Purple Minion Posted May 2, 2023 Author Share Posted May 2, 2023 (edited) Bloody hell. Mario almost grossed the same yesterday as US/Canada! Monday, dom: $2.16M Monday, Mexico: $2.09M *est Edited May 2, 2023 by Purple Minion 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted May 2, 2023 Share Posted May 2, 2023 On 4/28/2023 at 3:52 PM, Carlangonz said: (T-6 OPENING DAY, T-5 PREVIEWS) Perisur - 915/5,592 (16.36% ocuppancy) +16.26% from T-8 Buenavista - 1,035/6,525 (15.85% occupancy) +18.02% from T-8 (T-2 OPENING DAY, T-1 PREVIEWS). OD + PREVIEWS Perisur - 1,247/5,592 (22.3% ocuppancy) +36.28% from T-6, +22.01% from T-4 Buenavista - 1,472/6,525 (22.56% occupancy) +42.22% from T-6, +28.11% from T-4 Similar to US we're need stronger walk-ups than any other CBM from last and this year in order to end in the high end of range. Previews does seem to be settling within $15M-$20M due to lack of capacity and (hopefully) less fan-rush. Comps will be useless until tomorrow but so far everything remains pointing to $2.2M +/- $0.2M 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thajdikt Posted May 2, 2023 Share Posted May 2, 2023 1 minute ago, Carlangonz said: (T-2 OPENING DAY, T-1 PREVIEWS). OD + PREVIEWS Perisur - 1,247/5,592 (22.3% ocuppancy) +36.28% from T-6, +22.01% from T-4 Buenavista - 1,472/6,525 (22.56% occupancy) +42.22% from T-6, +28.11% from T-4 Similar to US we're need stronger walk-ups than any other CBM from last and this year in order to end in the high end of range. Previews does seem to be settling within $15M-$20M due to lack of capacity and (hopefully) less fan-rush. Comps will be useless until tomorrow but so far everything remains pointing to $2.2M +/- $0.2M What did Ant-Man do OD + previews? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted May 2, 2023 Share Posted May 2, 2023 10 minutes ago, thajdikt said: What did Ant-Man do OD + previews? $2.4M. Or about $44.6M in lc. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted May 2, 2023 Share Posted May 2, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Purple Minion said: Bloody hell. Mario almost grossed the same yesterday as US/Canada! Monday, dom: $2.16M Monday, Mexico: $2.09M *est I really can't believe Mario's 4th Monday may be on par with Guardians 3's first 1.5 days. Really tells a lot about each of them and current status of their respective brands Speaking of Universal: massive initial show count for Fast X. May be the largest count since Multiverse of Madness. Edited May 2, 2023 by Carlangonz 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted May 3, 2023 Share Posted May 3, 2023 (edited) GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 - PREVIEWS (T-0 DAYS) In order to get more data for future releases I expanded the current sample to 8 locations that cover most of Mexico City and metro area. These locations vary on their formats, language, audience and even time offer so they're a good starting point for upcoming releases. I'll see how they can adjust and either remove them for most releases and leave them only for big tentpoles as a 'tie-breaker' or completely replace them for other nearby. Location Occupied seats Total seats Occupancy (%) Perisur 988 1656 59.66% Buenavista 1216 1730 70.29% Las Antenas 798 1317 60.59% Satélite 725 1752 41.38% Parque Toreo 595 1014 58.58% Cd Jardin 1258 2282 55.13% Las Américas 564 2091 26.97% Cosmopol 499 764 65.31% Five of these locations are among Top 20 most attended complexes in the country and they're quite different between each other. Three of them offer IMAX, five of them 4DX, two Screen X, five of them Junior auditoriums, two PLFs and four VIPs/dine-in. As for historical comps and how they're currently tracking Perisur Comp Occupied seats Total seats Occupancy (%) Comp in lc Wakanda Forever 1901 2820 67.41% $15.3M Love & Thunder 2431 3970 61.23% $17.41M Buenavista Comp Occupied seats Total seats Occupancy (%) Comp in lc Wakanda Forever 1594 1942 82.08% $22.43M Love & Thunder 2177 3016 72.18% $23.21M As expected comps remain pointing towards high 10s to low 20s with Love & Thunder's as a most appropiate in terms of occupancy. Perisur grew a whopping 28.1% in the last 24 hours and Buenavista a modest 19.3% but the truth is that both are capping since only Perisur opened a new VIP show which filled in pretty quick. From above comps' three locations got a similar growth as Perisur and other three grew similar to Buenavista so let's go for high 10s and well just over $1M and an extra $0.1M-$0.2M Edited May 3, 2023 by Carlangonz 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted May 3, 2023 Share Posted May 3, 2023 (edited) GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 - OPENING DAY INCL PREVIEWS (T-1 DAY) Location Occupied seats Total seats Occupancy (%) Perisur 1639 6388 25.66% Buenavista 1832 8255 22.19% Increase came a bit more muted than in previous days even considering Perisur added a whole screen to it. Casuals may are being careful with reception before rushing into getting tickets so that could mean better walk-ins. Perisur Comp Occupied seats Total seats Occupancy (%) Comp in lc Multiverse of Madness 5316 9973 53.30% $50.17M Love & Thunder 3274 16790 19.50% $38.24M Buenavista Comp Occupied seats Total seats Occupancy (%) Comp in lc Multiverse of Madness 6308 9609 65.64% $47.10M Love & Thunder 3238 10082 32.12% $43.28M Unfourtunately I don't have any comps from either Quantumania or Wakanda Forever for this one and The Batman was a full OD without previews which aims to low to mid 30s which would aim to Quantumania territory. Multiverse of Madness was a bit inflated by spillover from previews, fan-rush and a part-holiday and Love & Thunder had no much going for it so WOM damaged it pretty quickly. Reception from critics is mixed-to-positive but bloggers and youtubers seem to be enjoying it and saying the 'dark' stuff isn't much hard so I think audiences are going to eat it quite good.Opening Day incl. previews - $42M-$46M ($2.3M-$2.6M) Opening Weekend - $170M-$180M ($9.5M-$10.05M)Super Mario Bros eyes a $65M-$75M fifth weekend. New record and may surpass Endgame this very Sunday. Edited May 3, 2023 by Carlangonz 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted May 3, 2023 Share Posted May 3, 2023 I thought Fast X would be getting a full 5-Day opening but it's going for a 4-Day with Wed night previews starting at 7:00PM so comps are going to be appropiate. In some locations is getting over double of preview screenings than those of Guardians. I won't start counting until Monday but I'll take a look on Fri at main locations to get an idea of how might go. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 Not seeing increase in shows from tracked locations and overall not significant among major markets. However walk-ups definitely exploding. Previews coming in the higher end of $1.2M. On par with Quantumania with a potentially better WOM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 (edited) If I read this correctly Previews pre-sales were 47% of Thor & actuals look like will be around 50%. OD pre-sales (not inc Previews) were 66% of Thor. So perhaps M$28M OD without previews. M$50M overall. also the 5th is a holiday. So hoping 50 45-50 50 50 // 195-200 Edited May 4, 2023 by charlie Jatinder Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 7 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: If I read this correctly Previews pre-sales were 47% of Thor & actuals look like will be around 50%. OD pre-sales (not inc Previews) were 66% of Thor. So perhaps M$28M OD without previews. M$50M overall. also the 5th is a holiday. So hoping 50 45-50 50 50 // 195-200 I'm going for higher previews and lower Thu but yeah full OD + Previews quite like $45M-$50M. Quantumania pretty much was a mirror of Love & Thunder so I'm expecting this to behave like Wakanda Forever and deliver an internal multi around 4x. Also 5th is a part-holiday because it's neither an official or bank holiday. Some kids in lowest grades are off for the day but everything is quite normal so perhaps lower figure and definitely bigger for Sunday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 Just now, Carlangonz said: I'm going for higher previews and lower Thu but yeah full OD + Previews quite like $45M-$50M. Quantumania pretty much was a mirror of Love & Thunder so I'm expecting this to behave like Wakanda Forever and deliver an internal multi around 4x. Also 5th is a part-holiday because it's neither an official or bank holiday. Some kids in lowest grades are off for the day but everything is quite normal so perhaps lower figure and definitely bigger for Sunday. Will suggest you to do comps differently for Previews & THU. Combining them will make the calculations more in line with how previews are looking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 (edited) 5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: Will suggest you to do comps differently for Previews & THU. Combining them will make the calculations more in line with how previews are looking. Yeah is actually why I added more locs to avoid any skew in future releases. Current comps work fine for things that are going to be big anyway but I'm expecting them to be different for stuff like Dune II or Indy 5 so hopefully by that time I already got everything combined. Edited May 4, 2023 by Carlangonz 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 On 5/3/2023 at 3:25 PM, Carlangonz said: Love & Thunder 2177 3016 72.18% $23.21M Spot on. $1.32M looking towards $2.8M opening day incl previews. Pretty good WOM from what I've seen. Consensus does seems to agree it's Marvel's best since Endgame. Weekend should nab low to mid $11M opening. In lc right in the middle between Wakanda Forever and Quantumania. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thajdikt Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, Carlangonz said: Spot on. $1.32M looking towards $2.8M opening day incl previews. Pretty good WOM from what I've seen. Consensus does seems to agree it's Marvel's best since Endgame. Weekend should nab low to mid $11M opening. In lc right in the middle between Wakanda Forever and Quantumania. Nice. Hopefully it can have some good legs before Fast X comes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 8 minutes ago, thajdikt said: Nice. Hopefully it can have some good legs before Fast X comes. Now I think Disney messed up with the release and should've moved up the release a week earlier. It would've benefited so much from May 1st. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thajdikt Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 5 minutes ago, Carlangonz said: Now I think Disney messed up with the release and should've moved up the release a week earlier. It would've benefited so much from May 1st. 100% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 Strong first day of sales for Fast X. Previews placing at 22% from Guardians' final count in similar locs. One out of the sample delayed presales so is removed from sample. I'm expecting it to be a remarkable strong location for it. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 (edited) 13 hours ago, Carlangonz said: Strong first day of sales for Fast X. Previews placing at 22% from Guardians' final count in similar locs. First 30 hours of sales 1531 sold/15448 total available. 0.26 of Guardians of the Galaxy 3 - (T-0 Days) VIP dubbed and 4DX-3D most occupied shows so far. Let's see how much it moves across the weekend and with the Guardians/Mario combo and get back on Monday. Edited May 5, 2023 by Carlangonz 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Issac Newton Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 47 minutes ago, Carlangonz said: Fist 30 hours of sales 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...