Weekend Thread | Violent Night 1.1M in previews

[Eric Prime]

2 hours ago, jedijake said:

That's most likely. That isn't much past CM (I didn't say at or below CM).

 

I'll probably get another slap in the face from MODS for being consistently pessimistic, even though it's just stating facts lol.

Your "pessimism" isn't the problem, but your attitude. Every single week you act hyperbolic over this one movie's performance. Every single day you act as if Wakanda Forever is this epic failure and that Marvel's dead forever. And every time people tell you that things aren't that bad and that its run is normal due to its release date, reception, and because it's a direct sequel to a major overperformer, all from experts who know the box office like the back of their hand, you still carry on with your meltdowns and act like a child. Or worse, that we all have something to hide and that a movie that is making more money than we will ever make in our lifetimes is something we are all pretending is not a huge bomb.

 

Like what is your gain with all this? Does your life depend on Wakanda Forever hitting 450M or something? Will the universe implode on itself because this random movie isn't making the money you want? Are you afraid Papa Feige won't afford his new yacht because of this one specific movie? No, no, and no. So why are you having all these meltdowns and making things worse for everybody? If you want to say a basic remark on how the film is doing, then go on ahead. But if you're going to act like a child and have all these meltdowns and do this passive-aggression towards other users and the staff, then the staff will treat you like a child.

 

So please stop with this hyperbole and meltdowns and this condescension or you will be threadbanned. And if you don't like how things are run, then like I always say, feel free to find another forum or website. We are not the only place online where you can talk about Black panther with people.

[Nikostar]

7 minutes ago, Eric Claus said:

Your "pessimism" isn't the problem, but your attitude. Every single week you act hyperbolic over this one movie's performance. Every single day you act as if Wakanda Forever is this epic failure and that Marvel's dead forever. And every time people tell you that things aren't that bad and that its run is normal due to its release date, reception, and because it's a direct sequel to a major overperformer, all from experts who know the box office like the back of their hand, you still carry on with your meltdowns and act like a child. Or worse, that we all have something to hide and that a movie that is making more money than we will ever make in our lifetimes is something we are all pretending is not a huge bomb.

 

Like what is your gain with all this? Does your life depend on Wakanda Forever hitting 450M or something? Will the universe implode on itself because this random movie isn't making the money you want? Are you afraid Papa Feige won't afford his new yacht because of this one specific movie? No, no, and no. So why are you having all these meltdowns and making things worse for everybody? If you want to say a basic remark on how the film is doing, then go on ahead. But if you're going to act like a child and have all these meltdowns and do this passive-aggression towards other users and the staff, then the staff will treat you like a child.

 

So please stop with this hyperbole and meltdowns and this condescension or you will be threadbanned. And if you don't like how things are run, then like I always say, feel free to find another forum or website. We are not the only place online where you can talk about Black panther with people.

This

Edited December 3, 2022 by Nikostar

[Eric Prime]

 

[Eric Prime]

 

[Cooper Legion]

I mean, the last 3 days have all been pretty bad (going of 4.5). The problem is, as Eric says, the hyperbole and condescension, not the opinion that BPWF will have a pretty meh total in itself.  

 

 

[Cooper Legion]

Menu quietly having a pretty nice run here, for what it is. May continue to leg well through the month.

[Nero]

Anyone knows where John is? He was active in MCU thread back in the day. He was also pretty pessimistic guy xD. Kinda miss that guy. 

Edited December 3, 2022 by Nero

[Cooper Legion]

Looks like maybe 16.5M BP, 4.7M SW, very rough in both cases compared to pro forecasts (22.1M, 5.5M) and derby avg (21.7, 5.44).  
 

In contrast menu with ~3,6M vs (3.05, 3.12)

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

One way or another I can say that WF's run has made me rethink the MCU's box office in general. As some may recall, myself and others had much higher expectations before sales started and they didn't pan out. @Eric Claus had a viewpoint that was much more in line with what is actually happening. In the end, 435 / 810 is a great number in a vacuum but feels lackluster nonetheless. 

 

For the MCU in 2023, I'm currently thinking....

AMQ = 275 / 575

GOTG3 = 425 / 825

Marvels = 320 / 710

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

6 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

Looks like maybe 16.5M BP, 4.7M SW, very rough in both cases compared to pro forecasts (22.1M, 5.5M) and derby avg (21.7, 5.44).  
 

In contrast menu with ~3,6M vs (3.05, 3.12)

 

I had WF at $16.95 in my pre-Derby math but I kept thinking that couldn't be right so I went with a more "expected" drop. Turns out, it was right. 

[Cooper Legion]

2022 had two awful movies+a solid one which was unfortunately spin-off-y due to a tragic real world event. 2023 movies having weak af trailer views though. I think saga 2 will end up getting impacted pretty hard if they can’t get back to consistently good-great movies — and the nature of the saga could make that pretty tricky 👀   
 

Will be interesting to see a few more firmly post-pandemic data points but definitely applying a penalty now relative to “normal mcu performance” (I.e. infinity saga, which Audiences may be treating as increasingly distinct now that there’s been more of a stark break).

[Cooper Legion]

3 minutes ago, XXR 4 Modsident said:

 

I had WF at $16.95 in my pre-Derby math but I kept thinking that couldn't be right so I went with a more "expected" drop. Turns out, it was right. 

This is why you’ve gotta split the difference between daily calculations and external expectations with a value like, say, 19     
 

I just need bones to do good, that’s my big swing this week 😂

[Tokugennumataka]

186% jump is catastrophic for an animated film this time of year. Looks like legs are gonna be really weak on SW, which is a shame. 

[exomassey]

With mixed reception, no China, quantity over quality and a post endgame slump, the MCU has probably past its peak. 

Phase 4 movies being full of mostly sequel and poor new characters (Eternals) doesn’t help either.

 

Also with Disney+ growth, more casual fans probably just wait for the films to pop up on the service.

 

[exomassey]

21 minutes ago, XXR 4 Modsident said:

One way or another I can say that WF's run has made me rethink the MCU's box office in general. As some may recall, myself and others had much higher expectations before sales started and they didn't pan out. @Eric Claus had a viewpoint that was much more in line with what is actually happening. In the end, 435 / 810 is a great number in a vacuum but feels lackluster nonetheless. 

 

For the MCU in 2023, I'm currently thinking....

AMQ = 275 / 575

GOTG3 = 425 / 825

Marvels = 320 / 710

I don’t see the Marvels making 320 domestic, maybe 220 if it’s good.

 

The first Captain Marvel had the Endgame bump.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

4 minutes ago, exomassey said:

I don’t see the Marvels making 320 domestic, maybe 220 if it’s good.

 

The first Captain Marvel had the Endgame bump.

 

It would need sub Morbius IM to only hit 220. 

[ringedmortality]

Just checking in real quick, are theaters dead yet 

[Factcheck]

1 minute ago, XXR 4 Modsident said:

 

It would need sub Morbius IM to only hit 220. 

Marvel Studios will need to treat Captain Marvel as a big character if they want a 100M+ OW. The general audience doesn't much care for just another character; they go to the theatre for big characters. Ant-Man and Shang-Chi are some good examples here.

[Cooper Legion]

3 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

Just checking in real quick, are theaters dead yet 

Yep

[Eric Prime]