Weekend Thread (6/21-23)

[ChipDerby]

Pencil me in for $100 mil for IO2 and $12+ mil for Bikeriders 

[Migs20242]

Sticking with 95-105 million for Inside Out 2 2nd weekend.

[Bob Train]

3 hours ago, John Marston said:

The BO performances of this and Incredibles 2 make me see the Toy Story sequels grosses a little bit disappointing . 

It's possible that there being 3 separate Toy Story sequels saturated the demand, unlike IO2 and Incredibles 2, which were both released after many years, increasing nostalgia.

[AniNate]

Toy Story has never had the kind of multicultural pull that other Pixar franchises have. It is for lack of a better way to put it much more directly targeted at nostalgic white suburbanites. That was always sorta how Lasseter rolled as a director.

[AnthonyJPHer]

I honestly think the lack of huge releases like this since Dune Part Two made the need for a big family friendly blockbuster even more than it would have been before. think about it. There really hasn’t been a film like this in a WHILE. That pent up demand for a good family film (aka, not Garfield) must have built since Kung Fu Panda 4. 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Which makes how Toy Story 5 perform an interesting question (or watch it just gross the same as 3 & 4). But in all seriousness it felt like they got away with it in Toy Story 4 by making one more. Incredibles 3 would be a safer bet but they're probably reluctant to make it without Brad Bird. 

[Insomnia]

9 minutes ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

I honestly think the lack of huge releases like this since Dune Part Two made the need for a big family friendly blockbuster even more than it would have been before. think about it. There really hasn’t been a film like this in a WHILE. That pent up demand for a good family film (aka, not Garfield) must have built since Kung Fu Panda 4. 

And even Dune Part 2, while very successful for what it is, wasn't a huge blockbuster. This was 11 months in the making. It's been a loooong stretch since Barbenheimer last July.

[AnthonyJPHer]

4 minutes ago, Insomnia said:

And even Dune Part 2, while very successful for what it is, wasn't a huge blockbuster. This was 11 months in the making. It's been a loooong stretch since Barbenheimer last July.

Barbie was in a league of its own. But if I’m being honest I was a little disappointed it didn’t do 650m. Its legs were strong but also underwhelming at the same time of that makes sense?

[Bob Train]

Can IO2 become first animated movie to do $100m second weekend? For all movies, last to do it was Endgame (NWH would've done it if not for Omicron surge during second week).

 

Also, it's funny how post-COVID second weekend record keeps slowly increasing. 

NWH 84.5

TGM 90

Mario 92.3

Barbie 93

IO2 95+

[Insomnia]

6 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Can IO2 become first animated movie to do $100m second weekend? For all movies, last to do it was Endgame (NWH would've done it if not for Omicron surge during second week).

 

Also, it's funny how post-COVID second weekend record keeps slowly increasing. 

NWH 84.5

TGM 90

Mario 92.3

Barbie 93

IO2 95+

Yeah I've noticed how post covid has been quite kind to 2nd/3rd/4th weekend etc and legs in general. Lots of big post-OW numbers as the rush for movies has gone down. There are a lot of factors at play but one I suspect might have to do with a lot of theatres closing during/after covid. Just look at the theatre counts post covid. Not as many of the mega 4000++ openers as there were before. 

[Potiki]

30 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Toy Story has never had the kind of multicultural pull that other Pixar franchises have. It is for lack of a better way to put it much more directly targeted at nostalgic white suburbanites. That was always sorta how Lasseter rolled as a director.

Toy Story 3 is still the largest OS grosser of any Pixar film and that was in 2010, I would say it is pretty evidently appealing to multiple cultures. 

[titanic2187]

1 hour ago, Mojoguy said:

Yeah, its tracking so similar to Barbie. I do see them ending around the same DOM for now.

Yeah until the pattern break, 625m is my target since both are having similar level of WOM. And unlike Barbie, IO2 needs to suffer bigger impact of losing PLF. 

[Insomnia]

45 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Toy Story has never had the kind of multicultural pull that other Pixar franchises have. It is for lack of a better way to put it much more directly targeted at nostalgic white suburbanites. That was always sorta how Lasseter rolled as a director.

I find the idea that anyone other than a white person can't relate to...Toy Story...odd. I think nowadays we put people into neat little boxes too much. Like I can't imagine this is a race thing. I just think Pixar as a brand has grown among more and more demos as we go along.

[AniNate]

Maybe it's perceived abroad differently but that seems to be what holds it back within the domestic context. 

[AnthonyJPHer]

1 minute ago, titanic2187 said:

Yeah until the pattern break, 625m is my target since both are having similar level of WOM. And unlike Barbie, IO2 needs to suffer bigger impact of losing PLF. 

 

From what I’ve seen it’s not as PLF heavy as something like Dune: Part Two, which could mean loss of PLFs isn’t as big of a blow. Plus I think theaters could split PLFs with A Quiet Place: Day One. It’s strange because I know new product always wins in terms of PLFs and there are contracts in place for it, but theaters must have to wonder if it’s worth losing premium showings of a massive blockbuster to AQP: DO. 
 

Is it losing all PLFs this weekend or will they lose them for Despicable Me 4?

[AniNate]

4 minutes ago, Insomnia said:

I find the idea that anyone other than a white person can't relate to...Toy Story...odd. I think nowadays we put people into neat little boxes too much. Like I can't imagine this is a race thing. I just think Pixar as a brand has grown among more and more demos as we go along.

 

 

Maybe if TS5 does these kinds of inside out numbers that will be some confirmation. But hard for me to completely buy it as simple brand expansion when the last Toy story installment contracted in domestic admissions from TS3.

[titanic2187]

12 minutes ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

 

From what I’ve seen it’s not as PLF heavy as something like Dune: Part Two, which could mean loss of PLFs isn’t as big of a blow. Plus I think theaters could split PLFs with A Quiet Place: Day One. It’s strange because I know new product always wins in terms of PLFs and there are contracts in place for it, but theaters must have to wonder if it’s worth losing premium showings of a massive blockbuster to AQP: DO. 
 

Is it losing all PLFs this weekend or will they lose them for Despicable Me 4?

43% or 7% in imax isn’t much lower than other 100m opener. So IO2 has to go through the lost of PLF screen just like every other major movie. 

 

Updated PLFs and Imax drove 43% of business with another 14% from 3D.

[Insomnia]

1 minute ago, AniNate said:

 

 

Maybe if TS5 does these kinds of inside out numbers that will be some confirmation. But hard for me to completely buy it as simple brand expansion when the last Toy story installment contracted in domestic admissions from TS3.

Perhaps, but I suspect that's more a function of it being the 4th sequel. Pixar sequels are always going to do well, but even for them 4+ might be pushing it. I'm willing to be that Incredibles 3 admits will be lower than 2 as well. Maybe not though. Maybe there's room for a huge 3rd installment, just like Toy Story 2 -> Toy Story 3.

[Bob Train]

25 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Yeah until the pattern break, 625m is my target since both are having similar level of WOM. And unlike Barbie, IO2 needs to suffer bigger impact of losing PLF. 

Barbie isn't a PG animation like IO2, IO2 legs should be compared to other kids movies, not Barbie.

 

Also Barbie ran out space in the first week, which pushed business into second and third weeks. After that, it had just okay holds. IO2 didn't have to share screens with an Oppenheimer-sized opening in it's first week, which makes the sub-40% drop even more crazy.

[Agafin]

5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Even Incredibles 2 OS run was not spectacular. It was just OK. But domestic was spectacular. Crushing OW record for animation and finishing above 600m domestic which is still the record( at least until Inside Out 2 takes the record). OS barely did more than domestic and I thought it will blow up big in Asia which it did not. 

I honestly think OS for Inside Out 2 will not be much higher than domestic. And that's not due to a low OS (IO2 might just become the highest grossing Pixar movie overseas) but because DOM just seems to be so huge (+ the very strong dollar), a little bit of a Force Awakens situation. Something like $600m-$625m DOM + $700m-$750m OS is what I'm expecting.