Weekday Thread (12/5 - 12/8)

[GOGODanca]

		Movie Title	Distributor	Gross	%YD	%LW	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Days In Release
1	(1)	Black Panther: Wakanda Fo…	Walt Disney	$1,162,850	-76%	-47%	3,855	$302	$394,833,978	25
-	(4)	The Menu	Searchlight …	$363,149	-60%	-26%	2,810	$129	$25,003,205	18
-	(3)	Strange World	Walt Disney	$256,081	-83%	-41%	4,174	$61	$25,940,152	13
-	(6)	Devotion	Sony Pictures	$250,000	-64%	-42%	3,405	$73	$13,975,108	13
-	(7)	Black Adam	Warner Bros.	$104,803	-76%	-36%	2,231	$47	$165,176,494	46
-	(11)	Top Gun: Maverick	Paramount Pi…	$70,315	-62%		1,864	$38	$717,818,451	193
-	(-)	The Banshees of Inisherin	Searchlight …	$28,137	-57%	-18%	320	$88	$8,293,464	46
-	(13)	Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile	Sony Pictures	$18,000	-86%	-60%	1,276	$14	$45,763,964	60
-	(-)	Prey for the Devil	Lionsgate	$16,771	-66%	-38%	345	$49	$19,418,655	39
-	(-)	Smile	Paramount Pi…	$13,946	-65%	-51%	366	$38	$105,752,228	67
-	(-)	The Woman King	Sony Pictures	$4,000	-70%	-65%	168	$24	$67,107,853	81
-	(-)	2nd Chance	Bleecker Street	$424	-49%		5	$85	$5,691	4

[CaptNathanBrittles]

BP still looking at a mid-$420m finish with that hold.

[Nikostar]

5 minutes ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

BP still looking at a mid-$420m finish with that hold.

I think we should know by now that weekends are more important for BP and Christmas break.

[Valonqar]

Yeah, it's a Saturday player. 

[CaptNathanBrittles]

52 minutes ago, Nikostar said:

I think we should know by now that weekends are more important for BP and Christmas break.

 

By the time the Christmas break comes along AVATAR will be here and BP will be dead!

 

I've been waiting for BP's legs to materialize but despite having virtually no competition they simply haven't. To get beyond the $420ms it would have to have better legs than the original from here on out and I don't see that happening.

[Krissykins]

39 minutes ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

 

By the time the Christmas break comes along AVATAR will be here and BP will be dead!

 

I've been waiting for BP's legs to materialize but despite having virtually no competition they simply haven't. To get beyond the $420ms it would have to have better legs than the original from here on out and I don't see that happening.

It’s only $25m away and is just coming off a $17m weekend. 
 

No competition this weekend. Then it’ll be the back up choice against avatar, then it’s Christmas and then new year. 
 

It’ll make another $25m. Comfortably. 

[Nikostar]

3 hours ago, Krissykins said:

It’s only $25m away and is just coming off a $17m weekend. 
 

No competition this weekend. Then it’ll be the back up choice against avatar, then it’s Christmas and then new year. 
 

It’ll make another $25m. Comfortably. 

Exactly

[CaptNathanBrittles]

4 hours ago, Krissykins said:

It’s only $25m away and is just coming off a $17m weekend. 
 

No competition this weekend. Then it’ll be the back up choice against avatar, then it’s Christmas and then new year. 
 

It’ll make another $25m. Comfortably. 

 

It's more like $32m give or take a few million.

 

It'll drop to around $8-$9m this weekend leaving it at about $404m by Monday.

 

I'll be expecting a 60%+ drop the next weekend when AVATAR 2 releases.

[PlatnumRoyce]

Has anyone played around with Movio's weekend box office demographic data?

https://movio.co/resources/weekend-insights-20/

 

I tried to match them up to the weekend's box office to get an implied weekend box office number that was wildly inaccurate this week (saw Violent Night winning the weekend) but decentish last weekend. Should I trust their

 

Tried to see how it would work as a posttrak supplement (using yearly baseline demo splits as a baseline) and I don't think it worked very well. Worth trying again? Citing as it's own implied demo split?

[Eric Prime]

← Previous Chart

Chart Index

		Movie Title	Distributor	Gross	%YD	%LW	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Days In Release
1	(1)	Black Panther: Wakanda Fo…	Walt Disney	$1,567,075	+35%	-42%	3,855	$407	$396,401,053	26
2	(2)	Violent Night	Universal	$1,494,745	+46%		3,682	$406	$15,967,545	5
3	(3)	The Menu	Searchlight …	$523,159	+44%	-21%	2,810	$186	$25,526,364	19
4	(6)	Devotion	Sony Pictures	$435,776	+74%	-35%	3,405	$128	$14,411,727	14
5	(5)	Strange World	Walt Disney	$372,648	+46%	-31%	4,174	$89	$26,312,800	14
6	(4)	Johnny Cash: The Redempti…	Fathom Events	$255,244	-18%		971	$263	$566,812	2
7	(9)	The Fabelmans	Universal	$205,020	+57%	-14%	638	$321	$5,870,216	26
8	(7)	Bones and All	United Artists	$193,258	+25%	-40%	2,727	$71	$6,386,884	19
9	(-)	Evangelion: 3.0+1.01 Thri…	GKIDS	$187,329			676	$277	$187,329	7
10	(8)	I Heard the Bells	Fathom Events	$169,934	+23%		939	$181	$3,079,412	6
11	(10)	Black Adam	Warner Bros.	$139,374	+33%	-32%	2,231	$62	$165,315,868	47
12	(11)	Ticket to Paradise	Universal	$128,740	+60%	-28%	1,715	$75	$66,737,895	47
-	(12)	Top Gun: Maverick	Paramount Pi…	$90,933	+29%	+4,556%	1,864	$49	$717,909,384	194
-	(-)	She Said	Universal	$64,485	+40%	-61%	1,117	$58	$5,413,380	19
-	(-)	The Chosen Season 3: Epis…	Fathom Events	$46,194	+3%	-75%	696	$66	$14,497,554	19
-	(-)	The Banshees of Inisherin	Searchlight …	$35,701	+27%	-6%	320	$112	$8,329,165	47
-	(-)	Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile	Sony Pictures	$35,156	+82%	+7%	1,276	$28	$45,800,450	61
-	(-)	Prey for the Devil	Lionsgate	$17,539	+5%	-38%	345	$51	$19,436,194	40
-	(-)	TÁR	Focus Features	$14,400	+34%	+36%	97	$148	$5,275,953	61
-	(-)	Smile	Paramount Pi…	$12,611	-10%	-53%	366	$34	$105,764,839	68
-	(-)	Till	United Artists	$10,019	+19%	-30%	127	$79	$8,904,591	54
-	(-)	Spoiler Alert	Focus Features	$5,800	+31%		6	$967	$93,201	5
-	(-)	The Woman King	Sony Pictures	$5,513	+45%	-68%	168	$33	$67,113,157	82
-	(-)	Decibel	Wide Lens Pi…	$4,377	+5%		21	$208	$33,354	5
-	(-)	2nd Chance	Bleecker Street	$643	+52%		5	$129	$6,334	5
		25		$6,015,673

[DTP]

Looks like BP won't have that much better of a multiplier than MOM despite considerably better reviews and reception. Bummer. 

 

Still, top 3 domestic for the year is a win. And it should pass The Batman to end #6 WW (the latter will be the only non-sequel in the top 10!). 

[Valonqar]

If multi won't be much better than MOM than reception isn't much better either. CS, Audience scores are unreliable. Reviews don't refelect WOM. 

Edited December 8, 2022 by Valonqar

[Nikostar]

16 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

If multi won't be much better than MOM than reception isn't much better either. CS, Audience scores are unreliable. Reviews don't refelect WOM. 

Reception is way way better than MOM. Hell even Black Adam is better. Box office don’t always reflect audience scores but even a blind can’t can see BPWF is a far superior film. Even with everything that film went through Ryan Coogler was able to pull it off.

Edited December 8, 2022 by Nikostar

[Nero]

2 hours ago, Valonqar said:

If multi won't be much better than MOM than reception isn't much better either. CS, Audience scores are unreliable. Reviews don't refelect WOM. 

Reception is way better than any MCU movies this year. This is coming off of MoM and Thor L&T which both weren't that good, couple that with no Chadwick and movie itself is downer which is limiting it's repeat viewing. BPWF has lot of things working against it but reception is definitely not one of them. 

[Verrows]

1 hour ago, Nero said:

Reception is way better than any MCU movies this year. This is coming off of MoM and Thor L&T which both weren't that good, couple that with no Chadwick and movie itself is downer which is limiting it's repeat viewing. BPWF has lot of things working against it but reception is definitely not one of them. 

Which is why it's so befuddling that it's not doing better business. That doesn't meant it hasn't done good business in a vacuum, but the post-OW performance has been so...bleh for a movie that has been received well AND has zero competition. Seriously, the November box office this year is putrid.

[BluKyberCrystal]

2 hours ago, Verrows said:

Which is why it's so befuddling that it's not doing better business. That doesn't meant it hasn't done good business in a vacuum, but the post-OW performance has been so...bleh for a movie that has been received well AND has zero competition. Seriously, the November box office this year is putrid.

Could the content of the film be an issue? It's such a somber film that basically plays like a wake.

[Valonqar]

3 hours ago, Verrows said:

Which is why it's so befuddling that it's not doing better business. That doesn't meant it hasn't done good business in a vacuum, but the post-OW performance has been so...bleh for a movie that has been received well AND has zero competition. Seriously, the November box office this year is putrid.

 

It isn't befudding. It's simply that there's lack of interest relative to reception. People hear good things but don't care, shrug it off. Reception within a demo doesn't mean it will generate interest outside of it. BP played outside of Marvel fandom. BPWF obviously doesn't. Also, that there is lack of interest relative to reception is compounded by the fact that it isn't benefiting from lack of competition. Those who aren't interested simply stay home, watch Wednesday or other popular show or catch theatrical movies on streaming. They don't come to see WF for the sake of going to cinema, which is how lack of compeititon is supposed to work in theory. 

[Nero]

51 minutes ago, BluKyberCrystal said:

Could the content of the film be an issue? It's such a somber film that basically plays like a wake.

Yes it's definitely one of the reason. I although I enjoyed it very much it's not a movie I would watch it again and again.

[Cooper Legion]

The legs are normal for a hyped sequel. Opening was inflated. 
 

TDW: 3.23x multi from satsun (slightly inflated sun from vet Eve tbf)

DS1: 3.81x

Rag: 3.52x

Et: 3.32x

 

BP looks headed toward ~450M, for 3.77x. Being appreciably better than rag and in the ballpark of DS1 is a sign of great reception, on the optimistic side of where expectations should have been ow sun.    
 

This is part of why the ow was 😬

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

3 hours ago, Legion By Night said:

The legs are normal for a hyped sequel.

ATWOW 2.5x IM incoming