Carlangonz Posted July 20 Share Posted July 20 On 7/18/2024 at 7:25 PM, Carlangonz said: DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE - WEDNESDAY NIGHT PREVIEWS (T-7 DAYS) Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth Deadpool & Wolverine 12604 20004 63.01% +4.18% Comps at T-0 Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Comp in % Comp in lc Fast X 10139 16907 59.97% 124.31% $45.99M The Flash 5353 12348 43.35% 226% $36.16M Guardians 3 6643 12606 52.7% 182.12% $43.16M DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE - WEDNESDAY NIGHT PREVIEWS (T-5 DAYS) Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth Deadpool & Wolverine 13193 20649 63.89% +04.67% Comps at T-0 Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Comp in % Comp in lc Fast X 10139 16907 59.97% 130.12% $48.14M The Flash 5353 12348 43.35% 226% $36.16M Guardians 3 6643 12606 52.7% 182.12% $43.16M Nothing crazy yet but final push should starting happening this weekend. I'll take data for Thursday on T-3 as well to test the waters on how it's looking the rest of the weekend. As for allocation it seems like will be around 4,500 screens; second widest release this year along with Despicable Me 4 and below Inside Out 2. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purple Minion Posted July 21 Author Share Posted July 21 IO2 reached $98M. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grand Cine Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 6 minutes ago, Purple Minion said: IO2 reached $98M. If D&W don't destroy the movie i think he has a good chance to surpass 100M at the end of the month 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purple Minion Posted July 21 Author Share Posted July 21 (edited) And $32.1M for DM4, about 570M lc, passing Kongzilla as #3 movie of the year. Edited July 21 by Purple Minion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grand Cine Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 5 minutes ago, Purple Minion said: And $32.1M for DM4, about 570M lc. Good hold for DM4 this weekend around 33% drop , probably around 700M lc finish 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 1 hour ago, Purple Minion said: IO2 reached $98M. On line with expectations, close to $35M weekend. Seems like is finally settling down; will finish somewhere between $1.83B-$1.84B. $100M USD/25M admits will take a time. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purple Minion Posted July 21 Author Share Posted July 21 Twisters had a great 22% drop, as per Deadline. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purple Minion Posted July 22 Author Share Posted July 22 Latest totals in lc: IO2 - 1,792.5M, DM4 - 572.1M, Twisters - 131.3M. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 On 7/21/2024 at 9:30 AM, Purple Minion said: IO2 reached $98M. On 7/21/2024 at 10:38 AM, Carlangonz said: On line with expectations, close to $35M weekend. Is coming to $1.793B. Needs $37M from a $35M weekend to catch $100M USD with another major opener this weekend. Mmmh, I know Disney will manage to hold screens for it to lure families and counterprogram Pool but don't know how much they can handle. Until we don't have next weekend results; $100M still looking so close yet so far. Admissions is now 3rd biggest seller ever above Coco and just behind Endgame and Toy Story 4. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purple Minion Posted July 22 Author Share Posted July 22 Disney's actual USD total for IO2: $98,057,864. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted July 23 Share Posted July 23 JULY 18-21 WEEKEND. 1. Despicable Me 4 - $85.5M/$572.1M (-29.57%) 2. Twisters - $46.7M/$131.3M (-18.78%) 3. Inside Out 2 - $35.1M/$1792.5M (-30.22%) 4. A Quiet Place: Day One - $17.1M/$230.9M (-25.97%) 5. The Forbidden Play - $12M 6. Fly Me to the Moon - $7.2M/$21.5M (-25.77%) 7. Entra en mi Vida - $5.4M 8. Bad Boys: Ride or Die - $2.5M/$282.6M (-30.56%) 9. Run Rabbit Run - $1.6M 10. Jeanne du Barry - $0.97M/$5.4M (-11.82%) Great weekend for holdovers and a terrible one for newcomers ahead of another monster of a weekend. Despicable Me 4 is going to take a hard hit this weekend but won't collapse and seems like will go on through the rest of the holidays until late August looking to top high 600s. Twisters had a tremendous hold as well; if not for Deadpool would be looking to go over $250M. Comparing it a bit to Maverick after Jurassic World; could still recover and be fueled by WOM to top $200M. Inside Out 2 continues with good legs and after becoming the first $1.7B grosser; will become also the first $1.8B grosser after Tuesday. As mentioned earlier; it's now just matter of time to see it reach $100M USD and 25M admissions. Next weekend will see a big screen loss for everything from 10th to 5th spots. From there; everything else will remain in just enough screens to counter-program; there are no other major openers this weekend besides Marvel's Deadpool & Wolverine. 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted July 23 Share Posted July 23 (edited) On 7/20/2024 at 9:43 AM, Carlangonz said: DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE - WEDNESDAY NIGHT PREVIEWS (T-5 DAYS) Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth Deadpool & Wolverine 13193 20649 63.89% +04.67% Comps at T-0 Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Comp in % Comp in lc Fast X 10139 16907 59.97% 130.12% $48.14M The Flash 5353 12348 43.35% 226% $36.16M Guardians 3 6643 12606 52.7% 182.12% $43.16M DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE - WEDNESDAY NIGHT PREVIEWS (T-2 DAYS) Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth Deadpool & Wolverine 14504 20868 69.5% +9.94% Comps at T-0 Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Comp in % Comp in lc Fast X 10139 16907 59.97% 143.05% $52.93M The Flash 5353 12348 43.35% 270.95% $43.35M Guardians 3 6643 12606 52.7% 218.34% $51.75M There's a nice jump ahead of release. Shall get a final and significant push before right before opening and finish over 16k. PLFs and IMAX represent a significant part of sales and will inflate ATP as well since all of them are 3D. Subtitled shows are lagging quite behind your regular dubbed shows even in areas where sub shows are the norm and are definitely holding back numbers at some locations. OPENING DAY - THURSDAY As for Thursday; numbers are coming in pretty strong as well: Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Deadpool & Wolverine 9005 50414 17.86% Full OD (Wed previews + Thursday) is looking like this: Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Deadpool & Wolverine 23509 71282 32.98% Don't think I have pretty good comps for this because: a) Not same level of fan-rush and b) Nothing even comparable to a Rated-C. Only stuff I have for a combined OD at a similar point before release is: Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Comp in % Comp in lc Fast X* 8735 63055 13.85% 269.14% $199.7M The Flash* 4628 52014 8.9% 507.97% $213.35M Freddy's** 10354 19011 54.46% 227.05% $113.53M * Data from Monday for previews and Tuesday for opening day. ** At the very same point; Monday for both previews and opening day. At a couple of individual locations; seems like will finish above Love & Thunder but below Multiverse of Madness. Let's see how accelerates on the next couple of days but feels like should go to a $150M opening day with an all-time ATP for a blockbuster. In all, is having a marvelous cycle; best presales overall for a single title since Multiverse of Madness and may even go for Barbenheimer combined. Edited July 23 by Carlangonz 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purple Minion Posted July 24 Author Share Posted July 24 IO2 reached $98.6M through Tuesday, as per Disney. ER is like a yo-yo, hopefully it'll fall below 18 again by the weekend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 It'll take a while since I have to compile Thursday info but 10 minutes left to first preview shows and everything saw a massive surge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 On 7/22/2024 at 8:14 PM, Carlangonz said: DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE - WEDNESDAY NIGHT PREVIEWS (T-2 DAYS) Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth Deadpool & Wolverine 14504 20868 69.5% +9.94% Comps at T-0 Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Comp in % Comp in lc Fast X 10139 16907 59.97% 143.05% $52.93M The Flash 5353 12348 43.35% 270.95% $43.35M Guardians 3 6643 12606 52.7% 218.34% $51.75M OPENING DAY - THURSDAY As for Thursday; numbers are coming in pretty strong as well: Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Deadpool & Wolverine 9005 50414 17.86% Full OD (Wed previews + Thursday) is looking like this: Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Deadpool & Wolverine 23509 71282 32.98% DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE - WEDNESDAY NIGHT PREVIEWS (T-0.5 HOURS) Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth from T-2 Deadpool & Wolverine 17995 21120 85.2% +24.07% Comps at the same point before release: Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth from T-2 Comp in % Comp in lc Fast X 10139 16907 59.97% +55.98% 177.48% $65.67M The Flash 5353 12348 43.35% +30.23% 336.17% $53.79M Guardians 3 6643 12606 52.7% N/A 270.89% $64.2M In retrospective; Flash's final hours look even worse than they did; awful numbers. But tremendous final jump for Wade and Logan approaching 90% capacity which could've been if theaters had exchanged some sub shows for dub ones. At mini-comps for individual locations compared to: Multiverse of Madness - $72M Love & Thunder - $49M Wakanda Forever - $49M The Way of Water - $49M With this level of fan rush plus a boost from a high ATP and a lot of spillover going to nearest theaters and smaller chains; I think we're closing to $80M previews or about $4.3M USD setting a new record above Multiverse of Madness' $70M figure back in 2022. DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE - THURDAY OPENING (T-17 HOURS) Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth from T-3 Deadpool & Wolverine 13232 54110 24.45% +46.94% Comps at the same point before release Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth from T-3 Comp in % Comp in lc Fast X 3639 46967 7.75% +62.82% 363.62% $135.63M The Flash 2489 40141 6.2% +34.91% 531.62% $138.22M Spiderverse 13954 33397 41.78% +42,43% 94.83% $37.93M Barbie 23370 45283 51.61% +53.49% 56.62% $60.3M Apples to oranges but added Spiververse and Barbie because they faced capacity restrictions which could be compared to audience limitations for this one that basically cuts off any presence from families and teens; in the case of the latter are a large component of MCU's core viewership. Deadline expressed about this earlier this week: Quote Notably, on this domestically R-rated movie, the film has scored 18+ ratings in both Mexico and Brazil, which could impact play. The last two DP movies were rated 16+. OPENING DAY + PREVIEWS When combining previews with OD; we'd get something like this: Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth from T-3 Deadpool & Wolverine 31227 75230 41.51% +32.83% Comps at the same point before release: Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth from T-3 Comp in % Comp in lc Fast X 13778 63874 21.57% +57.73% 226.64% $168.17M The Flash 7842 52489 14.94% +69.45% 398.2% $167.24M Freddy's 12635 37896 33.34% +22.03% 247.15% $123.58M Screens should not be a concern as this aims to be the second widest release this year only behind Inside Out 2 and by far the largest for a C-rating; about 4,600 compared to 2,800 from Logan or 1,800 from John Wick 3 (Chapter 4 was B-15). I'm going with Barbie comp on Thu and Fast X/Flash for OD + Previews; Thursday should be good enough to replicate Strange's split for OD and pull a $170M opening day. We'll be on the fence to see how Fri-Sun behaves considering the rating that could impact mostly Sunday. Anyway, with such level of buzz and hype; it should come around a $400M opening weekend; about $21M USD pending on how ER moves after a shaky Wednesday. This would be also over Barbie's July record (TFSS) of $385M 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 80 + 80 + 80 + 100 + 110 = 450+ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: 80 + 80 + 80 + 100 + 110 = 450+ That's pretty much MOM's path which could be if there's a bigger gain than expected on ATP. Tough to weight loss by rating; Deadpool isn't particularly a Marvel property that should appeal teens and children like Spidey, Thor or even Strange himself but still does it anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 (edited) Well that's a bummer; $57M from Wednesday Night Previews, way too contracted and more akin to The Flash (on comps). Weekend shall be on mid 300s Edited July 25 by Carlangonz 7 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 Thor comp said 49m. So it seems in line with atp boost. May be rating limits walkups. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 46 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said: Thor comp said 49m. So it seems in line with atp boost. May be rating limits walkups. For one I overshoot on ATP; while high is not that much compared to recent adult titles like Quiet Place or C-Rated pics like Poor Things. I think part of this is overperformance on 2nd and 3rd tier markets where prices are considerably lower. Lesson is always compare MCU only to other MCU releases; Strange was too much of an outlier as well but not really sure why. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...