D&D vs Air: Race for #2 in the week of Apr 7th-13th

[Sophie]

So this week will mark Mario's second week at #1, since Mario's 2 day total out-grossed D&D's 7 day total. 

 

So who will win #2 for this week? 

 

Deadline has Air with 12.7M and D&D with 13.65M for the 3-day. That's super close, imo, and of course, those numbers aren't final. 

 

In my opinion, as much as I want D&D to get 2nd place, I think that there's at least a 50% chance for Air to catch up in the Mon-Thurs stretch. 

 

I imagine that the weekend actuals will be just about $1M apart. Then on Monday Air will gain $150-200K on D&D, making it look like a close race. Then on Tuesday, it'll gain 500K+ on D&D, making the race seem pretty much over. That's what happened with 80 For Brady vs Knock at the Cabin Door.

[poweranimals]

I don't think you know how weeks work. That being said, I'm guessing Air over D&D because it seems like better counter programming. since both D&D and Mario are adventure based movies.

Edited April 9, 2023 by poweranimals

[Sophie]

5 hours ago, poweranimals said:

I don't think you know how weeks work.

Uh... I'm sorry? Did I make a specific mistake that you want to point out? Or do you just want to be vaguely rude to strangers on the internet? 

 

I imagine you're the one making the mistake. Mario released late last week. Not Thursday night previews, but two full fledged days of last week. It made more in those two days than D&D made in the whole 7 days. So Mario won last week, and we are currently in its second week at #1. 

 

This IS a rare situation. I believe the last time it happened was Spider-Man in 2019. So the mistake is understandable. But no need to act rude about it.

[poweranimals]

3 minutes ago, Sophie said:

Uh... I'm sorry? Did I make a specific mistake that you want to point out? Or do you just want to be vaguely rude to strangers on the internet? 

 

I imagine you're the one making the mistake. Mario released late last week. Not Thursday night previews, but two full fledged days of last week. It made more in those two days than D&D made in the whole 7 days. So Mario won last week, and we are currently in its second week at #1. 

 

This IS a rare situation. I believe the last time it happened was Spider-Man in 2019. So the mistake is understandable. But no need to act rude about it.

I'm not trying to be rude but it's still the same week. This is the weekend. Not the weekbeginning.

Edited April 9, 2023 by poweranimals

[Sophie]

1 minute ago, poweranimals said:

I'm not trying to be rude but it's still the same week. This is the weekend. Not the weekbeginning.

 

Then you don't have much experience browsing weekly box office charts, because the box office week does in fact begin on Friday and end on Thursday. 

 

It would be pretty chaotic and useless to count weeklies as mon-sun or something, considering movies generally release on Friday. 

 

Here are some links to box office mojo and the numbers weekly charts to better familiarize yourself with it. 

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekly/

 

https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/weekly/2023/03/31

 

As you can see, both show Mario beating D&D last week, 58M to 48M

[Asyulus]

D&D 2nd.

[Sophie]

Deadline updated their 3-day numbers to D&D at 14.5 vs Air at 14.46... 

 

Looks like D&D's chances at #2 are doomed. It can't let Air win weekdays at all. 

 

Only positive news is that Deadline predicts D&D will have a stronger Sunday, and seems to say that Friday is the only reason Air is close to D&D. *Maybe* that means Air will be a bit frontloaded this week, and D&D can win the weekdays?? 

 

But generally, unless somebody wants to claim I'm wrong, action/franchise movies tend to be weaker on weekdays while dramas for older audiences tend to be stronger on weekdays. 

 

So imo, we'll see once we get Monday numbers in, we'll be seeing that D&D chances are done for. 

[Sophie]

welp, Air beats D&D 14.5 to 13.9 for the 3-day. 

 

Air beat it D&D on Sunday 3.57 to 3.33. 

 

Probably safe to say there's no hope for D&D to beat Air this week.

[Borobudur]

31 minutes ago, Sophie said:

welp, Air beats D&D 14.5 to 13.9 for the 3-day. 

 

Air beat it D&D on Sunday 3.57 to 3.33. 

 

Probably safe to say there's no hope for D&D to beat Air this week.

But neither DnD or AIR take 2nd place. 

[TigerPaw]

On 4/9/2023 at 8:22 AM, Sophie said:

So this week will mark Mario's second week at #1, since Mario's 2 day total out-grossed D&D's 7 day total. 

 

So who will win #2 for this week? 

 

Deadline has Air with 12.7M and D&D with 13.65M for the 3-day. That's super close, imo, and of course, those numbers aren't final. 

 

In my opinion, as much as I want D&D to get 2nd place, I think that there's at least a 50% chance for Air to catch up in the Mon-Thurs stretch. 

 

I imagine that the weekend actuals will be just about $1M apart. Then on Monday Air will gain $150-200K on D&D, making it look like a close race. Then on Tuesday, it'll gain 500K+ on D&D, making the race seem pretty much over. That's what happened with 80 For Brady vs Knock at the Cabin Door.

You forgot JW4..

[Sophie]

Yeah, it's no longer a race for #2, it's a race to see which will be the highest among films that haven't already won a previous week.

 

On Monday, D&D managed to close the gap from 575K to 529K

 

It's going to need a lot of luck to close that gap the rest of the way in the next three days.

 

If it can't somehow pull off a miraculous Tuesday, then its goose is cooked.

Edited April 12, 2023 by Sophie

[Sophie]

Final numbers are in. 

 

Air beats both John Wick and D&D for #2 this week. 

 

Now I've got my eyes on whether Renfield could underperform to the point that D&D beats it in the coming week. 

Edited April 14, 2023 by Sophie