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AniNate

Best Picture predictions 2024

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Looks like last thread was started at the beginning of the year so think now is a good time to start BSing about next

 

Some possible contenders:

 

ANORA (Sean Baker)

A REAL PAIN (Jesse Eisenberg)

BLITZ (Steve McQueen)

CHALLENGERS (Luca Guadagnino)

CIVIL WAR (Alex Garland)

DUNE PART TWO (Denis Villeneuve)

FURIOSA (George Miller)

GLADIATOR 2 (Ridley Scott)

HIT MAN (Richard Linklater)

HORIZON (Kevin Costner)

IN THE BLINK OF AN EYE (Andrew Stanton)

JOKER: FOLIE A DEUX (Todd Phillips)

KINDS OF KINDNESS (Yorgos Lanthimos)

MEGALOPOLIS (Francis Ford Coppola)

MICKEY 17 (Bong Joon-Ho)

SING SING (Greg Kwedar)

WE LIVE IN TIME (John Crowley)

WICKED PT 1 (Jon M Chu)

 

Edited by AniNate
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There's quite a few "prestige sequels" to previous Best Picture nominees this year, Dune, Gladiator, Furiosa, Joker. Fairly confident Dune gets nominated but the rest I'm not sure, they might go the other way.

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Honestly I'm not super confident in Gladiator 2 given Scott's generally lackluster output recently, but the original didn't really have an extremely enthusiastic critical reception either, and if he does manage to tap in to the same kind of crowd-pleasing epic vein this time I don't think it can be ruled out.

 

Personally pulling for In the Blink of an Eye, but I know how John Carter went down so trying to keep expectations checked this time. Does have the Searchlight label to give it some prestige and Stanton is still perfect when Thomas Newman does his scores.

 

 

Edited by AniNate
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I figure we may as well make this the catch-all category thread until we're further into the year and there's enough material to start separate category threads.

 

Wanted to talk about animation contenders too. I guess they're technically eligible for BP but realistically have no shot, but here are my early picks:

 

  • THE IMAGINARY (Netflix / Studio Ponoc / Yoshiyuki Momose)
  • INSIDE OUT 2 (Disney / Pixar / Kelsey Mann)
  • THE MAGNIFICENT LIFE OF MARCEL PAGNOL (Sony Classics / Sylvain Chomet)
  • PIECE BY PIECE (Focus Features / i am OTHER / Morgan Neville)
  • SIROCCO AND THE KINGDOM OF THE WINDS (GKIDS / Sacrebleu / Benoit Chieux)

 

Others on the radar:

 

  • BLACK KNIGHT (Sony Animation / Genndy Tartakovsky)
  • FIXED (New Line / Genndy Tartakovsky)
  • FLOW (Sacrebleu / Gints Zilbalodis)
  • IN YOU DREAMS (Netflix / Sony Imageworks / Erik Benson & Alex Woo)
  • KUNG FU PANDA 4 (Universal / Dreamworks / Mike Mitchell)
  • THE LEGEND OF OCHI (A24 / Encyclopedia Pictura / Isaiah Saxon) - don't think this is completely animated, but I can see A24 willing it to a nom like Marcel
  • THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE WAR OF THE ROHIRRIM (Warner / Kenji Kamiyama)
  • MEMOIR OF A SNAIL (Adam Elliot)
  • THE MOST PRECIOUS OF CARGOES (StudioCanal / Ex Nihilo / Michel Hazanavicius)
  • ORION AND THE DARK (Netflix / Dreamworks / Sean Charmatz)
  • THE SHRINKING OF TREEHORN (Netflix / Animal Logic / Ron Howard)
  • THAT CHRISTMAS (Netflix / DNEG / Simon Otto) 
  • TRANSFORMERS ONE (Paramount / Hasbro / Josh Cooley)
  • ULTRAMAN RISING (Netflix / ILM / Shannon Tindle)
  • WALLACE AND GROMIT (Netflix / Aardman / Merlin Crossingham & Nick Park)
  • THE WILD ROBOT (Universal / Dreamworks / Chris Sanders)

 

 

 

 

Edited by AniNate
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Lots of potentially interesting big budget plays (Dune, Mickey 17, Joker, Gladiator, Furiosa, Wicked), but man oh man does the midsize and smaller adult slate look devastating this year. 2025 gonna be loaded post strikes. 

Edited by Cmasterclay
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That tier never really solidifies until the VeniTIFF circuit later in the year. There are a few goodies coming out of Sundance. A Real Pain seems pretty awards friendly, possibly A Different Man as well.

 

EDIT: Just noticed that reviews have significantly cooled on A Different Man, so yeah, that's probably not gonna be a factor here

 

 

Edited by AniNate
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There's usually a handful of foreign films that round out the BP 10 and usually rise to prominence on short notice/at the festivals (2022 had All Quiet and Triangle of Sadness, 2023 had Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives, and Zone of Interest)

 

Edited by Bob Train
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I wonder what Searchlight's plans for A Real Pain are. They're clearly staying in the Emma Stone business since she's a producer on that in addition to having Kind of Kindness coming this year with them.

 

And it looks like they'll probably have the Chalamet Bob Dylan biopic on deck for this year too since that's about to begin filming soon (if it hasn't started already).

Edited by filmlover
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She also produced I Saw the TV Glow, having quite a year already. The academy is allergic to horror though so I'll be very surprised if that's in the conversation at year's end.

 

I'm definitely pulling for In the Blink of an Eye to be a home run over a middlebrow biopic about a subject that Todd Haynes did in a much more interesting way 17 years ago.

 

 

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26 minutes ago, AniNate said:

She also produced I Saw the TV Glow, having quite a year already. The academy is allergic to horror though so I'll be very surprised if that's in the conversation at year's end.

And likely receiving a Drama Actress nomination for The Curse at the Emmys in September (the awards show that the strikes are arguably going to take the biggest toll on due to production being down for so much of the season so expect a lot of name check nominations across almost every category from them this year). We are truly living in The Stone Age.

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A Complete Unknown apparently isn't filming until summer, I highly doubt that is ready for this year. PTA is already two weeks into filming but that's apparently for 2025 too, as is the Pitt F1 movie and Safdie/Rock MMA movie and QT's next flick. Basically if they aren't nearly totally done filming I doubt they're coming out this year. Rough year.

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I mean... Steve McQueen? Bong Joon-Ho? Yorgos Lanthimos? Richard Linklater? Francis Ford Coppola? There are plenty of auteur projects coming out this year. Frankly I'd rather PTA and Tarantino not be drawing attention from them. They're kinda boring at this point.

 

 

Edited by AniNate
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On 2/1/2024 at 9:25 PM, AniNate said:

I mean... Steve McQueen? Bong Joon-Ho? Yorgos Lanthimos? Richard Linklater? Francis Ford Coppola? There are plenty of auteur projects coming out this year. Frankly I'd rather PTA and Tarantino not be drawing attention from them. They're kinda boring at this point.

 

 

what's boring about PTA (probably the greatest living american filmmaker next to Scorsese) making a 100m movie with Leo or QT's final film

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2025 looks massively stacked in comparison to 2024. This is a year where the strikes and post pandemic delays are apparent

 

Dune is the only confident nominee yet I don't see it winning with all this talk of an additional third film. I don't think an inconclusive sequel is going to win--needed to be its definitive Return of the King moment

 

PICTURE:

Blitz (APPLE)

Dune 2 (WB)

A Real Pain (SEARCHLIGHT)

Sing Sing (A24)

 

MAYBE:

The Actor (NEON)

Bird (A24)

Conclave (FOCUS)

The Nickel Boys (AMAZON MGM)

The Piano Lesson (NETFLIX)

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1 hour ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

what's boring about PTA (probably the greatest living american filmmaker next to Scorsese) making a 100m movie with Leo or QT's final film

 

It's exactly because they're such obvious frontrunners that they're boring. I prefer a little surprise. Yes, I'll probably get hype and see them when they come out, but when it comes to punditry I'm more interested in trying to prop up the stuff that everyone else isn't already excited about.

 

There's easily ten movies from the list I put up where you can say on paper they have an awards-worthy pedigree, and we're just a month into the year and haven't even gotten to potential unknown Cannes/Venice/TIFF entities. 

 

 

 

 

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