HummingLemon496 Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 1 minute ago, WorkingonaName said: Joker, then Michael. Venom will flop hard. Budget will probably be $100M-ish, do you think it's going sub-$250M WW or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Train Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 V3NOM hype feels low, Venom 2 was assisted by NWH hype and carnage, this one doesn't have any draw that big. 70m OW feels more realistic and maybe 170-180m total. If Sony was smart they would retcon Venom in the TASM-verse and have Venom fight Andrew in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMC Theaters Enjoyer Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 (edited) 1 hour ago, Bob Train said: Great opening. When will the next 100m+ opener be? Michael Jackson. I can get Joker but I’m getting the sense it’ll cut short of it. Edited September 7 by AMC Theaters Enjoyer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingonaName Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 Just now, HummingLemon496 said: Budget will probably be $100M-ish, do you think it's going sub-$250M WW or something? Probably, Flash/Marvels numbers seem right to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HummingLemon496 Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 (edited) 3 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said: Probably, Flash/Marvels numbers seem right to me. LMAO what. Venom 2 made $506M without China during the pandemic, which is only a 13% dip from Venom 1's $585M WW-China gross. It made more than any non-Spider-Man MCU movie in 2021 Edited September 7 by HummingLemon496 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Selma Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 What about Moana 2 it isnt a 100m opener ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vafrow Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 1 minute ago, Selma said: What about Moana 2 it isnt a 100m opener ? Thanksgiving Wednesday debut puts it at a big disadvantage, but it shouldn't be counted outm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMC Theaters Enjoyer Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 Wait I forgot about Moana. NVM that’ll probably be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingonaName Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 4 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said: LMAO what. Venom 2 made $506M without China during the pandemic, which is only a 13% dip from Venom 1's $585M WW-China gross. It made more than any non-Spider-Man MCU movie in 2021 No NWH hype + superhero fatigue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 yeha Venom is going down. Don’t know where these $100m predictions are coming from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 (edited) I feel Venom 3 has a lot going for it mainly because the GA just likes the character as Quorum scores and trailer views are pretty solid for it and if Joker doesn’t stick the landing with the GA which some reviews seem to hint at, it could benefit from it. Also has an easy runway until Gladiator II and is the first PG-13 action since Twisters. Not on the 100m train and more like 90/240 for it but wouldn’t be surprised if it happened. Edited September 7 by YM! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HummingLemon496 Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 (edited) 14 minutes ago, Bob Train said: V3NOM hype feels low, Venom 2 was assisted by NWH hype and carnage, this one doesn't have any draw that big. 70m OW feels more realistic and maybe 170-180m total. If Sony was smart they would retcon Venom in the TASM-verse and have Venom fight Andrew in this one. Venom 2 was released during the pandemic. It opened higher than other pandemic movies like Black Widow/Shang-Chi/Eternals, and Venom 3 does have a hook with this symbiote invasion/final chapter stuff. Let me past this comment from Relevation: Honestly IN, we’ve clearly seen with Dune and GxK (and to a lesser extent AQPD1) that COVID really was depressing a lot of the bigger 2021 breakouts’ OW potential as demonstrated by the massive sequel increases we’ve been seeing this year even without significant new value adds. I’m not saying Venom 3 can outright pull a Dune or GxK but even just adjusting for inflation for Let There Be Carnage, you’d get $104.5M. So if that’s what Venom can do despite being depressed by COVID, I don’t see why The Last Dance would do so much worse relative to market strength as to miss $100M. I’m saying $105M for now Edited September 7 by HummingLemon496 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ringedmortality Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 21 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said: I can fix her You wouldn't have liked her, she wasnt attractive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 (edited) Next 100m opener is pretty much locked to be Joker 2. Then a good chance for Michael, Jan-Apr doesn’t have any obvious 100m+ OW hitters but a lot of solid mid-range hits (of the non-Michael movies, Captain America has the best chance and even then I think it performs more like Shang-Chi) as the Minecraft reception kinda tanked hopes. Venom 3 and Gladiator II could do it if everything went right, the holidays could dilute the family animation in Moana, Sonic and Mufasa making 100m 3 day OW unlikely (barring Moana 2 absolutely pulls an IO2 which I’m not betting on), and whilst Wicked has good views and buzz I’m not sure if it has the juice for 100m OW. Edited September 7 by YM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyGossamer Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 Joker, Venom, Moana, Mufasa could all still do 100M+ OW DOM in 2024, no? Not saying all are locked but all could potentially open over 100M DOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HummingLemon496 Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 When are we going to reach 20 $600M+ DOM movies? We currently have 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ringedmortality Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 1 minute ago, JohnnyGossamer said: Joker, Venom, Moana, Mufasa could all still do 100M+ OW DOM in 2024, no? Not saying all are locked but all could potentially open over 100M DOM. I feel like Mufasa is a no, even if it does decently well it'll probably be more of a slowburn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyJPHer Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 6 minutes ago, YM! said: Next 100m opener is pretty much locked to be Joker 2. Then a good chance for Michael, Jan-Apr doesn’t have any obvious 100m+ OW hitters but a lot of solid mid-range hits (of the non-Michael movies, Captain America has the best chance and even then I think it performs more like Shang-Chi) as the Minecraft reception kinda tanked hopes. Venom 3 and Gladiator II could do it if everything went right, the holidays could dilute the family animation in Moana, Sonic and Mufasa making 100m 3 day OW unlikely (barring Moana 2 absolutely pulls an IO2 which I’m not betting on), and whilst Wicked has good views and buzz I’m not sure if it has the juice for 100m OW. Moana could still hit 100m for the 3-day easily tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 (edited) 1 hour ago, Bob Train said: Great opening. When will the next 100m+ opener be? This is actually a pretty interesting question right now. Here’s how I feel about 100M chances this year: Joker 2 2/3 Venom 50% Moana 2 70% Treating those as independent, next 100M chances: Joker 40/60 Venom 10/60 Moana 7/60 2025 3/60 Edited September 7 by Cooper Legion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HummingLemon496 Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 Moana 2 could get close to $150M for the 3-day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
