The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey OS Thread: OVER 1B WW!

[peludo]

Germany 90+

That was my initial thinking but I prefer to be cautious

[Rudolf]

That was my initial thinking but I prefer to be cautious

so do I, but Germans really like Middle Earth and Skyfall shows that the mood is goodvice versa I am less optmistic for Russia Edited December 7, 2012 by Rudolf

[peludo]

so do I, but Germans really like Middle Earth and Skyfall shows that the mood is good

I use BOM lists to know the general behaviour of each market and I had realized that this can be the first year since BOM tracks (and probably ever) with 3 movies over 75 million $ and 4 movies over 65 million $ in Germany (obviously I count with TH). Skyfall is a good proof that German market is quite alive.And, relative to TH, I will add that, in general, whole Europe, and specially, Northern Europe loves Tolkien given the links with Scandinavian mithology. I am expecting ridiculous numbers (like LOTR did) from Sweden, Norway, Finland or Denmark.

[Fullbuster]

so do I, but Germans really like Middle Earth and Skyfall shows that the mood is goodvice versa I am less optmistic for Russia

I see no reason for Russia to disappoint

[Olive]

Japan 70MUK 100MGermany 80MFrance 55MSpain 40MChina 70MSouth Korea 40M

[John Marston]

Japan 70MUK 100MGermany 80MFrance 55MSpain 40MChina 70MSouth Korea 40M

I thought you said SK was looking bad?

[Olive]

ROTK was big there.

[peludo]

Japan 70MUK 100MGermany 80MFrance 55MSpain 40MChina 70MSouth Korea 40M

Very reasonable.However, I have an extremely good feeling with Spain and I think 40 could be low. On the other hand, in my opinon, Japan and China are the key markets in order to reach 1 billion OS. Both should be some higher to have an option, but given the circumstances, these can be very accurate predictions. Edited December 7, 2012 by peludo

[Olive]

Forgot Russia, it's important too!Russia 65M

[Rudolf]

I see no reason for Russia to disappoint

Skyfall 25m

[peludo]

Forgot Russia, it's important too!Russia 65M

That is exactly my prediction for Russia . Another big markets can be Brazil, Mexico, Italy and Sweden. I think Brazil, Mexico and Italy will make around 30-35. LOTR movies, with today exchange rate, made over 20 million in Sweden (ROTK did 24 million), so I am expecting something similar.

[Olive]

Latin America can be surprises!

[rickoshe4830]

adjusted the 3rd lord of the rings made more than (in theory at least) 800 million overseasand the 3rd and 4th ice age films when adjusted have made more than 700bottom line: IMO 800+ overseas is locked for the hobbit but, can i get to 1 billion overseas?

[peludo]

Skyfall 25m

Well, Casino Royale grossed 8.7 million and QoS grossed 18. I think is a good increase, beyond the quality of each movie. And you can take the Twilight example: New Moon 18 and BD2 41, for the moment. We'll see.

[Fullbuster]

Skyfall 25m

Bond isn't a big franchise in Russia, Lord of the Rings is.

[Rudolf]

I use BOM lists to know the general behaviour of each market and I had realized that this can be the first year since BOM tracks (and probably ever) with 3 movies over 75 million $ and 4 movies over 65 million $ in Germany (obviously I count with TH). Skyfall is a good proof that German market is quite alive.And, relative to TH, I will add that, in general, whole Europe, and specially, Northern Europe loves Tolkien given the links with Scandinavian mithology. I am expecting ridiculous numbers (like LOTR did) from Sweden, Norway, Finland or Denmark.

in 2001 Germany had 3 movies with over 10m adm. http://insidekino.de/DJahr/D2001.htmbut 2012 looks good after a shaky start

[peludo]

adjusted the 3rd lord of the rings made more than (in theory at least) 800 million overseasand the 3rd and 4th ice age films when adjusted have made more than 700bottom line: IMO 800+ overseas is locked for the hobbit but, can i get to 1 billion overseas?

It needs every country goes very good. I'm mainly concerned because of China and Japan.I think the potential is enormous in both countries, but in Japan it seems Hollywood movies are losing attendance and there is a schedule problem in China.Without Skyfall competition, TH would go over 100 million in China easily. 60? 70? 80? We'll see where it landsIn Japan, I'm not so sure about the Hollywood problem. Maybe the "casual" movies are losing attendance, but the big franchises continue being enormous and even growing: I do not what is the situation right now, but last year happened this:MI4 grossed 69 against 44 from MI3.TF2 grossed 22 million. Last year TF3 grossed 54.In 2003, POTC grossed 59 million. Last year POTC4 grossed 108.In 2004, HP3 grossed 121 million. Last year, DH2 grossed 124 million.This year we have:Resident Evil: dropped from 55 to 48MIB has grown from 28 to 38Madagascar has grown from 10 to 25TDK has grown from 14 to 24These are not so big franchises and all of them had a space to grow, but show that there is not a drop.I have seen some predictions for TH in Japan of about 50-60, but the fact is FOTR or TTT grossed 65+ with Yen being a 40% lower than now, and ROTK boosted to 94 with a 18% lower currency. And without 3D. We'll see what happens. Edited December 7, 2012 by peludo

[Fullbuster]

It needs every country goes very good. I'm mainly concerned because of China and Japan.I think the potential is enormous in both countries, but in Japan it seems Hollywood movies are losing attendance and there is a schedule problem in China.Without Skyfall competition, TH would go over 100 million in China easily. 60? 70? 80? We'll see where it landsIn Japan, I'm not so sure about the Hollywood problem. Maybe the "casual" movies are losing attendance, but the big franchises continue being enormous and even growing: I do not what is the situation right now, but last year happened this:MI4 grossed 69 against 44 from MI3.TF2 grossed 22 million. Last year TF3 grossed 54.In 2003, POTC grossed 59 million. Last year POTC4 grossed 108.In 2004, HP3 grossed 121 million. Last year, DH2 grossed 124 million.This year we have:Resident Evil: dropped from 55 to 48MIB has grown from 28 to 38Madagascar has grown from 10 to 25TDK has grown from 14 to 24These are not so big franchises and all of them had a space to grow, but show that there is not a drop.I have seen some predictions for TH in Japan of about 50-60, but the fact is FOTR or TTT grossed 65+ with Yen being a 40% lower than now, and ROTK boosted to 94 with a 18% lower currency. And without 3D. We'll see what happens.

Don't forget about Japan : its population is the oldest of the world with a median age of 45. When they age, people are less open-minded about foreign products and movies, they tend to watch more local movies because it's their culture, it's close to them.It's the main reason. But who cares : the rest of Asia, Russia and Latin America will offset this, even much more than that.

[peludo]

Don't forget about Japan : its population is the oldest of the world with a median age of 45. When they age, people are less open-minded about foreign products and movies, they tend to watch more local movies because it's their culture, it's close to them.It's the main reason. But who cares : the rest of Asia, Russia and Latin America will offset this, even much more than that.

Yes, but with an oldest population they spend the same money or more in seeing Pirates of the Caribbean, Harry Potter or Transformers . And I care about it. In my opinion, Japan good behaviour is essential to reach 1 billion OS. We are talking about the third/fourth LOTR market.

[JCS]

$900M OS but $1B is doable.