mexico Mexico Box Office | Inside Out 2 close to $72M; will Day One create much noise?

[Carlangonz]

I won't have numbers until Wednesday but Avatar is still looking promising. As people have mentioned from reports in US/CAN, UK and Brazil, here it's also looking exceptionally well from 3D and premium shows (incl VIP) but quite slow on 2D shows.

 

Probably Thu and Fri will see the same proportion as Wed night previews but by Saturday and Sunday we might be seeing 3D shows taking a bigger share. People prefer to wait to see it in 3D rather than see it in 2D on opening night so it should be backloaded as well.

 

I stand with mid $20M previews and low to mid $200M for full opening weekend. 

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, Carlangonz said:

I stand with mid $20M previews and low to mid $200M for full opening weekend.

$200M would be very bad. That's less than 2.5M admits.

[Carlangonz]

7 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

$200M would be very bad. That's less than 2.5M admits.

I'm leaning towards higher range. December may have "disappointing" openings but except for Star Wars it's always about legs. Aquaman had a meh opening compared to other titles and rest of OS but then was a legs monster.

 

Mid-200s/3M admits for this one would lock above Multiverse of Madness and pending on wom; $1B as well.

[Carlangonz]

Cinépolis Perisur 

 

The Way of Water (T-0 Days): 2,131/3,051 (69.85%)

 

Comps:

Wakanda Forever (T-0 Days): 1,901/2,820 (67.41%)

Multiverse of Madness (T-0 Days): 2,867/3,136 (91.42%)

Love & Thunder (T-0 Days): 2,431/3,970 (61.23%)

 

Cinépolis Forum Buenavista

 

The Way of Water (T-0 Days): 1,346/1,900 (70.84%)

 

Comps: 

Wakanda Forever (T-0 Days): 1,594/1,942 (82.08%)

Multiverse of Madness (T-0 Days): 2,754/2,895 (95.13%)

Love & Thunder (T-0 Days) : 2,177/3,016 (72.18%)

 

Quite interesting trajectory for both venues. Advantage for Perisur has been more flexibility to work around a higher percentage of 3D shows incl IMAX and VIP (Buenavista doesn't have VIP rooms). I'd say Buenavista is a perfect mirror for 2nd and 3rd tier markets and Perisur for 1st tier markets so mid to high 20s for previews. Able to top both Wakanda Forever and Love and Thunder in previews.

[charlie Jatinder]

Argentina previews are pretty good at 35K. So I wonder if MEX can be around 400K for $32-35M.

[Carlangonz]

Cinépolis Perisur

 

The Way of Water (T-0 Days) - 4,153/10,544 (39.39%)

 

Comps:

Love and Thunder (T-0 Days) - 3,274/16,790 (19.5%)

Multiverse of Madness (T-0 Days) - 5,316/9,973 (53.3%)

The Batman (T-1 Day) - 2,127/6,557 (32.44%)

No Way Home (T-1 Day) - 8,463/9,156 (92.43%)

 

Cinépolis Buenavista 

 

The Way of Water (T-0 Days) - 2,604/8,408 (30.97%)

 

Comps:

Love and Thunder (T-0 Days) - 3,238/10,082 (32.12%)

Multiverse of Madness (T-0 Days) - 6,308/9,609 (65.65%)

The Batman (T-1 Day) - 2,298/6,616 (34.73%)

 

Comps combine both previews and Thursday sales; where Avatar outstands everything else is how strong sales are for both days which is on line with Wakanda Forever and points towards increases on day-to-day over the weekend. So $12M-$15M for 4-Day + Previews depending on how reception moves across the weekend. 

 

World Cup impact will be minimal as it starts at 08:30 AM and 06:30 AM on border cities at Northwest. Early shows will suffer but by afternoon should be ok.

 

 

 

 

[Carlangonz]

So $1.5M previews as per Deadline. Via BO pro Real 3D reports 30% of shows in the market are on the format.

 

So yeah on the higher end of $12M-$15M expectation. Third best bow of the year below Multiverse of Madness and Dominion and saving grace for $1B+ total.

 

 

[Carlangonz]

Not even late night shows on a Thursday night are stopping walk-ins it like they did in Korea. So can't say anything but LET'S GO!

Edited December 16, 2022 by Carlangonz

[XXR & Friends]

2 minutes ago, Carlangonz said:

Not even late night shows on a Thursday night are stopping walk-ins it like they did in Korea. So can't say anything but LET'S GO!

 

Help us MexicObi-Wan Kenobi, you're our only hope!

 

[charlie Jatinder]

So ~$30M previews. I imagine would have hit $325M normally but now may be $265M due to World Cup final.

[Carlangonz]

$300M+ OW. Let's wait and see how close Sunday can take it to Dominion. 

 

Jimbo will really deliver the first non-Marvel/Pixar $1B flick.

[Purple Minion]

$3.7M total up to Thursday for A2, including $1.5M previews.

 

$15M OW can be reached unless there is an impact from the WC - matches are too early but you never know. ER is also stable.

[charlie Jatinder]

30

42

~60

~110

~65 (instead of 110)

 

~305 (~3.8M admits)

 

15M+ admits full run, hopefully.

Edited December 17, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[Danhjpn]

51 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

30

42

~60

~110

~65 (instead of 110)

 

~305 (~3.8M admits)

 

15M+ admits full run, hopefully.

How does 15M+ admits here translate into USD?

[XXR & Friends]

31 minutes ago, Danhjpn said:

How does 15M+ admits here translate into USD?

$50-55M

[Danhjpn]

50 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

$50-55M

Sad

[Carlangonz]

10 hours ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

$50-55M

Closer to $60M thanks to surcharges for 3D. I've been thinking exactly the same; 4th all time in lc and second title above 15M admits in pandemic times.

 

Saw it last night on a 3D show at a theatre with laser projection and my audience received it pretty well. 

[Purple Minion]

$5.9M total for A2. I was expecting at least $2.5M on Friday... is it slowing down, or will it explode Sat/Sun?

[charlie Jatinder]

Eh FRI in Mexico and Brazil 

[Purple Minion]

Korea exploded Fri to Sat so I have a hunch it'll be similar here. Let's say 50% increase, Sun flat, that gives $12.5M OW.