M37 Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 I cannot express how much I detest trying to predict these low grossing titles 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 11 minutes ago, M37 said: I cannot express how much I detest trying to predict these low grossing titles Top 3 for the week looks like top 3 for violent night. The other 9 movies barely matter, only the one that nobody gives a shit about 😅 FTR I did advocate for dropping it for house party 👀 Anyway we’ll have weighted scoring on the sheet but otherwise just gonn have to wait til march-ish 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 (edited) 4 hours ago, Legion in Boots said: Congrats to @TalismanRing with the 80k for VN, may add another 100% to your lifetime stats I may have overshot with the 80k. These low grossers are killers. Worse may be the freaking Whale which never has theater counts or even dailies. I haven't been close one damn week until this week. Edited January 14, 2023 by TalismanRing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 19 hours ago, TalismanRing said: I may have overshot with the 80k. These low grossers are killers. Worse may be the freaking Whale which never has theater counts or even dailies. I haven't been close one damn week until this week. $70K Sunday estimate for Violent Night Standings w/ Sunday estimates: Without Violent Night: (Also @katnisscinnaplex edges into top spot if you take out Babylon too) 23 hours ago, M37 said: I cannot express how much I detest trying to predict these low grossing titles 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Show us only VN and Babylon to contrast with the full 10 order 👀 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 9 minutes ago, M37 said: $70K Sunday estimate for Violent Night Standings w/ Sunday estimates: Without Violent Night: (Also @katnisscinnaplex edges into top spot if you take out Babylon too) I knew I should have kept it at 70k, I was going to split the difference with 75k until I realized it was so low I ran out of decimal places. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katnisscinnaplex Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 I tried to update at quarter to lock but couldn’t get back into the site 😔 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 15 minutes ago, TalismanRing said: I knew I should have kept it at 70k, I was going to split the difference with 75k until I realized it was so low I ran out of decimal places. How were you even in that ballpark? Was clear a massive drop was coming, but -90%???? Should have at least been able to match PTA from last week. Guessing it caught a fair amount of M3G spillover that didn’t repeat Also, we should absolutely switch to 3 digit decimals (and not just because I lost a week last year due to rounding) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 (edited) 12 minutes ago, M37 said: How were you even in that ballpark? Was clear a massive drop was coming, but -90%???? Should have at least been able to match PTA from last week. Guessing it caught a fair amount of M3G spillover that didn’t repeat Also, we should absolutely switch to 3 digit decimals (and not just because I lost a week last year due to rounding) The recent PTA drops looked really bad. Last week it lost 600 theaters and PTA dropped almost 60% and overall 67% while other films dropped in the 30s and Babylon dropped 46% with a much larger theater cut. The dailies were so low I thought it would lose 30-40% especially since the Christmas Holiday gimmick was over. OTOH I overestimated Babylon's drop. I thought it would drop around 20% and instead it went up 23% Edited January 15, 2023 by TalismanRing 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grebacio Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Spreedsheet is now udpated https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1BMEPoyDk7TN25-3VIR_jGTOPZlYulc6H6VbkXYDXkp0/edit#gid=1532021365 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 3 minutes ago, Grebacio said: Spreedsheet is now udpated https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1BMEPoyDk7TN25-3VIR_jGTOPZlYulc6H6VbkXYDXkp0/edit#gid=1532021365 Mostly the estimate function on the new site renders this obsolete for normal scoring, so let’s get some cube root weighting up in this bitch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grebacio Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 @Legion in Boots which movies should we use for next week? Missing Avatar M3GAN Puss Plane Otto House Party That Time I Got Reincarnated As a Slime Woman Talking Wakanda Is that slate ok? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Ain’t no way I wanna do Women Talking 😂 I’d be okay on slime but it might be rough for a lot of people. I think one more week of Whitney and keep whale — even though the nonreports and random expansions suck at least it’s been above 1M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 2 hours ago, Legion in Boots said: Ain’t no way I wanna do Women Talking 😂 I’d be okay on slime but it might be rough for a lot of people. I think one more week of Whitney and keep whale — even though the nonreports and random expansions suck at least it’s been above 1M Agree on this: no Women, Keep Whitney & Whale. Slime should be fine, so long as we have theater count. Don’t know enough about anime to gauge with more info Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grebacio Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 11 minutes ago, M37 said: Agree on this: no Women, M37 sexist confimed 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 hour ago, Grebacio said: M37 sexist confimed As long as they’re not talking 😂 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 After consultation with a council of key advisors, default weighting on player sheet set to ^.4. Looks like @M37 winning first weighted week by ~ a point over @TalismanRing. Will apply retroactively to all tracked weeks sometime over nest few days and note somewhere weeks that change winner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 As for next week we should get slime tc but wknd gross likely 1M ballpark which is p low for an opener. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 11 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said: After consultation with a council of key advisors, default weighting on player sheet set to ^.4. Looks like @M37 winning first weighted week by ~ a point over @TalismanRing. Will apply retroactively to all tracked weeks sometime over nest few days and note somewhere weeks that change winner. Let the record show I was in no way a part of the “council of key advisors” that came to this conclusion also remind me … what/how are we weighting by ^0.4? The gross of each title, then x score for prediction? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 (edited) 20 minutes ago, M37 said: Let the record show I was in no way a part of the “council of key advisors” that came to this conclusion also remind me … what/how are we weighting by ^0.4? The gross of each title, then x score for prediction? Yeah essentially though normalized to 100% at the end. Other way to think about it is each move getting a weight of its gross^.4/sum(each wknd gross^.4) This wk avatar’s gross^.4 is 4.02 and the sum across all movies is 20.19 so it gets 19.91 weight. VN’s gross goes to .35 (extremes outlier) so it gets weight of 1.71%. I think the sheet displays it pretty clearly/compactly atm Edited January 17, 2023 by Legion in Boots 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
