IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 Elemental gained over 300 screens today compared with its start yesterday. MI7 actually lost 29. I don't wanna get too ahead of myself but it seems like a recovery is on the cards and Elemental is being rewarded for its superior per showing average. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
upriser7 Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 (edited) Admissions start - Saturday (as of 3AM) MI7 - 240,638 (+196% YD) Elemental - 112,011 (+273% YD, -13% LW) Edited July 14, 2023 by upriser7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 22 minutes ago, upriser7 said: Admissions start - Saturday (as of 3AM) MI7 - 240,638 (+196% YD) Elemental - 112,011 (+286% YD, -13% LW) You're gonna want to compare this with yesterdays 3am numbers, not the 1am ones since there's still people prebooking saturday tickets early in the morning that get added onto the pile. I think Elemental was at around 30k at 3am yesterday so the comp is still around +273%. From now until around 9am nothing really changes much since theatres aren't open and not many people are prebooking in the middle of the night. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
upriser7 Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 1 minute ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said: You're gonna want to compare this with yesterdays 3am numbers, not the 1am ones since there's still people prebooking saturday tickets early in the morning that get added onto the pile. I think Elemental was at around 30k at 3am yesterday so the comp is still around +273%. From now until around 9am nothing really changes much since theatres aren't open and not many people are prebooking in the middle of the night. Oh, I thought nothing much would have changed between 1AM-3AM..so I was comparing it with yesterday's 1AM numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 Numbers at 1AM where 108(.5ish)k Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 July 15, 2023 (Saturday - 9AM) Rank Title Release Date Daily Gross (Total) Admissions (Total) Number of Screens Revenue Share 1 Mission: Impossible Jul 12, 2023 $2,032,673 ($8,338,355) 250,905 (1,041,570) 2,250 61.69% 2 Elemental Jun 14, 2023 $883,139 ($30,116,498) 116,925 (3,878,883) 1,223 26.8% 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 (edited) July 15, 2023 (Saturday - 11AM) Rank Title Release Date Daily Gross (Total) Admissions (Total) Number of Screens Revenue Share 1 Mission: Impossible Jul 12, 2023 $2,275,252 ($8,580,934) 282,995 (1,073,660) 2,265 61.15% 2 Elemental Jun 14, 2023 $1,022,438 ($30,255,796) 135,693 (3,897,651) 1,236 27.47% Edited July 16, 2023 by TalismanRing 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 July 15, 2023 - Saturday 1PM Rank Title Release Date Daily Gross (Total) Admissions (Total) Number of Screens Revenue Share 1 Mission: Impossible Jul 12, 2023 $2,638,412 ($8,944,094) 329,047 (1,119,712) 2,271 60.57% 2 Elemental Jun 14, 2023 $1,234,704 ($30,468,063) 162,704 (3,924,662) 1,240 28.34% 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 So far based in the 1pm update (162,704) Elemental's walkups are running at 81.5% of last week. We'll see how that holds in the key 1pm-5pm hours but if it maintains that all day it will end around 275k (-18%). Really curious to see the number of showtimes it took off of MI7 since its walkups are running at nearly 60% of it today (versus nearly 40% yesterday). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 July 15, 2023: Saturday 3PM Rank Title Release Date Daily Gross (Total) Admissions (Total) Number of Screens Revenue Share 1 Mission: Impossible Jul 12, 2023 $3,098,536 ($9,404,218) 386,176 (1,176,841) 2,277 60.1% 2 Elemental Jun 14, 2023 $1,500,159 ($30,733,349) 195,742 (3,957,679) 1,250 29.1% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 July 15, 2023: Saturday 5PM Rank Title Release Date Daily Gross (Total) Admissions (Total) Number of Screens Revenue Share 1 Mission: Impossible Jul 12, 2023 $3,489,900 ($9,795,582) 434,395 (1,225,060) 2,289 59.88% 2 Elemental Jun 14, 2023 $1,712,152 ($30,945,334) 221,754 (3,983,690) 1,254 29.38% 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 On 7/8/2023 at 1:09 AM, TalismanRing said: Elemental SATURDAY (on 1,639! screens) 9am: 138,504 11am: 161,419 1pm: 194,688 (+9.99% last Saturday) 3pm: 236,326 (+12%) 5pm: 273,119 (+11.02%) 7pm: 300,089 (+14.53%) 9pm: 321,597 (+14.83%) 11pm: 332,408 (+15.41%) END: 334,432 (+15.34%) Saturday July 15 - 5PM MI7: 434,395 Elemental: 221,754 (-19% LW) Elemental is probably drifting to -20% (~267k), MI7 has had 183.5k walkups since 9am versus 134.6k for Elemental last week between 9am and 5pm (+36%). Not a perfect comparison but it'll do for now and points to 267k total walkups. Adding that on to the 251k start gives a finish of 518k (+124% YD). I'd guess we're looking at around 1.8-1.9m admissions for the 5-day and 1.25-1.3m for the 3-day depending on the Sunday hold. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 Man that is barely 60% up from opening sat, it truly is joever 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Miller Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 35 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said: Saturday July 15 - 5PM MI7: 434,395 Elemental: 221,754 (-19% LW) Elemental is probably drifting to -20% (~267k), MI7 has had 183.5k walkups since 9am versus 134.6k for Elemental last week between 9am and 5pm (+36%). Not a perfect comparison but it'll do for now and points to 267k total walkups. Adding that on to the 251k start gives a finish of 518k (+124% YD). I'd guess we're looking at around 1.8-1.9m admissions for the 5-day and 1.25-1.3m for the 3-day depending on the Sunday hold. Given the low competition for nearly 2 weeks & positive word of mouth, do you think DR1 has a shot to cross Fallout? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 (edited) July 15, 2023: Saturday 7PM Rank Title Release Date Daily Gross (Total) Admissions (Total) Number of Screens Revenue Share 1 Mission: Impossible Jul 12, 2023 $3,784,594 ($10,090,241) 470,751 (1,261,412) 2,292 59.82% 2 Elemental Jun 14, 2023 $1,863,546 ($31,096,719) 240,219 (4,002,154) 1,258 29.45 Elemental hits 4m admissions Edited July 15, 2023 by TalismanRing 7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 Just now, Brian Miller said: Given the low competition for nearly 2 weeks & positive word of mouth, do you think DR1 has a shot to cross Fallout? I only has one 'free' week going forward. In it's 3rd / 4th weekend, local blockbusters will open and IM7 will take a big hit. Also I think we shoudn't use the 166.5k in previews in estimating the OW multi going forward. Yeah IM7 will open to about 1.7-1.8m but 0.166 is in previews so the real OW is more like 1.6m, maybe a bit less. Currently I am thinking a 3x OW multi would be very good => 4.7m + 0.166 previews => 4.87m total. However with competition looking quite rough then next weeks 3x multi will be very hard and atm I woudn't bet on it. That said lets see how sunday drop is, let's see the monday drop, second weekend etc. There is still a lot that can happen but currently nothing is indicating that it will have insane legs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Miller Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 2 minutes ago, pepsa said: I only has one 'free' week going forward. In it's 3rd / 4th weekend, local blockbusters will open and IM7 will take a big hit. Also I think we shoudn't use the 166.5k in previews in estimating the OW multi going forward. Yeah IM7 will open to about 1.7-1.8m but 0.166 is in previews so the real OW is more like 1.6m, maybe a bit less. Currently I am thinking a 3x OW multi would be very good => 4.7m + 0.166 previews => 4.87m total. However with competition looking quite rough then next weeks 3x multi will be very hard and atm I woudn't bet on it. That said lets see how sunday drop is, let's see the monday drop, second weekend etc. There is still a lot that can happen but currently nothing is indicating that it will have insane legs. 4.87m admits means it will be around $45M right? That'd be less than Fallout. I was expecting $50M from SK at least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 (edited) 17 minutes ago, Brian Miller said: Given the low competition for nearly 2 weeks & positive word of mouth, do you think DR1 has a shot to cross Fallout? Fallout opened way higher (2.3m 3-day, 3.3m 5-day) but only had a 2.86 multiplier off the 3-day to finish at 6.58m admissions. This is obviously starting lower so will need much better legs to surpass Fallout. TGM is the second comp and is probably a better one since it also opened on a Wednesday before holidays started. The numbers are quite similar so far: Day TGM Dead Reckoning 1 EA 64,704 166,787 Wed 188,312 229,759 Thu 146,105 162,721 Fri 216,163 231,398 Sat 472,306 518,000* Sun 438,673 3-day 1,127,142 OW 1,526,263 Final 8,177,446 Multiplier (FSS) 7.26 If DR1 can finish at 518k that would be the exact same Thu -> Fri jump TGM had. It's not quite holding as good as TGM overall though since its Wed -> Sat multiplier is 2.25x versus 2.51x for TGM, but it's definitely gonna be leggier than Fallout. The problem is the competition. Elemental slowly chipping away at its screen count + Conan next week + Smugglers after that and Ransomed after that is a MUCH tougher first four weeks than what TGM had to deal with (500k local opener week 2, Love & Thunder opening to 1.75m week 3 but being very frontloaded, nothing in week 4). By the end of week 4 TGM had 5.73m admissions, I think DR1 would be very lucky to have 5m by the same point, but even 4m would be a good achievement. IMO 5-6m admissions as the ceiling seems right but maybe other people have more insights to share that might work in its favour. Edited July 15, 2023 by IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr1006 Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 According to Korean media, Elemental passed 4 million admissions at 6:37pm local time with 4,000,150 admissions Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Brian Miller said: 4.87m admits means it will be around $45M right? That'd be less than Fallout. I was expecting $50M from SK at least. Admission times 8 is the current dollar value but that might go down a bit during its run. So 7.8-7.9 x admission seems safe. With current ATP 4.87m addmision would mean $39m. Edited July 15, 2023 by pepsa 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...