China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[Robertron]

2 days earlier than NA.

Awesome. That means we get numbers earlier

[lab276]

Will So Young come close to Lost in Thailand?

[Olive]

Will So Young come close to Lost in Thailand?

Not really.I hope IM3 kills it soon.

IM3 gets more screens than SY.

[Robertron]

Will So Young come close to Lost in Thailand?

I'm not sure what LiT opened to, but - $23m OW for SY would require a near 10X multi to reach LiT.

[Olive]

Awesome. That means we get numbers earlier

Firedeep and me will update the numbers ASAP.

[Robertron]

Firedeep and me will update the numbers ASAP.

Great, thanks

[A Marvel Fanboy]

SY is not making $150M+. May just is not the time to produce such big movies (maybe May can in 2015 or 2015, but not now). Had it released in Dec, then it would do.

[Alex Bennett]

Crazy midnight sales....  A theatre in Xiamen even opened one show on 5 a.m...

[Olive]

Yep, we can expect some excellent numbers!

And I will go to a 2D show tomorrow morning.

[Olive]

80%(17 out of 21) of midnight shows in Changchun Wanda cinemas are sold out!  

[Alex Bennett]

Yep, we can expect some excellent numbers!

And I will go to a 2D show tomorrow morning.

 

 

Yep, we can expect some excellent numbers!

And I will go to a 2D show tomorrow morning.

Go for IMAX 3D!

[Olive]

Go for IMAX 3D!

I may go to IMAX next week, too far from me,and the size is kina imin...

[Lordmandeep]

So the film is doing very strongly in China?

[druv10]

When can we expect some midnight estimate in China?

[Olive]

When can we expect some midnight estimate in China?

9:14pm here, so in 13 hours.

[Olive]

So the film is doing very strongly in China?

Midnights shows are way better than TA.

[Lordmandeep]

Compeition is strong but you think it can around TA gross or just under?

[A Marvel Fanboy]

      A 3D print for IM3 that you could see in any Wanda cinema 

 

With the market share for foreign movies falling to Historically-low pathetic 30%, IM3 pretty much became the only hope for Hollywood in China of the year. The anticipation for the first mega Sino-US co-produced movie, from every party, is big. Anyone is watching how it gonna pull out ....

 

No more time wasting, first thing first. This is the screening count for April 30, the day previous IM3 opening:

[*]So Young 43% [*]The Croods 19% [*]GIJ2 13% [*]Conspirators 9% [*]AWI 4% [*]Others 12%

For May 1, it looks like:

[*]Iron Man 3 40% [*]So Young 34% [*]The Croods 11% [*]Conspirators 5% [*]GIJ2 3% [*]Others 3%

With more than 75000 total screenings scheduled national wide on May 1, IM3 OD screenings should be no less than 30000. That is the biggest rolling out for a Hollywood movie ever, beating previous record-holder Skyfall. IM3 also enjoys the strongest theatrical distribution compaign a foreign film has ever received from CFG. The online promotion is strong as usual. Given the film's Chinese partner (DMG) is also one of the biggest graphic advertising company in China, the offline promotion for IM3 is needless to say one of the strongest. 

 

The Avengers (5.4) provided a good example for IM3. TA opened to 67M yuan on a Saturday with a 4.8M Friday midnight debut. IM3 opens on a holiday. So theoretically the two case are very close to each other, opening day wise. That said, less than 63M yuan $10M OD for IM3 would be considered disappointing given all the benifits it has got, dispite all the release date suspension until a few days ago. [One other thing to note is that, IM3 now is a foreign buyout movie, the biggest buyout movie to date, instead of a revenue-sharing one. The last minute identity change was made so its theatrical distribution can be fully handled by CFG, instead of co-distributed by CFGC and HFDC. Yup, HFDC sucks.]

 

Anyway, with around 1500 midnight shows scheduled, the third widest ever for a single movie, only behind TF3 (2000, 12M yuan) and Titanic 3D (1600+, 11m), less than 6M yuan midnight (or $0.95m) gross would be disappointing. And in this specific situation, OD gross can be expected to be x9 midnight or so imo. Then can it hit 2x total off its 5 days opening ? It should, but not much more, given the heavy competition in May later. That is to say, it would need to open to around $50m (311M, or at least 300M) through 5 days to have a decent shot at $100M. Highly unlikely unless it hits $13M (80m) OD, 2nd biggest OD ever. Again, too much to ask....

 

Projected daily drops (with whatever OD) through opening week:

[*]Wed xx [*]Thu -45% [*]Fri +15% [*]Sat +40% [*]Sun -20%

MD x9 = OD

OD x3.75 = OW

OW x2 = Total

 

Roughly ....

 

Stay tuned for our first midnight update coming shortly ...

Edited April 30, 2013 by firedeep

[Olive]

Compeition is strong but you think it can around TA gross or just under?

Dunno.But I see OD easily breaks $10M.

Tons of midnights are sold out, some 2:30am shows too.

[druv10]

I hope IM3 kicks the crap out of So young.