China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[TigerPaw]

17 minutes ago, nVIDIADriver said:

The Per-Sales for Thursday,

 

The Great Wall 14.41M 

Hacksaw 2.18M (2.54M yesterday, -14%)

Your Name  1.29M (1.55M yesterday, -17%)

Suddenly Seventeen 1.00M

Sully 0.73M

Fantastic Beasts 0.57M

 

 

The Great Wall will of course dominate evening shows today, but it seems too tough to pass 40M/US$5.79M. Due to strong WOM, Hacksaw got 21.3% of the total showtimes today. both YN and Sully lost 1/4 of their showtimes. 

 

 

Predictions for total final gross of TGW?

[POTUS 2020]

44 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

Predictions for total final gross of TGW?

600-700m yuan

[nVIDIADriver]

35 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

Predictions for total final gross of TGW?

 

 

I have seen the trailer in New York and personally I am not interested in this film, however I never thought that the pre-sales is that low. Perhaps, it will have a 37M/90M($5.36/$13.04) opening, a 350M($50.72M) OW and then get 700M($101.4M) at the end. 

[nVIDIADriver]

My predictions for TGW and HR,

 

TGW

37M - Thursday previews

90M (+143%)

122M (35%)

91M (-25%)

340M/$49.3M for its four-day opening weekend.

 

Because TGW has such a big previews, it really tough to predict its numbers accurately now.

 

HR

14M

12.6M (-10%)

27.7M (+120%) 

24.9M (-10%)

65.2M/$9.45M (cume to 249M/$36.11M) for its second weekend.

 

It's also not easy to predict this one, Hacksaw will lose more than half of its showtimes on Friday hence it will probably decline TMR.

 

 

[TigerPaw]

8 hours ago, nVIDIADriver said:

 

 

I have seen the trailer in New York and personally I am not interested in this film, however I never thought that the pre-sales is that low. Perhaps, it will have a 37M/90M($5.36/$13.04) opening, a 350M($50.72M) OW and then get 700M($101.4M) at the end. 

If the movie suck, which is what I am hearing, even a 350M Yuan OW will not carry to 700m Yuan.
I don't usually want a movie to not do well, but in this case, i hope it flops due to a variety of reasons. 

Edited December 15, 2016 by TigerPaw

[TigerPaw]

8 hours ago, POTUS said:

600-700m yuan

Anything below 1 billion yuan is considered a flop according to some insiders(heard this on Baidu Tieba), due to the huge budget.

[nVIDIADriver]

33 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

If the movie suck, which is what I am hearing, even a 350M Yuan OW will not carry to 700m Yuan.
I don't usually want a movie to not do well, but in this case, i hope it flops due to a variety of reasons. 

 

I am not sure if the audiences like this movie. The poor pre-sales gives us some clues, but sometimes it's not that accurate. 

 

Anyway, no matter how much it can make, it will dominate the whole market on Friday, in other words, every holder will be hurt. Due to the excellent WOM, Hacksaw will 'just' lose 2/3 of its showtimes (21% to 8%), but others are not that lucky, for example, Sully will probably get only 1% (8% to 1%) of the total showtimes on Friday, such a sad story... 

 

 

 

Edited December 15, 2016 by nVIDIADriver

[Olive]

Most Chinese would think: Why the hell go to see white people in a Chinese movie, why not see a Hollywood movie directly?

[nVIDIADriver]

Due to some technical problems, the estimates yesterday are too low. It's not 16.1M(-10%), but more like 17.5M(-2%) for HR, Olive will give us the actuals later.

[Olive]

Wednesday actuals
Hacksaw Ridge ￥17.5M/171.6M
Suddenly Seventeen ￥9.2M/105M  
Your Name ￥6.87M /516.5M  
Sully ￥3.95M/50.9M
Fantastic Beasts  ￥2.6M /578M  
Miss Peregrine ￥1.3M /114.3M 
Moana ￥0.62M /181.7M 
 

[POTUS 2020]

6 hours ago, TigerPaw said:

If the movie suck, which is what I am hearing, even a 350M Yuan OW will not carry to 700m Yuan.
I don't usually want a movie to not do well, but in this case, i hope it flops due to a variety of reasons. 

If it does suck it could still do 2x OW. itll make 1/3 of OW during the week. Even with a big release next Friday, its holiday time and it will get a boost and could make another 1/3(-66%) next weekend and limp to 2x.

 

[Polaroids]

3 hours ago, Olive said:

Most Chinese would think: Why the hell go to see white people in a Chinese movie, why not see a Hollywood movie directly?

Aren't they marketing this as a Hollywood movie?

 

It would be a shame if it made less than 1B yuan in China which will perhaps be its biggest market. I don't see this doing better in NA or other parts of the world.

[POTUS 2020]

3 hours ago, Olive said:

Most Chinese would think: Why the hell go to see white people in a Chinese movie, why not see a Hollywood movie directly?

Why not see a hybrid instead of just Hollywood or a Chinese movie. Local scenery and actors with a big Hollywood budget and top special effects that comes with that budget.

A lot of comments about white people and whitewashing, this production is about  green dollars and euros, peso, rubles and yen. Mermaid and IP3 made just $60m in Domestic and OS combined. This will make several times more with Damon in the lead and half the movie in English. A few billion people know his name. Japan embraced The Last Samarai with Cruise. Made $119m in Japan, and more importantly made $400m WW. If it was all local, it too could have made $119m in Japan but would just made $130m WW

 

 

Get your Derby Picks in by midnight PT.

In addition to the normal prize for winning the derby, closest RO prediction wins a 2 months Gold account prize regardless of how you performed on other picks. However, you must enter predictions for all 10 movies to qualify

Also, new elimination tourney begins this weekend. Just sign up and enter your picks for the derby and you're paired in a bracket automatically

http://derby.boxofficetheory.com/Predictions.aspx

Edited December 15, 2016 by POTUS

[Olive]

13 minutes ago, POTUS said:

Why not see a hybrid instead of just Hollywood or a Chinese movie. Local scenery and actors with a big Hollywood budget and top special effects that comes with that budget.

A lot of comments about white people and whitewashing, this production is about  green dollars and euros, peso, rubles and yen. Mermaid and IP3 made just $60m in Domestic and OS combined. This will make several times more with Damon in the lead and half the movie in English. A few billion people know his name. Japan embraced The Last Samarai with Cruise. Made $119m in Japan, and more importantly made $400m WW. If it was all local, it too could have made $119m in Japan but would just made $130m WW

Because co-productions don't have good reputation, most of this kind are bad in quality.

15 minutes ago, Polaroids said:

Aren't they marketing this as a Hollywood movie?

 

It would be a shame if it made less than 1B yuan in China which will perhaps be its biggest market. I don't see this doing better in NA or other parts of the world.

No, it's marketed as a local.

[Polaroids]

7 minutes ago, POTUS said:

Why not see a hybrid instead of just Hollywood or a Chinese movie. Local scenery and actors with a big Hollywood budget and top special effects that comes with that budget.

A lot of comments about white people and whitewashing, this production is about  green dollars and euros, peso, rubles and yen. Mermaid and IP3 made just $60m in Domestic and OS combined. This will make several times more with Damon in the lead and half the movie in English. A few billion people know his name. Japan embraced The Last Samarai with Cruise. Made $119m in Japan, and more importantly made $400m WW. If it was all local, it too could have made $119m in Japan but would just made $130m WW

Jason Bourne made around $415 million and that's a popular IP. Do you think TGW will make the same or even more when even the (white) people who attended the test screening hated it? If the Chinese people, who were obviously one of the main targets of the movie, aren't even THAT interested in a mindless mediocre film like this then who will be? Matt Damon is popular but he won't be enough reason for people to watch a strange monster film with what's seeming to be mixed reviews. Both Interstellar and The Martian had good WOM. It might change if TGW gets good reviews but I'm not holding my breath. Interest in this film is very low worldwide and in the US, check out the trailer views and compare the views to other movies. It's just gonna get worse if it comes out and the white savior fears are confirmed and it gets very bad press. 

 

Mermaid might have made just $60m OS but its total gross made more than the movie you listed. 

[Lihongkim]

ZYM again insults chinese history. In "The Flowers of War", a white man saved Chinese from Japan war. And now a group of white men saved China from monster. 

I lost interest when I saw Damon showed his arrow skill to impress Chinese generals. Wtf, I felt quite embarrassed. 

 

It's good to see more coproduction but this story is about the Chinese Great Wall, they should treat C-actor as the most important role. 

 

Chinese movies haven't targeted non-Chinese audience. Their film is very Chinese and mostly adopted from the novel which only well-known by Chinese. That's why C-movie isn't successful in oversea market. 

Edited December 15, 2016 by Lihongkim

[Polaroids]

5 minutes ago, Lihongkim said:

ZYM again insults chinese history. In "The Flowers of War", a white man saved Chinese from Japan war. And now a group of white men saved China from monster. 

I lost interest when I saw Damon showed his arrow skill to impress Chinese generals. Wtf, I felt quite embarrassed. 

 

It's good to see more coproduction but this story is about the Chinese Great Wall, they should treat C-actor as the most important role. 

To be fair to Yimou, a number of white men and women (part of missionaries) were credited to have saved lives during the Nanjing Massacre so his placement of a white man in the story isn't as strange as randomly placing a white man in Ancient China. 

 

I don't think it's been asked or clarified so @Olive, is Matt Damon's character the white savior people suspected him to be or were the trailers misleading?

[Olive]

8 minutes ago, Polaroids said:

To be fair to Yimou, a number of white men and women (part of missionaries) were credited to have saved lives during the Nanjing Massacre so his placement of a white man in the story isn't as strange as randomly placing a white man in Ancient China. 

 

I don't think it's been asked or clarified so @Olive, is Matt Damon's character the white savior people suspected him to be or were the trailers misleading?

I  went to watch the movie without watching any trailers, in the movie people did suspect him ,but he suddenly changed from a mercenary  to a hero.

The run time is very short, the pace of story is really fast.

[POTUS 2020]

46 minutes ago, Polaroids said:

 

Mermaid might have made just $60m OS but its total gross made more than the movie you listed. 

Yes Mermaid was huge locally, but it was an anomaly, and my point was-  the fact that it was so big and still made very little OS. Most successful local tentpoles fall in the $125m-175m range and make little to nothing OS.  TGW may not do Mermaid's WW BO of $550m, but it will certainly surpass that rage by a great deal.  The budget is much bigger and it may not be very profitable, but its reaching a broader WW audience in hoping to open the door for more films down the road

[Olive]

TGW will make $200M WW at most from 170M budget.