THE LITTLE MERMAID | 271.5M overseas | 569.6M worldwide

[Spidey Freak]

On 8/4/2023 at 12:31 AM, Valonqar said:

Well then they shouldn't have invested 250M in it or make a live action. Point being, Barbie will make well over twice that TLM made WW for little over half its budget.

 

I guess it was very vital for TLM to have a global movie star like Smith/Jolie/Watson in order to blow up like her Renaissance siblings, especially as the original was smaller than the other films.

 

He's not on the same level as a BO draw, but things would have been very, VERY different for Harry Styles RN if he had actually chosen Mermaid over Don't Worry Darling. I feel he would have given TLM the OS boost it desperately needed as well. That deal not going through hurt both parties IMO

 

As it stands now, TLM is making a little more than Cinderella WW which in retrospect makes sense as Ariel and Cindy make about the same amount of Disney Princess merchandising $$

Edited August 5, 2023 by Spidey Freak

[ThePrinceIsOnFire]

46 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

I guess it was very vital for TLM to have a global movie star like Smith/Jolie/Watson in order to blow up like her Renaissance siblings, especially as the original was smaller than the other films.

 

He's not on the same level as a BO draw, but things would have been very, VERY different for Harry Styles RN if he had actually chosen Mermaid over Don't Worry Darling. I feel he would have given TLM the OS boost it desperately needed as well. That deal not going through hurt both parties IMO

 

As it stands now, TLM is making a little more than Cinderella WW which in retrospect makes sense as Ariel and Cindy make about the same amount of Disney Princess merchandising $$

I agree. Though racebending Ariel certainly did affect the movie's total B.O. (and I would guess about 100-200 M WW were lost on that choice) the more important factor has been the lack of star power.

Which is why I believe that Snow White is even in a bigger danger, as it relies on Gal Gadot's fame who is not an estabilished actor out of Wonder Woman or a draw whatsoever. Snow White is a weaker property then TLM or Cinderella, has been already adapted with middling success and seems to be affected by so many changes, with no dwarves, prince and a change in ethnicity for the titular character; and unlike Ariel, where her race didn't really matter for the story to flow, in Snow White's case is going to be so hard to justify a change in her race, since aside from her name and her being "as white as snow" the whole story is very much rooted in Germany with a german estetic and typical buildings etc... IMHO the international public will completely reject Snow White, causing a huge loss for disney.

I'm also curious to see how Moana will perform; that one has The Rock but the property itself is not as strong internationally and a remake so soon doesn't really feel justified. 

 

My guess: Snow White 250-300 M WW

Moana 400-450 M WW.

[Bob Train]

Moana movie is another flop from the Rock in the making.

[1Robert1]

according to forbes Disney's net spending on the movie was $212.1 million, with this number movie will have a profit.

[Valonqar]

They can post as assurance articles about net profit and toy sales, etc nobody in the indsutry sees this as a success. It's getting absolutely clobbered by Oppenheimer lol. Nothing exists in a vacuum. The budget is still ridiculous, SFX didn't look good, movies with much smaller budget absolutely shit on it despite being tougher sells. Disney is now trying to drag it across 300M dom with singalong tricks cause it couldn't have done it otherwise. Compared to cheaper productions such as BatB, Aladdin and TLK, it's a massive disappointment and everyone knows it.

Edited August 5, 2023 by Valonqar

[1Robert1]

14 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

They can post as assurance articles about net profit and toy sales, etc nobody in the indsutry sees this as a success. It's getting absolutely clobbered by Oppenheimer lol. Nothing exists in a vacuum. The budget is still ridiculous, SFX didn't look good, movies with much smaller budget absolutely shit on it despite being tougher sells. Disney is now trying to drag it across 300M dom with singalong tricks cause it couldn't have done it otherwise. Compared to cheaper productions such as BatB, Aladdin and TLK, it's a massive disappointment and everyone knows it.

movie will make money, and it definitely helped toy sales so it's success not as big as disney wanted but still success

[Valonqar]

2 minutes ago, 1Robert1 said:

movie will make money, and it definitely helped toy sales so it's success not as big as disney wanted but still success

 

No. But keep telling that to yourself.  Success are SV, SoF, Barbenheimer. They don't need look toys! look squirrel! look our 250M budget magically dropped to 212.10M puff pieces. They are successes cause they look like success. They didn't have to crawl and pull tricks out of their asses to reach milestones. They smashed them. 

Edited August 5, 2023 by Valonqar

[1Robert1]

12 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

No. But keep telling that to yourself.  Success are SV, SoF, Barbenheimer. They don't need look toys! look squirrel! look our 250M budget magically dropped to 212.10M puff pieces. They are successes cause they look like success. They didn't have to crawl and pull tricks out of their asses to reach milestones. They smashed them. 

ok you hate this movie, so you will consider is a failure

[Valonqar]

11 minutes ago, 1Robert1 said:

ok you hate this movie, so you will consider is a failure

 

I don't hate the movie I hate the spin that something that clearly isn't success is. Cause it isn't fair to movies that are success. Every year has at least 3 such movies and like a clock they tend to be Disney movies. I guess that's how Disney fandom rolls.

Edited August 5, 2023 by Valonqar

[Bob Train]

I feel like if you have a bring up toys, then you've already lost the argument. Particularly since it's not like TLM is based off toys like Barbie or Transformers.

[Spidey Freak]

It's not a MASSIVE success but something has to be said for Hariel breaking even despite the avalanche of hate directed at Halle and how much some ppl wanted the film to fail.

 

Anyway TLM is the least of Iger's worries RN with Indy and Haunted Mansion bombage, Pixar floppage, Marvel floundering and future SW and WDAS installments looking unreliable. The fact that he's rumored to go back to the Disney Princess live action well for Rapunzel and Tiana already shows even TLM proved the remakes are a dependable form of revenue.

[ThePrinceIsOnFire]

DOMESTIC (52.4%)
$297,124,688

INTERNATIONAL (47.6%)
$269,468,038

WORLDWIDE
$566,592,726

 

Update via Boxofficemojo. Will release on disney+ on September 6, so it looks like the singalong version will be a Philippines only threat.  Might close next week theatrically (it only has 90 theatres right now) so it won't reach 300 M in USA.

As for international markets, it grossed about 2M in the last 7 days, but Japan has Barbie coming out finally which should affect its gross. Will likely end up at a total gross of 568 M dollars WW.

[kayumanggi]

On 8/3/2023 at 7:46 PM, kayumanggi said:

 

267.2M overseas | 564.2M worldwide

 

269.5M overseas | 566.7M worldwide

[TalismanRing]

On 8/5/2023 at 8:29 PM, Bob Train said:

I feel like if you have a bring up toys, then you've already lost the argument. Particularly since it's not like TLM is based off toys like Barbie or Transformers.

 

Why?  It's all part of making a budget.  Just like ancillaries.  No studio makes a budget just looking at theatrical. And Disney more than any other studio knows how to monetize their brands outside of theatrical. The difference is these are toys manufactured and sold by Disney.  It's their profit.

 

Regardless if their spend for production was $212m it's a financial success just with theatrical. Going on an on about how other movies were a bigger financial success so this one isn't a success is nonsense.

 

Edited August 13, 2023 by TalismanRing

[AniNate]

On 8/7/2023 at 2:57 PM, Spidey Freak said:

It's not a MASSIVE success but something has to be said for Hariel breaking even despite the avalanche of hate directed at Halle and how much some ppl wanted the film to fail.

 

Anyway TLM is the least of Iger's worries RN with Indy and Haunted Mansion bombage, Pixar floppage, Marvel floundering and future SW and WDAS installments looking unreliable. The fact that he's rumored to go back to the Disney Princess live action well for Rapunzel and Tiana already shows even TLM proved the remakes are a dependable form of revenue.

 

Not that I disagree that Little Mermaid is a success, but if you're still considering Elemental a "flop" at this point you're not really helping your case. They have pretty close to the same ratio of gross to budget. 

 

Edited August 13, 2023 by AniNate

[1Robert1]

1 hour ago, AniNate said:

 

Not that I disagree that Little Mermaid is a success, but if you're still considering Elemental a "flop" at this point you're not really helping your case. They have pretty close to the same ratio of gross to budget. 

 

if little mermaid budget was 212m, and elemental 200 we have 2.66 vs 2.2 ratio.

[AniNate]

Seems like 250m is the number that's made the rounds. In any case Disney probably isn't regretting the investment in either movie

[1Robert1]

DOMESTIC (52.4%)
$297,200,152

INTERNATIONAL (47.6%)
$270,321,722

WORLDWIDE
$567,521,874

[Spidey Freak]

On 8/14/2023 at 12:35 AM, AniNate said:

 

Not that I disagree that Little Mermaid is a success, but if you're still considering Elemental a "flop" at this point you're not really helping your case. They have pretty close to the same ratio of gross to budget. 

 

Yeah no, a peak summer Pixar film shouldn't have been opening that terribly in the first place. It's good that Elemental managed to save face but a leggier run is less profitable for the studio with the studio/theatre profit sharing ratio sliding window. Being more OS heavy also hurts the profit margin. That DOM total would still be considered as a 'flop' number for a Pixar movie pre-pandemic.

 

Pixar is not out of the red zone yet. 

Edited August 19, 2023 by Spidey Freak

[YM!]

18 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

Yeah no, a peak summer Pixar film shouldn't have been opening that terribly in the first place. It's good that Elemental managed to save face but a leggier run is less profitable for the studio with the studio/theatre profit sharing ratio sliding window. Being more OS heavy also hurts the profit margin. That DOM total would still be considered as a 'flop' number for a Pixar movie pre-pandemic.

 

Pixar is not out of the red zone yet. 

The Pixar CFO literally said, they are already at the green range for profits theatrically with a little more left over. Sure, it could be PR-blister, but Morris has the financial records.