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T-11 Days - Captain Marvel Presales:

Strong start, ahead of Ultron and Civil War, though like USA presales are likely to be more frontloaded every year. Still a fantastic start regardless. Here's some comps below I have:

 

Movie
Age of Ultron Civil War Infinity War Jurassic World 2 Captain Marvel
Share Tickets Share Tickets Share Tickets Share Tickets Share Tickets
D-13 0.40% 513 4.80% 3,001 - - 2.70% 4,085 --- ---
D-12 2.60% 4,286 13.20% 12,074 - - 5.60% 11,064 --- ---
D-11 10.70% 13,215 17.80% 26,612 34.70% 106,782 6.90% 19,430 7.50% 32,014
D-10 45.20% 25,412 28.70% 36,353 50.90% 151,194 11.70% 26,727    
D-09 52.60% 52,621 68.40% 47,764 82.30% 195,842 30.40% 32,446    
D-08 60.50% 89,148 69.50% 65,652 82.80% 255,893 28.40% 42,774    
D-07 74.60% 202,790 70.30% 85,648 83.10% 312,278 21.70% 50,417    
D-06 74.20% 254,789 69.40% 108,114 83.60% 381,412 43.10% 60,752    
D-05 72.00% 304,101 71.80% 157,805 83.00% 441,715 37.50% 78,272    
D-04 78.90% 355,901 70.70% 209,254 80.00% 521,066 35.90% 105,020    
D-03 93.60% 436,244 80.10% 252,771 83.80% 587,489 49.80% 139,672    
D-02 93.50% 564,163 95.10% 304,951 92.10% 684,782 76.80% 197,643    
D-01 94.30% 723,132 94.30% 434,834 93.30% 869,316 76.20% 312,877    
D-00 95.90% 935,461 95.60% 621,285 96.50% 1,156,280 76.20% 596,941    
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On 2/5/2018 at 5:00 AM, Olive said:

Black Panther 9 days +10 hours

47,684

 

 

On 2/7/2018 at 4:50 PM, Olive said:

Black Panther 6 days  

83,838

 

about 4x SMH same point prior to OD

 

On 2/11/2018 at 3:01 PM, Olive said:

Black Panther 2 days  
175,937
 
= SMH 10 hours to go

 

 

On 2/13/2018 at 4:03 PM, feasby007 said:

Presales at 1am local time: 

415,759

This absolute monster of a number is 71.5% ahead of Spider-Man: Homecoming at the exact same time (242,444). This bodes well for a massive opening, don't ask me how much because I can't even begin to speculate! This looks good for a promising Overseas run for Black Panther though :D 

All the info regarding BP I can find for presales. Can compare to CM in 1.5 days.

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T-10 Days - Captain Marvel Presales:

Good increase for a weekend. Will likely hit 100k Monday or Tuesday. 

 

Movie
Age of Ultron Civil War Infinity War Jurassic World 2 Captain Marvel
Share Tickets Share Tickets Share Tickets Share Tickets Share Tickets
D-13 0.40% 513 4.80% 3,001 - - 2.70% 4,085 --- ---
D-12 2.60% 4,286 13.20% 12,074 - - 5.60% 11,064 --- ---
D-11 10.70% 13,215 17.80% 26,612 34.70% 106,782 6.90% 19,430 7.50% 32,014
D-10 45.20% 25,412 28.70% 36,353 50.90% 151,194 11.70% 26,727 12.5% 46,652
D-09 52.60% 52,621 68.40% 47,764 82.30% 195,842 30.40% 32,446    
D-08 60.50% 89,148 69.50% 65,652 82.80% 255,893 28.40% 42,774    
D-07 74.60% 202,790 70.30% 85,648 83.10% 312,278 21.70% 50,417    
D-06 74.20% 254,789 69.40% 108,114 83.60% 381,412 43.10% 60,752    
D-05 72.00% 304,101 71.80% 157,805 83.00% 441,715 37.50% 78,272    
D-04 78.90% 355,901 70.70% 209,254 80.00% 521,066 35.90% 105,020    
D-03 93.60% 436,244 80.10% 252,771 83.80% 587,489 49.80% 139,672    
D-02 93.50% 564,163 95.10% 304,951 92.10% 684,782 76.80% 197,643    
D-01 94.30% 723,132 94.30% 434,834 93.30% 869,316 76.20% 312,877    
D-00 95.90% 935,461 95.60% 621,285 96.50% 1,156,280 76.20% 596,941    
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T-9 Days - Captain Marvel Presales:

With the weekend now over, Captain Marvel takes the top spot for presales, where it will stay for the remainder of its presale run. It had a stronger increase from yesterday than Infinity War and is showing strong signs. Will maybe hit 90k tomorrow, maybe even 95k. Definitely pass 100k on Tuesday (maybe even Monday if super strong). 

 

Also note it's only on ~500 screens at the moment, when it will likely end up with over 2k screens. So plenty of seats have yet to be scheduled.

 

Movie
Age of Ultron Civil War Infinity War Jurassic World 2 Captain Marvel
Share Tickets Share Tickets Share Tickets Share Tickets Share Tickets
D-13 0.40% 513 4.80% 3,001 - - 2.70% 4,085 --- ---
D-12 2.60% 4,286 13.20% 12,074 - - 5.60% 11,064 --- ---
D-11 10.70% 13,215 17.80% 26,612 34.70% 106,782 6.90% 19,430 7.50% 32,014
D-10 45.20% 25,412 28.70% 36,353 50.90% 151,194 11.70% 26,727 12.5% 46,652
D-09 52.60% 52,621 68.40% 47,764 82.30% 195,842 30.40% 32,446 27.4% 62,546
D-08 60.50% 89,148 69.50% 65,652 82.80% 255,893 28.40% 42,774    
D-07 74.60% 202,790 70.30% 85,648 83.10% 312,278 21.70% 50,417    
D-06 74.20% 254,789 69.40% 108,114 83.60% 381,412 43.10% 60,752    
D-05 72.00% 304,101 71.80% 157,805 83.00% 441,715 37.50% 78,272    
D-04 78.90% 355,901 70.70% 209,254 80.00% 521,066 35.90% 105,020    
D-03 93.60% 436,244 80.10% 252,771 83.80% 587,489 49.80% 139,672    
D-02 93.50% 564,163 95.10% 304,951 92.10% 684,782 76.80% 197,643    
D-01 94.30% 723,132 94.30% 434,834 93.30% 869,316 76.20% 312,877    
D-00 95.90% 935,461 95.60% 621,285 96.50% 1,156,280 76.20% 596,941    
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I think Civil war is the best comparison for this. (Btw why do we take ps numbers from 11 pm instead off 00 Am or 12 pm?)

 

Maybe Black panther (don't really know those ps numbers but they were pretty big as well) 

Looking at these numbers I think 800k - 900k is probably where it will end up in PS. Expecting OW of atleast 4m admission and total run of 8m - 9m maybe stronger legs because it might attract more females. But this is looking verry good. Atleast $60m USD I would Imagine. 

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7 minutes ago, pepsa said:

I think Civil war is the best comparison for this. (Btw why do we take ps numbers from 11 pm instead off 00 Am or 12 pm?)

 

Maybe Black panther (don't really know those ps numbers but they were pretty big as well) 

Looking at these numbers I think 800k - 900k is probably where it will end up in PS. Expecting OW of atleast 4m admission and total run of 8m - 9m maybe stronger legs because it might attract more females. But this is looking verry good. Atleast $60m USD I would Imagine. 

All presale numbers are at midnight. I use the clock that appears on the presale page, which I've always assumed to be korean local time.

 

Also BP ended with ~400k and was inflated by holiday. This will do much better without lunar holiday.

Edited by feasby007
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5 minutes ago, pepsa said:

I think Civil war is the best comparison for this. (Btw why do we take ps numbers from 11 pm instead off 00 Am or 12 pm?)

 

Maybe Black panther (don't really know those ps numbers but they were pretty big as well) 

Looking at these numbers I think 800k - 900k is probably where it will end up in PS. Expecting OW of atleast 4m admission and total run of 8m - 9m maybe stronger legs because it might attract more females. But this is looking verry good. Atleast $60m USD I would Imagine. 

 45/50M is the range (imho) and is great result for an origin story 

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4 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

All presale numbers are at midnight. I use the clock that appears on the presale page, which I've always assumed to be korean local time.

 

Also BP ended with ~400k and was inflated by holiday. This will do much better without lunar holiday.

Yeah I also checked BP. Thats why I used CW to compare it too. It's 31% ahead of CW. So that would translate to 815k PS, but it's less fanboy driven I think (don't know if womens are more ps heavy or less then man) but it's not an avengers movie so i expect a bit bitter PS ramp up. So 900k is doable. (We will see in the next days) and if it hits 900k + in PS I don't see it doing less then 9m admission total) And that woul be a nice $70m extremely strong for a solo movie, honestly insanely strong only IronMan 3 did that and that was comming of avengers and having 2 big movies before the 3rd one. 

 

But I am running ahead. If PS at 5 days before release are still 30% stronger (or more) than CW I do think 7.5m admission is the floor.

For now anything from 6m - 10m admission could happen. Higher end is more likely. Also this exites me so much for EG. Ps for IW were insane, but if CM can attract even more people to be intrested in EG (mostly WW because in SK the extra margine is probable 1m in either direction compared to IW) unless extremely good WoM or Bad. But PS are probably going to be close to 1.3-1.4m for EG.

 

Also every year movies are getting more PS heavy so thats why even is CM does 30% more than CW in ps i doesn't mean it will end up 30% higher in total gross. 

 

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6 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

 45/50M is the range (imho) and is great result for an origin story 

We will have to wait a few more days, but how it's trending this seems a bit low. 

If (I say if) it does go on to get 800k - 900k PS it will open to atleast 3.7m admission ($29m OW) I don't see it not crossing 60m with an OW like that.

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17 minutes ago, pepsa said:

We will have to wait a few more days, but how it's trending this seems a bit low. 

If (I say if) it does go on to get 800k - 900k PS it will open to atleast 3.7m admission ($29m OW) I don't see it not crossing 60m with an OW like that.

29M OW? Thats massive but is not impossible in Korea 

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