Weekday Numbers [Jun 17-20, 2024] | Thursday | 19.63M INSIDE OUT II | 2.85M BAD BOYS: RIDE OR DIE

[JonathanMB]

Outstanding Tuesday for Inside Out 2, and I'm sure today will also be really strong. That said, I fully expect like a 40%+ drop on Thursday that freaks everyone out a bit, heh. I think whoever said that today being a holiday might take some business from this coming weekend was right. That said, it's an undeniable juggernaut at this point, so it's all just about what degree of juggernaut it is. 

 

Regarding the Oscars, Toy Story 3 and 4 remain the only sequels to win the Animated Feature category, so I'm skeptical of IO2 managing to win when its reviews are considerably less passionate than the first movie. TS3 was a Best Picture nominee so that was an easy lock, and TS4 had absurdly weak competition. Otherwise, I think the Academy prefers to award something a little fresher if they have the option. Incredibles 2 had great reviews (even better than IO2) and was the biggest animated movie ever in America, but it ended up losing to Into the Spider-Verse, which was a fresher and more exciting option. Then five years later Across the Spider-Verse got equally strong reviews, only to lose to Boy and the Heron, a movie that made a lot less money and was not as audience friendly, but was a more prestigious choice. 

 

As for if Wild Robot can beat it, it's worth noting that the Toronto International Film Festival actually announced their first round of world premieres at the fest this September, and included Wild Robot in there. That's a pretty bold move that indicates Universal and DreamWorks want to position it as prestige play. 

[Migs20242]

2 minutes ago, JonathanMB said:

Outstanding Tuesday for Inside Out 2, and I'm sure today will also be really strong. That said, I fully expect like a 40%+ drop on Thursday that freaks everyone out a bit, heh. I think whoever said that today being a holiday might take some business from this coming weekend was right. That said, it's an undeniable juggernaut at this point, so it's all just about what degree of juggernaut it is. 

 

Regarding the Oscars, Toy Story 3 and 4 remain the only sequels to win the Animated Feature category, so I'm skeptical of IO2 managing to win when its reviews are considerably less passionate than the first movie. TS3 was a Best Picture nominee so that was an easy lock, and TS4 had absurdly weak competition. Otherwise, I think the Academy prefers to award something a little fresher if they have the option. Incredibles 2 had great reviews (even better than IO2) and was the biggest animated movie ever in America, but it ended up losing to Into the Spider-Verse, which was a fresher and more exciting option. Then five years later Across the Spider-Verse got equally strong reviews, only to lose to Boy and the Heron, a movie that made a lot less money and was not as audience friendly, but was a more prestigious choice. 

 

As for if Wild Robot can beat it, it's worth noting that the Toronto International Film Festival actually announced their first round of world premieres at the fest this September, and included Wild Robot in there. That's a pretty bold move that indicates Universal and DreamWorks want to position it as prestige play. 

Note: Chris Sanders is 0/3 in Best Animated Feature. He could go 0/4 at 2025 Oscars. DreamWorks Oscars curse is still on effect.

[AniNate]

To be fair it's not super uncommon for Uni to premiere their movies at TIFF, even ones that eventually go on to be perceived as "mid". It's a much more forgiving environment than Cannes. I just have a feeling Chris Sanders is cooking there and everyone at Dreamworks seems really high on it.

 

Wasn't really intending to knock on IO2's chances so much as point out that it does have a lot of competition. People should be happy about that from a general industry health perspective.

[Jake Gittes]

It's fucking June.

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, Jake Gittes said:

It's fucking June.

yeah but Best Animated Feature is an easy category to predict.

[JonathanMB]

2 minutes ago, Migs20242 said:

Note: Chris Sanders is 0/3 in Best Animated Feature. He could go 0/4 at 2025 Oscars. DreamWorks Oscars curse is still on effect.

 

Oscar voters don't know or care who directs animated films unless it's a legend like Miyazaki, so I don't think that matters much. DreamWorks only having one win is probably a bigger obstacle, since post-Shrek (their one win) they gained a reputation of being a lazy studio in comparison to Pixar at the time and never really had a film with win-worthy acclaim outside of How to Train Your Dragon, which I do think would have won in any other year where it wasn't competing against a Best Picture nominee. But Pixar and Disney's reputation has been fading this decade, so I think they're vulnerable to an upset now, so long as Wild Robot can score in the 80s on Metacritic.

[Migs20242]

1 minute ago, JonathanMB said:

 

Oscar voters don't know or care who directs animated films unless it's a legend like Miyazaki, so I don't think that matters much. DreamWorks only having one win is probably a bigger obstacle, since post-Shrek (their one win) they gained a reputation of being a lazy studio in comparison to Pixar at the time and never really had a film with win-worthy acclaim outside of How to Train Your Dragon, which I do think would have won in any other year where it wasn't competing against a Best Picture nominee. But Pixar and Disney's reputation has been fading this decade, so I think they're vulnerable to an upset now, so long as Wild Robot can score in the 80s on Metacritic.

 

[AniNate]

Cannes/Annecy did turn out enough indies with great reviews to make an educated guess on what the nominees are now, the main question is what the US distribution/campaign plans are and if some will be held into next year. 

[Migs20242]

8 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Cannes/Annecy did turn out enough indies with great reviews to make an educated guess on what the nominees are now, the main question is what the US distribution/campaign plans are and if some will be held into next year. 

The Wild Robot could be a box office flop or surprise us.

[Migs20242]

I feel like The Wild Robot might be this year’s The Good Dinosaur.

[cannastop]

13 minutes ago, Migs20242 said:

 

watched that video. Nothing in it is relevant to this discussion.

[cannastop]

2 minutes ago, Migs20242 said:

I feel like The Wild Robot might be this year’s The Good Dinosaur.

[kayumanggi]

 

[MightyDargon]

33 minutes ago, cannastop said:

yeah but Best Animated Feature is an easy category to predict.

No, it's not. Not anymore.

[cannastop]

Just now, MightyDargon said:

No, it's not. Not anymore.

yes it is. We know that the Academy isn't going with an indie or foreign animation because they never have, except for Hayao Miyazaki. That leaves major studio animation from the US, of which there are only so many movies.

 

This might be a difficult year to predict nominees but I think we can reasonably guess who the winner will be.

[Torontofan]

500 million locked, lets see 600 million 

[YM!]

52 minutes ago, Migs20242 said:

Note: Chris Sanders is 0/3 in Best Animated Feature. He could go 0/4 at 2025 Oscars. DreamWorks Oscars curse is still on effect.

I don’t think there’s a curse perse but a matter of circumstance. Like it’s not Stitch’s fault they went up against Spirited Away. 

[YM!]

46 minutes ago, JonathanMB said:

 

Oscar voters don't know or care who directs animated films unless it's a legend like Miyazaki, so I don't think that matters much. DreamWorks only having one win is probably a bigger obstacle, since post-Shrek (their one win) they gained a reputation of being a lazy studio in comparison to Pixar at the time and never really had a film with win-worthy acclaim outside of How to Train Your Dragon, which I do think would have won in any other year where it wasn't competing against a Best Picture nominee. But Pixar and Disney's reputation has been fading this decade, so I think they're vulnerable to an upset now, so long as Wild Robot can score in the 80s on Metacritic.

Puss 2 could’ve been one as I imagine it and Turning Red were close, if not for Pinocchio.

[kayumanggi]

 

 

[kayumanggi]