Weekend (8/10-12/12) Estimates: Bourne Legacy 40.3M; Campaign 27.4M; Hope Springs 15.6M

[Totem]

Bourne will drop close to if not just over 60%, TE2 will definitely have some sort of affect and if you also factor in the mixed WOM I definitely do not see more than 100m for TBL

[MovieMan89]

Ice Age is doing fantastic in its later legs. I knew it would after that underwhelming OW. Only trailing the first one by $6m through the same point now.

[wileECoyote]

All this talk about the ending being lame is BS considering Bourne Identity ended in a similar fashion.

Agree and disagree.The last shot

with the Cross and Marta In the boat near Palawan is similar to the beach shop scene with Bourne and Marie

But the whole ending for BI felt like it wrapped up the movie's story. BL didn't do it as well.

Edited August 12, 2012 by WileECoyote

[Shawn Robbins]

Eh, I'd say Bourne did have some effect on Total Recall and TDKR. Not a huge one obviously, but enough to call it a factor at least. The demographics certainly cross over between the three films (adult males).

And that's really only to say that if Bourne weren't a factor, maybe Recall drops "only" 60 percent instead of 68 percent...

[ecstasy]

I don't hate Bourne. I love the original three. In fact, I rated Supremacy and Ultimatum higher than any action movies of the last 20 years. I hate fucking cash grab sequels like this one. But that still doesn't change the fact that Recall's own WOM has a hell of a lot more to do with its drop than Bourne. Bourne didn't kill TDKR, so I'm not sure why it would kill an even newer release.

I was only messing with you.

[redfirebird2008]

Eh, I'd say Bourne did have some effect on Total Recall and TDKR. Not a huge one obviously, but enough to call it a factor at least. The demographics certainly cross over between the three films (adult males).

And that's really only to say that if Bourne weren't a factor, maybe Recall drops "only" 60 percent instead of 68 percent...

I would think The Campaign and Bourne combined had an effect, but they didn't "kill" any movies. A movie sinks or swims based on its own word of mouth. TDKR didn't die this weekend despite having a ton of screens and theaters taken from it for the new openers. Recall died because it has shitty word of mouth.

[MovieMan89]

Bourne definitely had an effect on TR. I can't imagine it being the type of movie anyone would hate and tell others to avoid at all costs. It's too generic and inoffensive for that. So something besides just WOM caused it to drop 70% this weekend. The 3 openers, especially Bourne.

[ecstasy]

Agree and disagree.The last shot

with the Cross and Marta In the boat near Palawan is similar to the beach shop scene with Bourne and Marie

But the whole ending for BI felt like it wrapped up the movie's story. BL didn't do it as well.

Yes. Great observation.

[MovieMan89]

Agree and disagree.The last shot

with the Cross and Marta In the boat near Palawan is similar to the beach shop scene with Bourne and Marie

But the whole ending for BI felt like it wrapped up the movie's story. BL didn't do it as well.

That's because there isn't much story to speak of in TBL. Honestly I could easily sum up the whole movie's plot in a sentence or two, and not leave anything important out.

[Totem]

So Denzel has never done a sequel? Is it his choice or have none of his films been 'big' enough for one?

[wileECoyote]

Bourne will drop close to if not just over 60%, TE2 will definitely have some sort of affect and if you also factor in the mixed WOM I definitely do not see more than 100m for TBL

I guess a drop in the low 50s is too much to ask for BL especially with the mixed WOM

[MovieMan89]

Not surprising Denzel hasn't done a sequel considering he's never done a movie that could really become a franchise. His films are always one shot stories.

[ecstasy]

So Denzel has never done a sequel? Is it his choice or have none of his films been 'big' enough for one?

I don't think it's the money but the films. They don't call for sequels. He even dies in a couple of them.

[redfirebird2008]

Wow, didn't even realize there was a $21m gap between #14 and #15 on the all-time domestic chart. Once TDKR passes TF2, it'll be between 15 and 16. Kind of a bizarre little piece of trivia.

[Totem]

Not surprising Denzel hasn't done a sequel considering he's never done a movie that could really become a franchise. His films are always one shot stories.

Yeh very true, do you think he intentionally avoids anything that could be made into a sequel?

[Totem]

I don't think it's the money but the films. They don't call for sequels. He even dies in a couple of them.

I had similar thoughts. Looking at it purely from a BO perspective I can't help but think this guy could be huge if he gets involved in some sort of franchise potential films.

[MovieMan89]

Yeh very true, do you think he intentionally avoids anything that could be made into a sequel?

It's possible. Perhaps he doesn't wanna get wrapped up in anything for that long. It's very impressive though that he's made himself the box office star he has without ever doing a movie like that. Really he's never done a big budget or event movie at all.

[JCS]

Shame TDKR did not cross $20M, unless actuals increase that is.

[redfirebird2008]

It's possible. Perhaps he doesn't wanna get wrapped up in anything for that long. It's very impressive though that he's made himself the box office star he has without ever doing a movie like that. Really he's never done a big budget or event movie at all.

Yep. Impressive A-list status given the lack of franchises on his resume. He doesn't lean on a franchise for publicity and money like a lot of other A-listers. Streep is another one that has avoided this.

[Chewy]

I think his biggest budget movie was Unstoppable? Kind of bizarre when you actually stop to think about it