China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[Issac Newton]

Sunday

1. Godzilla x Kong The New Empire - ¥92.00M / ¥317.45M
2. Kung Fu Panda 4 - ¥15.50M / ¥245.46M
3. Viva De Vida - ¥11.60M / ¥158.42M
4. The Pig, the Snake and the Pigeon - ¥6.60M / ¥643.24M
5. Anatomy Of The Fall - ¥3.48M / ¥13.44M
6. ⊃∪∩⪽ Part II - ¥3.14M / ¥334.26M
7. Boonie Bears: Time Twist - ¥2.67M / ¥1,975.54M
8. I Miss You - ¥1.20M / ¥207.84M
9. Article 20 - ¥1.08M / ¥2,447.98M
10. Pegasus 2 - ¥1.05M / ¥3,393.05M

[Issac Newton]

The Boy and The Heron

 

OD Forecast

 

¥70.454M @Maoyan

¥74.491M @Taopiaopiao

 

¥72.472M / $10M

 

Wednesday 18:00 Start // OD Pre-Sales exceeded ¥20M (incl. EA)!! 

[tarabeesley]

15 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

The Boy and The Heron

 

OD Forecast

 

¥70.454M @Maoyan

¥74.491M @Taopiaopiao

 

¥72.472M / $10M

 

Wednesday 18:00 Start // OD Pre-Sales exceeded ¥20M (incl. EA)!! 

How much do you think the final gross could be? 70 million? Its presales double Dune and KongvsGodzilla. 

[Issac Newton]

3rd Party projection is at that range. Now what Ticketing Platform like Maoyan & Taopiaopiao project (will be revealed tomorrow) should give us a rough idea

 

Rest is upto audiences 

Edited April 1 by Issac Newton

[tarabeesley]

3 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

3rd Party projection is at that range. Now what Ticketing Platform like Maoyan & Taopiaopiao project (will be revealed tomorrow) should give us a rough idea

 

Rest is upto audiences 

Apparently they are not releasing it on as many screens as the big releases, only 35,000. Is this true? How might this impact its gross? Kong x Godzilla might beat it to number 1. 

[Issac Newton]

Just now, tarabeesley said:

Apparently they are not releasing it on as many screens as the big releases, only 35,000. Is this true? How might this impact its gross? Kong x Godzilla might beat it to number 1. 

 

Film opens on 18:00 - how much shows you can add in 6 hours? Ofc, Heron will have less shows than GxK OD (which open on 09:00). Heron Day 2 Shows > Day 1 Shows

 

Heron (Shows Live Count)

Day 1 - 46K Shows (Prime Time - 31K Shows)

Day 2 - 72K Shows (Prime Time - 17K Shows)

[tarabeesley]

17 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

Film opens on 18:00 - how much shows you can add in 6 hours? Ofc, Heron will have less shows than GxK OD (which open on 09:00). Heron Day 2 Shows > Day 1 Shows

 

Heron (Shows Live Count)

Day 1 - 46K Shows (Prime Time - 31K Shows)

Day 2 - 72K Shows (Prime Time - 17K Shows)

I'm still learning about all this

[Issac Newton]

3 minutes ago, tarabeesley said:

I'm still learning about all this

Sorry (I guess I sounded aggressive).

 

Well, can't help. If Heron was a solo and non-Holidays Release - it would easily have closed to 200K Shows but since it's releasing on holiday with other works so it's about fair play - one with more numbers will start to have edge over one with poorer numbers - 

 

Heron WED 18:00 itself isn't a full day play and its just a warm up session ahead of Qingming Festival starting on next days (3-Days in Total and Sunday will be workday)

 

Atleast a very good positive sign is improved Douban Score with previews lifting it from 7.6 to 8.0 - so maybe (even a little) looking into a good future ahead.

 

Hopefully let's wait and watch -

[tarabeesley]

25 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Sorry (I guess I sounded aggressive).

 

Well, can't help. If Heron was a solo and non-Holidays Release - it would easily have closed to 200K Shows but since it's releasing on holiday with other works so it's about fair play - one with more numbers will start to have edge over one with poorer numbers - 

 

Heron WED 18:00 itself isn't a full day play and its just a warm up session ahead of Qingming Festival starting on next days (3-Days in Total and Sunday will be workday)

 

Atleast a very good positive sign is improved Douban Score with previews lifting it from 7.6 to 8.0 - so maybe (even a little) looking into a good future ahead.

 

Hopefully let's wait and watch -

 

Interesting that Suzume only has a 7.2 rating on Douban and yet it made about 110 million dollars in China. I guess there isn't always a direct correlation between the audience rating and box office gross? 

[Issac Newton]

1 minute ago, tarabeesley said:

 

Interesting that Suzume only has a 7.2 rating on Douban and yet it made about 110 million dollars in China. I guess there isn't always a direct correlation between the audience rating and box office gross? 

Yeah it's true that Ratings ≠ Numbers

 

Diff arises because -

1. Audience is a limited to that film (need rigorous marketing)

2. Bad Release Date

 

If you analyze "Suzume" &"Slam Dunk" - Suzume got 4 weeks of free run while Slam Dunk got only 1 week (next week was Labor Day Holiday release - got badly slam but those works). Suzume got strong support from students where as a good % of Slam Dunk audience were from 30s or above

 

At some cases, ratings just exploded like Dangal &Spirited Away in a way that GOTG2 &Toy Story 4 feel like minor release. and even recent Taiwanese Title "The Pig, the Snake, the Pigeon"

 

Since, the statement holds true. I perhaps believe more in having a good date rather than a well built quality.

[Issac Newton]

If I look into Heron - I have some good sights

1. Opened after GxK instead of March 15
2. A good Marketing with Producer himself visiting for Shanghai Premiere (I don't remember Producer/Miyazaki travelling to any country for Premiere)
3. Got a good release date on Qingming Festival
4. Competition less Month (Strong competitors are straightly opening on Labor Days Holidays)
5. Douban Score has improved on Previews.

[Issac Newton]

March 2024

 

Box Office - ¥2,788M (+46.17% Y/Y)

Admission - 66,949,600 (+36.46% Y/Y)

 

Domestic Films - ¥1,850M (+37.68% Y/Y)

 

21 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

The Boy and The Heron

 

OD Forecast

 

¥70.454M @Maoyan

¥74.491M @Taopiaopiao

 

¥72.472M / $10M

 

Wednesday 18:00 Start // OD Pre-Sales exceeded ¥20M (incl. EA)!! 

The Boy and The Heron (Forecast)

 

@Maoyan 

Wednesday - ¥78.723M (+11.74%)

Thursday - ¥107M

 

@Taopiaopiao

Wednesday - ¥80.593M (+8.19%)

Thursday - ¥110M

[tarabeesley]

9 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

March 2024

 

Box Office - ¥2,788M (+46.17% Y/Y)

Admission - 66,949,600 (+36.46% Y/Y)

 

Domestic Films - ¥1,850M (+37.68% Y/Y)

 

The Boy and The Heron (Forecast)

 

@Maoyan 

Wednesday - ¥78.723M (+11.74%)

Thursday - ¥107M

 

@Taopiaopiao

Wednesday - ¥80.593M (+8.19%)

Thursday - ¥110M

So the 5-day opening could easily exceed 40 million and might even get to 50? It'll be interesting to see.. 

[Issac Newton]

Monday

1. Godzilla x Kong The New Empire - ¥29.30M / ¥346.40M
2. Viva De Vida - ¥5.15M / ¥163.69M
3. The Pig, the Snake and the Pigeon - ¥2.48M / ¥645.69M
4. Kung Fu Panda 4 - ¥2.28M / ¥247.74M
5. Anatomy Of The Fall - ¥1.40M / ¥14.83M
6. ⊃∪∩⪽ Part II - ¥980K / ¥335.20M
7. Article 20 - ¥650K / ¥2,448.70M
8. I Miss You - ¥590K / ¥208.38M
9. Pegasus 2 - ¥540K / ¥3,393.59M
10. Remember Me - ¥440K / ¥97.12M

30 minutes ago, tarabeesley said:

So the 5-day opening could easily exceed 40 million and might even get to 50? It'll be interesting to see.. 

Yeah $40M+ is looking good in sight. Hopefully let it be $50M OW please

[Issac Newton]

YOLO (Overseas)

 

Hong Kong - HK$3,751,278 (Incl. MON - HK$3,973,795)

Malaysia - RM1,611,150 / RM9,879,311 (-52.1%)

North America - $63,482 / $1,882,303 (-46%)

Singapore - SG$296,957 / SG$784,362 (-20.8%)

Australia - A$22,462 / A$887,387 (-49.4%)

New Zealand - NZ$7,509 / NZ$192,434 (-28.2%)

 

Good Hold in Singapore! Crossed "Hi Mom" in Hong Kong &Probably heading for RM 13M+ Final in Malaysia (Crossed RM10M on Monday)

[Issac Newton]

Article 20 (Overseas)

 

North America - $4,338 / $706,463 | -60.0%

Australia - A$419,583 Final

New Zealand - NZ$5,064 / NZ$55,053 | -54.2%

United Kingdom - £98,667 Final

 

£100K in UK didn't happen

[xieh tie]

 

[Issac Newton]

How Do You Live? (The Boy and The Heron)

 

OD / Final Forecast

 

@Maoyan

Wednesday - ¥92.185M (+17.10%)

Thursday - ¥125M (+16.82%)

Friday - ¥94.029M

 

Final - ¥586M / $81M

 

@Taopiaopiao 

Wednesday - ¥90.198M (+11.92%)

Thursday - ¥121M (+10.00%)

Friday - ¥103M

 

Final - ¥573M / $79M

[tarabeesley]

10 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

How Do You Live? (The Boy and The Heron)

 

OD / Final Forecast

 

@Maoyan

Wednesday - ¥92.185M (+17.10%)

Thursday - ¥125M (+16.82%)

Friday - ¥94.029M

 

Final - ¥586M / $81M

 

@Taopiaopiao 

Wednesday - ¥90.198M (+11.92%)

Thursday - ¥121M (+10.00%)

Friday - ¥103M

 

Final - ¥573M / $79M

Do these seem a bit odd? It making 43 million approx in 3 days according to Maoyan but only 81 million for its entire run? 

Edited April 2 by tarabeesley

[Issac Newton]

Sunday is a workday while Saturday will perform like Sunday 

 

Conservative Forecast is better for time being - Let's wait and watch - If numbers holds per forecast then final Projection will improve