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AniNate

Best Picture predictions 2024

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I mean according to IMDB this is what he has left for the rest of this year. He's absolutely getting nominated for this, unless there's some bullshit academy rule about too much of the score was already composed for the first one or something.

 

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Posted (edited)

Don't underestimate the academy when it comes to bullshit score eligibility decisions, but even if it is eligible I think Eden or Mufasa could potentially be tech awards players. 

 

To be clear I do think Dune 2 will probably be nominated, I just think it's silly to say it's already decided and there's also a lot of score composer credits for movies this year that still aren't public info. Typically a few unknown later festival entries wind up in the category and the academy doesn't always go for the epic blockbuster sound.

 

 

Edited by AniNate
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I was being slightly tongue in cheek, I'm just really high on the score. But I don't see why it wouldn't get nominated and have a very good shot at winning outside the aforementioned possibility of being ineligible (which I don't know if it's a real possibility, just wondering). The movie is going to be a major Oscar player and the first one won best score.

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Dune 2 should i suppose make all the same nominations the first film got. Better reviews and box office will counteract the film's earlier release date. maybe less wins though. If it had stayed in November 2023 I think it would've only won visual effects. it would've lost all the head-to-heads with Oppenheimer.

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I hesitated to openly pin it as one before but based on the SXSW reactions I'm gonna say Civil War is a contender here. I think its apparent "apolitical" tone and focus on journalism makes it friendly enough to middlebrow Oscar voters to make up for whatever squicky Garland imagery might be in it. I just hope it's not too true to life by the time voting comes around.

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A24 doesn't seem to have too much on their plate that stands out as overtly baity on paper this year beyond John Crowley's We Live in Time, which will presumably be a showcase for both Pugh and Garfield based on what little is currently known about it. Ari Aster's mega-star-studded Eddington just began filming and will reportedly conclude in May but assume that will be saved for next year. Same with Spike Lee's latest starring Denzel that is still casting.

 

Civil War is probably at most headed for the same nominations Ex Machina received at most (if it connects) since none of his movies have been labeled Actor Showcases to date, though it would be nice if Dunst was in the conversation again after that recent interview where she said she hasn't received much in the way of good offers since her Power of the Dog Oscar nomination made headlines.

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On 3/18/2024 at 6:42 PM, AniNate said:

I hesitated to openly pin it as one before but based on the SXSW reactions I'm gonna say Civil War is a contender here. I think its apparent "apolitical" tone and focus on journalism makes it friendly enough to middlebrow Oscar voters to make up for whatever squicky Garland imagery might be in it. I just hope it's not too true to life by the time voting comes around.

 

Grace Randolph (among other things, she's a Critics Choice Awards voter) is going off about Civil War on Twitter, it's hilarious. She hated Oppenheimer and found Poor Things too morally offensive to review, so maybe Civil War is a serious Best Picture contender... :D

Edited by BoxOfficeFangrl
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On 3/19/2024 at 2:26 AM, filmlover said:

A24 doesn't seem to have too much on their plate that stands out as overtly baity on paper this year beyond John Crowley's We Live in Time, which will presumably be a showcase for both Pugh and Garfield based on what little is currently known about it. Ari Aster's mega-star-studded Eddington just began filming and will reportedly conclude in May but assume that will be saved for next year. Same with Spike Lee's latest starring Denzel that is still casting.

 

Civil War is probably at most headed for the same nominations Ex Machina received at most (if it connects) since none of his movies have been labeled Actor Showcases to date, though it would be nice if Dunst was in the conversation again after that recent interview where she said she hasn't received much in the way of good offers since her Power of the Dog Oscar nomination made headlines.

i saw the trailer for Sing Sing the other day and it looked really good and awards friendly and it does seem to be quite acclaimed. would look out for it

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4 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

i saw the trailer for Sing Sing the other day and it looked really good and awards friendly and it does seem to be quite acclaimed. would look out for it

Depends on if it can survive a summer release until the end of the year but I'm rooting for it! Back-to-Back Oscar Nominee Colman Domingo would be a gift to us all.

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2 hours ago, filmlover said:

Oscars: 2025 Ceremony Date Set, Other Key Dates Announced (hollywoodreporter.com)

 

Sunday, March 2

Starting at 7 again

 

Nominations to be announced on a Friday this year (January 17).

They're moving ahead of the daylight savings change, which historically tanks live TV ratings for the week.

 

Announcing on Friday is interesting. I always wonder if AMPAS will ever do a nomination TV special like the Grammys.

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1 hour ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

Announcing on Friday is interesting. I always wonder if AMPAS will ever do a nomination TV special like the Grammys.

Or they have a crystal ball showing people not being happy with the nominations this (really strike-impacted) year and want to make the nominations the Bad News Friday dump heading off into the long weekend (cause that's the Friday of MLK Weekend).

 

Pondering GIFs - Find & Share on GIPHY

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5 hours ago, filmlover said:

Or they have a crystal ball showing people not being happy with the nominations this (really strike-impacted) year and want to make the nominations the Bad News Friday dump heading off into the long weekend (cause that's the Friday of MLK Weekend).

 

Pondering GIFs - Find & Share on GIPHY

I think announcing on Monday or Tuesday was traditionally meant to give studios a few days to advertise the expanded theatrical release of newly-minted Best Picture nominees, to remind people to go out and watch them that weekend. Now that most nominees are available for home viewing by the time nominations are out anyway, announcing on Friday morning cuts out the lag time. People will hear about what's nominated throughout Friday and just decide to watch it later that night or in the next day or two. There's less chance for some other pop culture thing coming up between Tuesday and Friday to be a distraction from the Oscar nominations.

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