Frozen OS thread

[Murgatroyd]

MU's 4th weekend was down 60% from the first already. It wasn't holding still in summer. Week 7 was the end of summer and midweek sales evaporated and the big weekend decline occurred. Frozen has golden week for week 8 and 9. Could be at 135-140m by the end of GW.TS 3 also had a quick death when summer was over. If it were to drop like them, it would have dropped 30% this past weekend and not be down just 18% today from the first wed. We are dealing with different animal.

 

Yes, we appear to be dealing with a different animal here.  However, extrapolations are never certain.  That's why I'm putting the percent probability of a steep decline in low single digits, not at zero.

[chuck0]

The only thing that might be a bit strange when using your prediction as fixed point and base the percentages on that is, that it heavily favors overprediction... please correct me if i am wrong, but according to that method a $200M prediction for frozens DOM would be worse than say predicting one trillion dollars since that wont be 100% off?

[mfantin65]

Yes, we appear to be dealing with a different animal here.  However, extrapolations are never certain.  That's why I'm putting the percent probability of a steep decline in low single digits, not at zero.

I also factored in the possibility of two 30% declines after this week, reasonable considering its averaging less than 10%.. That takes it to 107, then GW will be worth 25m over 2weeks. 132m, 5m the follwing week and 33% declines from there plus sing along boost and im still at 150m w/o lingering legs that happen w/o this size run.

[mfantin65]

The only thing that might be a bit strange when using your prediction as fixed point and base the percentages on that is, that it heavily favors overprediction... please correct me if i am wrong, but according to that method a $200M prediction for frozens DOM would be worse than say predicting one trillion dollars since that wont be 100% off?

the other side of the coin is if you predict $1 you can never be more than 100% off but I could be 400% over.. I guess if you have a competion you have to make rules and stick by themclosest you can get without going over. Like price is right% of your prediction. Like BOM Derby. If your not within 25% no one should win though% off the reported number. So maybe we should just say closest dollar number.In the end I truly believed in FEB that this would resonate in Japan and said 130m. A couple people said SA 230m and the crazy comments came out. So now the numbers are rolling in and 200m is in play, 230 or whatever number could happen, its hard to gauge a runners ceiling. For people that thought 75m and now think 120m, when its mathematically obvious 150m to the sky is going to happen, to call people that say 200- 230 are crazy is just plain ridiculous. I hear all sorts of shit fly around the trading room, I've made some great calls over the years and so many that can't make money use that term, shouting matches and nearly fisticuffs ensue.. I guess that term just gets under my skin when said by some so off.. IDKY cuz I still trade. Wear a t shirt and sandals to work 4 hours a day, take 2 months a year off to be in the himalayas, and I love it. Many of the 95% that tried and lost at trading had to get 60hour a week suit and tie jobs. In the end, I win. I guess crazy is a good term Edited April 9, 2014 by mfantin65

[chuck0]

Dont get me wrong, i am really impressed with how good you are keeping up with this run and i like reading your posts.

 

btw, closest number in dollars would basically boil down to taking a percentage based on the actual number if i am not mistaken. But yes, as long as 25% are the llimit for actually counting a win then both methods are really really close anyways

[mfantin65]

Catlover, your a mathematician? After seeing todays hold, gun to your head , what's the final tally? Dont worry about going over and being disappointed cuz omni will pull the trigger if your not closest and that would be more disappointing.

[mfantin65]

Dont get me wrong, i am really impressed with how good you are keeping up with this run and i like reading your posts. btw, closest number in dollars would basically boil down to taking a percentage based on the actual number if i am not mistaken. But yes, as long as 25% are the llimit for actually counting a win then both methods are really really close anyways

thank you.. the box office derby worked out ok and was fun. Pissed they got rid of it.What's your prediction?

[chuck0]

thank you.. the box office derby worked out ok and was fun. Pissed they got rid of it.What's your prediction?

 

final prediction?

i guess your argumentation for it going well beyound 150M sounds really solid (though its hard to tell for me since i am pretty much a newbie when it comes to BO numbers ) so i will say $190M and hope for the best

 

my initial $95M before release and $115M after release wont hold anyways

Edited April 9, 2014 by chuck0

[mfantin65]

final prediction?i guess your argumentation for it going well beyound 150M sounds really solid (though its hard to tell for me since i am pretty much a newbie when it comes to BO numbers ) so i will say $190M and hope for the best  my initial $95M before release and $115M after release wont hold anyways

nice number. Welcome to the club. I started 39 years ago. Im on board w 200m as statistically viable and w a little hope. I love a runner. we'll know better w next wed number and april 28th's.

[mfantin65]

Dont get me wrong, i am really impressed with how good you are keeping up with this run and i like reading your posts. btw, closest number in dollars would basically boil down to taking a percentage based on the actual number if i am not mistaken. But yes, as long as 25% are the llimit for actually counting a win then both methods are really really close anyways

now that I thought about it. Yes dollar and percentage are the same when its a tie.But a contest with 3 movies the conservative one is at an advantage. If I say 150m and you say 50m . at 100m we score equal, dollar and percetage wise. 50m 50% awayMovie 2 same predictions. 150m total.I'm 0% 0m. You are 66% 100m awaymovie 3 bombs 50m. Im 200% 100m. You 0 0 away. Were both at 150m but you win percentage wise.im 50% right. That minus 200 scores me 0+100+50÷3ur 61% right. 50+34+100÷3that's a game for pikers. Who wants to play a bo contest when ur punished trying to predict a breakout hit. Or any game for that matter. Only people that make money in the markets or starting a business is by reaching. Otherwise get a municipal job and bitch about it for forty years. Ha!BOM had it right. They pegged ur number. That encourages boldness or you got zero for not taking a chance.Y'all see wolf of wall street? That attitude and dialogue is dead on. "Step up to the plate or go suck some cock." Is the motto in my trade group. And. " if you have no conviction and your not in the trade STFU!"Fuck it! Life can be disappointing. Get used to it people. 200m locked!! Grow some fucking steel balls and put em on the chopping block!Only way to live. WTG chucky. A lot of people around here have an opinion of other predictions but dont step up w some substance.Off to miami to spend some prediction money.later bitches

[mfantin65]

Oh and by the way. Its been pointed out more than once that I mentioned avatar in SK. I never said it would happen. Just was tracking it and that it was a possibilty.now I am saying IM3.will happen. So any thoughts on SK that anyone has. By all means, take a Genoa salami wrapped in 30 weight sandpaper and shove it up your backside at 1200 rpm! If you think im crazy. Put your number out there and better yet put money on it or STFU. If it falls short by 3m kiss my ass, ill be a lot closer than all the 120 125 predictions. Or that idiot last week that said we were aiming to high and it couldn't surpass MU. He has to ride the short bus back to elementary school to learn basic math. Welcome to wall street!Bueno notte

[Murgatroyd]

the other side of the coin is if you predict $1 you can never be more than 100% off but I could be 400% over..

I guess if you have a competion you have to make rules and stick by them

closest you can get without going over. Like price is right

% of your prediction. Like BOM Derby. If your not within 25% no one should win though

% off the reported number.

So maybe we should just say closest dollar number.

 

I propose max(prediction, actual)/min(prediction, actual), where a lower number, i.e. closer to 1, is better.  This way, if the actual value is 100, predictions of 50 and 200 (both off by a factor of 2) are equally bad.

 

 

Here are my best- and worst-case projections for the next few weeks:

[FrozenFan626]

I enjoy tracking BO. I dont watch cartoons. Lol. Seriously.When I was 12, the target audience for star wars in 77, I fell asleep in the theater, havent watched another since

 

Dude I enjoy following Frozen's BO run, but if you didn't like or haven't seen the film then what's the point? I mean I get the whole fascination over a statistical outlier-type deal but still at certain point I feel that the passion for the movie itself has to be there too. I personally would be likely be actively rooting against a movie's financial success if I thought that it didn't deserve it.

Edited April 10, 2014 by Kingslayer

[mfantin65]

Dude I enjoy following Frozen's BO run, but if you didn't like or haven't seen the film then what's the point? I mean I get the whole fascination over a statistical outlier-type deal but still at certain point I feel that the passion for the movie itself has to be there too. I personally would be likely be actively rooting against a movie's financial success if I thought that it didn't deserve it.

Ithats your unqualified idiotic opinion. thats what you need for you. We're not all like you and thank god.. Rooting against things you dont like, probably because your too infantile to understand them. Your obviosly too egocentric in not comprehending another's reason for their passion. Remember this is a "box office" forum not a groupie forum. Its about the numbers. Doesnt matter what the subject is. Go wait in line for a sold out doll and stop bothering people.

[FrozenFan626]

Ithats your unqualified idiotic opinion. thats what you need for you. We're not all like you and thank god.. Rooting against things you dont like, probably because your too infantile to understand them. Your obviosly too egocentric in not comprehending another's reason for their passion. Remember this is a "box office" forum not a groupie forum. Its about the numbers. Doesnt matter what the subject is. Go wait in line for a sold out doll and stop bothering people.

 

Listen I honestly meant no offense and was certainly not attempting to "bother" you, I was merely trying to pick your brain on the issue and presented my own personal motivations but instead of responding to my post you go on a tirade and insult me. Okay then...

[Rsyu]

Yeah no need for the name calling mate, while this is indeed a box office forum, people primarily join this site because of their love of movies. That's the main catalyst for posting numbers everyday, and following updates. We're happy for the success the film has because we feel it's our own success too. Not saying what you're doing isn't cool either mfantin, it's just surprising to see someone summoning up so much enthusiasm and effort for a movie they're apparently indifferent over. 

But I can see it from your point of view too, crunching BO numbers can be really fun and for someone in your profession (stock trade I believe?) I guess it will be doubly so. Just pointing out people follow box office runs for different reasons and numbers isn't the only reason

[mfantin65]

I dont question why adults watch a toon 10 tmes in a week or buy dolls. Thats their thing. Im about the numbers, keeps my mind sharp, my thing.. if you "get the statistical outlier-type deal" then why ask in the first place, then assume there should be a passion about the underlying subject. Dude. Rooting for something fail is just a waste of time and energy. Be constructive.

[FrozenFan626]

I dont question why adults watch a toon 10 tmes in a week or buy dolls. Thats their thing. Im about the numbers, keeps my mind sharp, my thing.. if you "get the statistical outlier-type deal" then why ask in the first place, then assume there should be a passion about the underlying subject. Dude. Rooting for something fail is just a waste of time and energy. Be constructive.

 

Well I wouldn't be tracking numbers for a movie I was rooting against more of a general reaction like "Oh that new Transformers movie just made $1Billion, that kind of sucks". But again to each his own, and I had appreciated your input on these Frozen threads, I just happen to personally care more about the movie itself than the results (not that I'm not loving this phenomenal run). 

Edited April 10, 2014 by Kingslayer

[mfantin65]

name="Rsyu" post="1333593" timestamp="1397098115"]Yeah no need for the name calling mate, while this is indeed a box office forum, people primarily join this site because of their love of movies. That's the main catalyst for posting numbers everyday, and following updates. We're happy for the success the film has because we feel it's our own success too. Not saying what you're doing isn't cool either mfantin, it's just surprising to see someone summoning up so much enthusiasm and effort for a movie they're apparently indifferent over. But I can see it from your point of view too, crunching BO numbers can be really fun and for someone in your profession (stock trade I believe?) I guess it will be doubly so. Just pointing out people follow box office runs for different reasons and numbers isn't the only reason

[Rsyu]

I dont question why adults watch a toon 10 tmes in a week or buy dolls. Thats their thing. Im about the numbers, keeps my mind sharp, my thing.. if you "get the statistical outlier-type deal" then why ask in the first place, then assume there should be a passion about the underlying subject. Dude. Rooting for something fail is just a waste of time and energy. Be constructive.

Obviously I "got it" after listening to what you said otherwise I wouldn't have asked. Following box office runs for the pure love of numbers isn't common, most people are fans of the movies they track closely. Seriously no one's out to get you or anything, so relax