Weekend Thread | October 11 - 13

[Eric the Clown]

 

[Eric the Clown]

 

Alright...come on now. Joker's coming any second...

[Eric the Clown]

17 minutes ago, WebSurfer said:

 

Fantastic Sunday. I'm hoping we can get to 100M by the end of next weekend.

[AniNate]

TWR had a much better third weekend hold than Cloudy, Hotel, and Elemental.

 

Through three weekends:

 

Hotel Transylvania    102.1
Elemental    89.6
Puss The Last Wish (I can dream) 88.1
The Wild Robot    84.3
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs    81.5

 

Edited Monday at 07:34 PM by AniNate

[Paul]

The substance has been holding nicey these past 2 week-ends despite losing lots of screens, wonder if it's trending on Tik Tok or something

[Noctis]

Spectacular hold for TWR. The only thing that matters, to be honest. 

 

 

[wattage]

The Wild Robot number! I love it. 

 

Joker actuals are at 7 mill. I'll believe them for now. If Monday is suspiciously low for a holiday then that's gonna raise an eyebrow but for now I'll take it as the luck of the draw on a semi 4 day. 

[wattage]

33 minutes ago, Paul said:

The substance has been holding nicey these past 2 week-ends despite losing lots of screens, wonder if it's trending on Tik Tok or something

It's been pretty viral since the first week of release. It's just the theaters that kept it have maintained good business and just the continued WOM. I'm really happy it's doing well. 

[Paul]

16 minutes ago, wattage said:

It's been pretty viral since the first week of release. It's just the theaters that kept it have maintained good business and just the continued WOM. I'm really happy it's doing well. 

yes me too. Pretty rare that movies opening with below 2k/screen have such good multipliers. Could bode well for a Demi Moore nom.

[AniNate]

It's well established at this point that PVOD does not adversely impact legs, but I do find it interesting how movies often seem to actually have some of their best box office holds after the PVOD release. Is it just weird coincidence or might PVOD actually be some kind of advertising boost?

[efialtes76]

TWD willl be number 1 today.

[ThomasNicole]

2 hours ago, Paul said:

The substance has been holding nicey these past 2 week-ends despite losing lots of screens, wonder if it's trending on Tik Tok or something

Yes, i think is on PVOD already, my timeline are posting about it nonstop for the last 2 days, with good quality videos and all.

 

There’s a bunch of countries to release it on theaters yet, including France. I’m hoping for 40M.

[Eric the Clown]

1 hour ago, AniNate said:

It's well established at this point that PVOD does not adversely impact legs, but I do find it interesting how movies often seem to actually have some of their best box office holds after the PVOD release. Is it just weird coincidence or might PVOD actually be some kind of advertising boost?

A good chunk of my Twitter feed consists of animation nerds and furries, and they didn't really care about Puss in Boots until it came out on PVOD. Then, high-quality clips and memes appeared everywhere and people didn't shut up about it for months on end. Don't know if this kind of early launch helps every movie, but it's well-established by now that it doesn't hurt them.

[Eric the Clown]

https://deadline.com/2024/10/terrifier-3-box-office-opening-1236115550/
 

Quote

Laser-sharp demographic marketing and a theatrical release date over the Indigenous Peoples holiday is driving Cineverse’s unrated slasher porn Terrifier 3to a $20M-$21M four-day take after overperforming in its opening weekend. 
 

Today is shaping up to be between $2M-$2.5M per sources. Close to half of all K-12 schools are off today according to Comscore, in addition to 21% colleges on break for the holiday.

 

[Cooper Legion]

16 hours ago, AniNate said:

Upon further review actually, getting to $300m seems like it will be tough. I didn't really think the math out much with that first post but it would need 25% weekly drops the rest of the way to get there. Definitely don't think it's doing that against the upcoming competition and will probably lose some natural interest post-Halloween too. Probably gonna tap out around $290m.

Eh? Only needs 30.5% drops. Maybe like 32% after accounting for inflated mon 

[AniNate]

Maybe 30% if a holiday bump gets it to around a $10mil total for this week, but even maintaining those kinds of holds seems unlikely

[M37]

In the Fall, it’s an uphill battle for any film to gross more than 2x of any given week for the rest of the run: the depressed weekdays and lack of holidays don’t leave much opportunity, so have to start stringing together sub-30% drops to leg out much higher. The only film over last two weekends which held better than -32% Sat/Sat was Substance

 

For Wild Robot, that puts the target at ~$120M finish (70 + 25x2) could see $130M with bonus IPD weekend cash and good WOM, but that should be about the top end of expectations from here

 

For Beetlejuice, can’t yet rule out $300M, but probably falls short, more like ~$290M total, maybe $295M if it gets a Spooky Season bump over the next few weeks

 

 

[AniNate]

47 minutes ago, M37 said:

For Wild Robot, that puts the target at ~$120M finish (70 + 25x2) could see $130M with bonus IPD weekend cash and good WOM, but that should be about the top end of expectations from here

 

The lack of kids competition until late November is the x factor here. It's not something prior fall comps benefited from. Cloudy had where the wild things are and then a Christmas carol after it, Hotel had Wreck it Ralph and general post Halloween loss of interest.

 

It's also drawing better weekday interest than both of those movies which should eventually boost it against the comps, now that the weekend is catching back up as well. 

 

 

 

 

Edited 21 hours ago by AniNate

[wattage]

The Wild Robot, if it gets IMAX this weekend which it just might, will put the weekly drops in flux for a while longer, but it is very possible that it maintains sub 30% drops until Wicked comes out. Specifically because of the lack of competition thing and also just in general not a lot of new big releases are coming out to take screen space. Joker 2 flopping oddly enough will help out here with that just in terms of screen allocation. And the studio imposed early November dead zone. I think it could hit that 130-140 zone optimistically. 

Edited 20 hours ago by wattage

[M37]

44 minutes ago, AniNate said:

 

The lack of kids competition until late November is the x factor here. It's not something prior fall comps benefited from. Cloudy had where the wild things are and then a Christmas carol after it, Hotel had Wreck it Ralph and general post Halloween loss of interest.

 

It's also drawing better weekday interest than both of those movies which should eventually boost it against the comps, now that the weekend is catching back up as well. 

Using the full weekly total (not weekend) balances out (mostly) vs any comp with a different weekend/weekday audience and pattern 

 

I’m not saying your premise is wrong, just that the baseline is too low and the math isn’t there to support anything higher. For example, Hotel Transylvania made ~$15.4M in the week before Halloween.  If we give it a much higher 2.5x from there, absent Wreck-it-Ralph, as the defacto family option into November, you net an additional ~$10M (~7.5%) onto the total That’s it! (Using week before Halloween because HT clearly had a spooky bump, that then fell off right after, which makes its drops against WIR into Nov seems more severe than pure competition effect)

 

Even moving away from animation to general good leg Fall films, after 14 days TWR is $12M (20%) ahead of Captain Phillips, which went on to have 4 consecutive sub-30% weekly drops before really hitting completion from Thanksgiving releases (2.22x its 2nd week).  Bumping up CP’s final total of 107M by 20% would math out to … $129M for TWR 🤷‍♂️