Weekday Numbers [Jun 17-20, 2024] | Thursday | 19.63M INSIDE OUT II | 2.85M BAD BOYS: RIDE OR DIE

[Torontofan]

2 minutes ago, Eric is Anxious said:

I mean I feel the real reason for this demographic shift is just that white folks are way more into streaming and at home watching compared to most demographics. Nielsen reported back in 2021 that roughly 60% of the total streaming is from Caucasians. 58% of that crowd is 35 and older too. By contrast, according to the MPA, in 2021, Caucasians made up 54% of viewership. And over the years, things have skewed less and less white. If you want pre-COVID and post-COVID comparisons, John Wick 3 had 42% Caucasian viewership for its opening weekend, while Wick 4 had just 32%. Creed 2 had 38% white viewers, then Creed 3 was down to 23%. Bad Boys 3 was 30%, while Bad Boys 4 was a whopping 18%.

 

Like yeah, there have been changes in the population in that time, but streaming is considered a huge culprit as to why moviegoing is down across the board, and there's clear evidence that 35+ audiences are going way less. Those age demos are generally more white, and those audiences, especially the white ones, have more disposable income to spend more on SVOD services. Like I don't think it's hard to see a scenario where the olds just bought 4K TVs during the pandemic and are happily streaming Netflix stuff. That's why, Top Gun aside, every movie that has been aimed at old white guys has opened around the 50s/low 60s (Bond, Indy, Mission: Impossible). That's why the usual Oscar contenders that skewed towards seniors aren't making the money they used to and the big arthouse breakouts have been stuff like Poor Things or Asteroid City or Everything Everywhere.

 

So yeah. That's why the shift happened IMO.

 

https://nscreenmedia.com/streaming-user-demographics-top-4-services/

https://www.motionpictures.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/MPA-2021-THEME-Report-FINAL.pdf

 

also there is no rush to see a lot of those films when you can watch them in 1-2 months on a nice 70 inch flatscreen at home

[AnthonyJPHer]

7 minutes ago, Flip said:

This is how I’m looking at the possible results and what the weekend should be based off each one 

20m+: Crazy, 2nd weekend near Barbie (93m)
19-20m: 2nd weekend above 85m
18-19m: Expected (80-85m weekend)

17-18m: 2nd weekend a bit ahead of Dory, holiday took some business

Below 17m: disappointing, 2nd weekend below Dory

what would a 25m Thursday indicate?

[Insomnia]

8 minutes ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

what would a 25m Thursday indicate?

Well over a $100M 2nd weekend. Obviously it won't happen.

[AnthonyJPHer]

3 minutes ago, Insomnia said:

Well over a $100M 2nd weekend. Obviously it won't happen.

Never say never when it comes to this movie. I’m not saying it’s locked or anything but it’d be possible 

[Insomnia]

2 minutes ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

Never say never when it comes to this movie. I’m not saying it’s locked or anything but it’d be possible 

That's true, but imma go ahead and take a very educated guess what it's not. 🤣

 

We'll see tomorrow though.

[AniNate]

Juneteenth probably is skewing things, before Tuesday it was following Dory's pattern pretty closely

[ChipDerby]

It's going to make $100 mil in it's second weekend.

[Sindreee]

2 hours ago, Torontofan said:

any time disney has bad a big movie and then try to cash in on cheap looking tv shows, all they do is devalue the brand. 

Always found this opinion to be fascinating. Disney has more or less done this forever, the direct to DVD boom in the 90’s when all their greatest hits got sequels. 
 

And their recent money making live action remakes have more or less proved that their brand wasn’t ruined because of it, even though most of the direct to dvd movies were horrible.

 

Just make good quality shows and it won’t diminish anything from the brand imo.

[Joyous Legion]

30 minutes ago, Sindreee said:

Always found this opinion to be fascinating. Disney has more or less done this forever, the direct to DVD boom in the 90’s when all their greatest hits got sequels. 
 

And their recent money making live action remakes have more or less proved that their brand wasn’t ruined because of it, even though most of the direct to dvd movies were horrible.

 

Just make good quality shows and it won’t diminish anything from the brand imo.

 

In order to really hurt a brand, sowmthign has to be:

clearly bad

widely watched by adults

clearly canonical  

 

For animated property tie-in/spinoff stuff it’s not so easy to hit both of the first two at once and even if you do can inject some doubt about 3 as needed

[stripe]

4 hours ago, Flip said:

This is how I’m looking at the possible results and what the weekend should be based off each one 

20m+: Crazy, 2nd weekend near Barbie (93m)
19-20m: 2nd weekend above 85m
18-19m: Expected (80-85m weekend)

17-18m: 2nd weekend a bit ahead of Dory, holiday took some business

Below 17m: disappointing, 2nd weekend below Dory

Put me in for first scenario. IO2 2nd weekend over IO opening weekend.

[Joyous Legion]

Getting some very overheated projections because of the midweek holiday imo. Coming in at like 79 would be a good hold!

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Will a show about "Dream Productions" even if its terrible make people suddenly decide Inside Out 3 is not worth their time? Of course not same reason why if Pixar decides to do a proper sequel to Monsters Inc. how people perceived Monsters Uni will have way more of an impact than how people felt "Monsters at Work" was on Disney+.

[AniNate]

"brand devaluation" is kind of a myth anyway, for any IP. From a studio's perspective they'll never know what the limit is unless they reach it, and even then all they need to do is take a break from it for a little while and audiences will feel nostalgic for it again.

[toutvabien]

Insane numbers for IO2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes will cross $160m today. Challengers is less than 50k away from crossing $50m by the way.

[Kon]

7 hours ago, Eric is Anxious said:

Like yeah, there have been changes in the population in that time, but streaming is considered a huge culprit as to why moviegoing is down across the board, and there's clear evidence that 35+ audiences are going way less. Those age demos are generally more white, and those audiences, especially the white ones, have more disposable income to spend more on SVOD services. Like I don't think it's hard to see a scenario where the olds just bought 4K TVs during the pandemic and are happily streaming Netflix stuff. That's why, Top Gun aside, every movie that has been aimed at old white guys has opened around the 50s/low 60s (Bond, Indy, Mission: Impossible). That's why the usual Oscar contenders that skewed towards seniors aren't making the money they used to and the big arthouse breakouts have been stuff like Poor Things or Asteroid City or Everything Everywhere.

 

Well, Oppenheimer was also big on older white men.

 

Honestly, I really think the lack of interest in movies is the real reason why old white men aren't coming. Maybe streaming makes more difficult to call their attention, but they will come when something really interest them.

[Kon]

 

8 hours ago, AniNate said:

Latin auds turning out for this definitely bodes well for Elio next year

 

Well, it seems animation is popular for Latino audience.

 

Is there another reason why Elio could be popular between Latino audience?

Edited June 20 by Kon

[stripe]

3 hours ago, Legion Again said:

Getting some very overheated projections because of the midweek holiday imo. Coming in at like 79 would be a good hold!

It would be a good hold, of course. In fact, anything under 50% drop is very very good, but why not dream with a 40-45% drop?
The movie is well loved and already has great WOM. 

it has a strong interest from a very diverse audience

it faces zero competition
and we are headed into the healthiest BO days of Summer

[Migs20242]

 

[Joyous Legion]

17 minutes ago, stripe said:

It would be a good hold, of course. In fact, anything under 50% drop is very very good, but why not dream with a 40-45% drop?
The movie is well loved and already has great WOM. 

it has a strong interest from a very diverse audience

it faces zero competition
and we are headed into the healthiest BO days of Summer

79 would be good relative to other June Pixar sequels with great WOM. There is nothing in particular in first 6 days of data that points to higher be it in daily behavior or reception metrics. I think there’s room to go a bit higher based on vibes but some of the numbers being thrown around are kind of detached from reality and seem likely to bring nothing bit disappointment 🤷‍♂️ 

[Migs20242]

26 minutes ago, stripe said:

It would be a good hold, of course. In fact, anything under 50% drop is very very good, but why not dream with a 40-45% drop?
The movie is well loved and already has great WOM. 

it has a strong interest from a very diverse audience

it faces zero competition
and we are headed into the healthiest BO days of Summer

It will depend on what Thursday US box office will be for IO2.

 

Leaning towards low-mid 20M today - 20-24 million for IO2