end as the least successfull IA movie - and that by far

[Fullbuster]

That's horrible for IA5...I knew that some people could have lost interest but I expected a much smaller fall....$1B WW is dead I guess.

[Aristis]

24 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

That's horrible for IA5...I knew that some people could have lost interest but I expected a much smaller fall....$1B WW is dead I guess.

I didn't even think of $1B for this. There is too much against it. It would need to make $850M to $900M OS (probably rather the latter one) to get to $1B.

With falling exchange rates that is impossible.

[el sid]

Yes, that's sad for IA5. But reservations were so low (even for a(n also) family film) that I'm not really sursprised.

Well, football will dominate this week too but then it has time till July the 28th when PETS starts here. I don't think that BFG will be that much of a competition.

By the way, insidekino predicts PETS to have 5M admissions and be #1 of the month. Ok, they also predicted 4.7M moviegoers for IA5, so take it with a grain of salt. But mostly these predictions are not bad and I think this time they could be right. PETS is something new and fresh and looks – I have to admit that – really pretty sweet.

 

And finally some smaller numbers of the past weekend/week:

 

#5 Alice2: 25k/750k
#6 WC: 22.5k (-41.5%)/1.180k

#7 AB: Angry Birds: 22.5k/1.375k

[Aristis]

Yeah, the following will be the last weekend with football having influence on BO. But that'll be much! On Thursday and - I suspect - on Sunday

 

The drops (or increases ) the week after will be interesting.

[Giesi]

2 hours ago, el sid said:

PETS is something new and fresh 

It didn't look new and fresh to me and a lot of other people when I got the trailer in theatre a few month back! I don't even think it can reach 3mil admissions!

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Ice Age 5	443.090	812	546	443.090	3.738.260	-	1
2	Me Before You	249.346	613	407	781.099	6.269.845	+3	2
3	Central Intelligence	94.507	530	178	537.718	4.347.030	-23	3
4	Conjuring 2	73.097	419	174	456.360	4.103.234	-26	3
5	Alice 2	26.196	446	59	750.287	7.077.347	-34	6
6	Warcraft	23.372	327	71	1.181.955	13.408.949	-39	6
7	Angry Birds	21.995	537	41	1.377.063	10.282.496	-46	8
8	Bastille Day	14.116	331	43	81.535	579.798	-50	2
9	Vor der Morgenröte	9.388	144	65	136.230	136.230	-5	5
10	Money Monster	9.247	221	42	415.345	3.432.280	-43	6
11	X-Men - Apocalypse	7.419	156	48	755.617	8.089.324	-41	7
12	Lou Andreas-Salomé	7.130	42	170	8.223	60.227	-	1
13	Zootopia	6.460	230	28	3.732.980	30.299.569	-47	18
14	The Nice Guys	5.363	173	31	271.231	2.114.126	-55	5
15	Atrapa la bandera	5.285	323	16	95.854	666.154	-66	4
16	Nous trois ou rien	4.678	39	120	8.111	56.710	-	1
17	Rico, Oskar und der Diebstahlstein	4.510	257	18	330.867	1.994.037	-44	10
18	High-Rise	4.467	60	74	20.764	127.303	-	1
19	The Jungle Book	4.372	209	21	1.801.143	17.221.505	-54	12
20	Neighbors 2	3.853	119	32	811.796	6.565.296	-43	9

 

So, this should have been the weekend to break the Euro2016 depression at the BO, instead it's another bummer … the only bright spot on the chart is Me Before You which managed to increase from last week's good start. Ice Age 5 started way below expectations; the only thing it succeeded in was hurting other family stuff as witnessed by the sharp drops even for longrunners like Zootopia.

 

Next weekend: With the Euro2016 finals, of course nobody dares open anything big … the most interesting release is Smaragdgrün, the third entry in the YA franchise - since nr.2 expanded a lot from nr.1, maybe there's a further success possible, 200k admissions for the weekend would be good. As poor as IA5 opened, at least it should stay nr.1 …

[Aristis]

Well, half of the year is over and so, maybe, it's time to have a look on the yearly chart.

 

No.	Admissions	€	Widest Release	Movie
1	3.732.980	30.299.569	729	Zootopia
2	2.796.569	26.453.551	748	The Revenant
3	2.692.431	22.831.821	668	Deadpool
4	1.970.205	12.352.741	775	Bibi & Tina 3 (German)
5	1.801.143	17.221.505	696	The Jungle Book
6	1.715.775	19.095.762	651	Civil War
7	1.657.647	13.561.928	713	Der geilste Tag (German)
8	1.526.849	16.803.833	693	Batman V Superman
9	1.377.063	10.282.496	738	Angry Birds
10	1.331.885	10.902.478	495	Dirty Grandpa

 

Now, with Ice Age doing worse than predicted, Zootopia will hold its 1st position a bit longer. Maybe Pets has a shot. Suicide Squad could surprise in August but 3.8M would be very hard. The next is Finding Dory (Septembre 29th) which should be sure to make more that Zoo, if not that would be really disappointing... (The other two Million Movies - missing in this list - are The Hateful 8 and Warcraft. Ice Age should join that list soon and should also be the fourth movie to make it to 2M admissions.

Now to the Top Opening Weekends:

 

No.	Admissions	Cinemas	Average	Movie
1	713.887	523	1.365	Deadpool
2	690.464	636	1.086	Zoomania
3	554.890	657	845	BvS
4	545.288	615	887	CW
5	460.078	659	698	TJB
6	443.090	812	546	Ice Age 5
7	440.830	603	731	Warcraft
8	380.349	402	946	The Revenant
9	374.187	660	567	Bibi & Tina 3
10	342.733	650	527	Der geilste Tag

 

As you can see Theatres had hopes in Ice Age, it had 812 cinemas in its OW, the widest release yet.

And at last, after last years Universal Domination, a short look on the Studios:

 

No.	Admissions	Movies	%	Studio
1	9.185.665	9	21,4%	20th Century Fox
2	8.517.528	5	19,8%	Walt Disney
3	6.288.834	8	14,6%	Warner Bros.
4	5.225.932	12	12,2%	Universal
5	2.583.993	5	6,0%	Sony
	43.001.891	69	100,0%	Cume

 

Fox is slightly in Front but with Dory and SW coming Disney could overtake it. Independence Day could maybe expand the gap next week though.

According to that data the yearly total (up to 3rd July) is 43M. I don't know if all movies are included but it won'T be much more. If that's true that's a big drop though (2015: 66.8M, 2014: 56.2M).

 

So that's it. I hope there is some interest There should be accurate Numbers on the first half of the year soon (Don't know when they are released) All numbers from InsideKino.

[Fullbuster]

So glad to see Zootopia on top, really deserved!

[IndustriousAngel]

In Austria, numbers are similar to Germany ... 2016 is down from 2015; after a good 1st quarter, admissions took a dive. May was already one of the poorest in recent history (2008 was worse) and June definitely was the worst June in history (admission-wise, of course). 2nd quarter as a whole had just a bit over 2mil admissions in Austria; only 2008 was worse with about 1,9mil admissions.

 

Well, the Euro2016 will be over this weekend and there's a lot of blockbustery stuff on the horizon (ID2, Dory, Pets, BFG, ST3, Ghostbusters ...) plus IA5 will make most of its admissions in quarter 3 so I still have some hopes for 2016. (The 1st quarter WAS good)

[Aristis]

The Friday trend doesn't tell much. Nearly 30M saw the game yesterday - but it'll end at last this weekend.

 

Two films seem to be certain to reach more than 100k (Ice Age and Smaragdgrün) and Me before You could do it. In fact this weekend could become the worst in years...

[IndustriousAngel]

Now we DO have estimates on insidekino, it's looking like:

#1: IA5 - 225k (-50%, ooooouch, that's horrible)

#2: MeBeforeYou - 150k (-40% but last weekend saw an increase)

#3: Smaragdgrün - 130k (behind expectations)

 

...

[Giesi]

Well, it's safe to call IA5's performance in Germany disastrous now, can it even reach 2mio admissions with Pets on the horizon later this month?

[el sid]

20 minutes ago, Giesi said:

Well, it's safe to call IA5's performance in Germany disastrous now, can it even reach 2mio admissions with Pets on the horizon later this month?

With this weekend result, I fear/think not. Ok, football and the weather hurted it but that's not enough as an explanation.
It should have ca. 800k total admissions after this weekend and even if it stays flat next weekend, the time till PETS (aka SLOP to annoy Mojoguy ) starts is too short to reach 2M. And I'm not sure anymore if it would have the potential to reach 2M even without the competition of PETS.

Edited July 9, 2016 by el sid

[Fullbuster]

So IA4 grossed $64m and IA5 won't even reach $20m? Clearly an EPIC FAIL!

[Aristis]

7.299.318

8.747.671     +20%

8.709.881      -

6.699.599      -23%

1.800.000?    -73%

 

Edited July 10, 2016 by Aristis

[HH84]

14 hours ago, Aristis said:

7.299.318

8.747.671     +20%

8.709.881      -

1.800.000?    -80%

 

You forgot IA4 with 6.699.599. Still a huge decrease.