China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[Issac Newton]

This take is horrible. Heron just didn't get 4D Release (Can't talk about Screen X since -1 only got Screen X release). It got the same release pattern like Demon Slayer and JJK (though both of them didn't have Dolby at start)

 

Reception is mixed in Japan and that's needed to be accepted. Nothing to do with screen counts.

 

Just to point out Heron was the 1st Studio Ghibli film to release in IMAX and Dolby where Heron broke IMAX record of Demon Slayer. 

[tarabeesley]

45 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

This take is horrible. Heron just didn't get 4D Release (Can't talk about Screen X since -1 only got Screen X release). It got the same release pattern like Demon Slayer and JJK (though both of them didn't have Dolby at start)

 

Reception is mixed in Japan and that's needed to be accepted. Nothing to do with screen counts.

 

Just to point out Heron was the 1st Studio Ghibli film to release in IMAX and Dolby where Heron broke IMAX record of Demon Slayer. 

France, the UK, Italy, Spain and the USA and some others all increased their screen counts after the first week of release. That's all I'm saying.

How is this a horrible take when it is factually correct? 

[Issac Newton]

Because it's incorrect for Japan. You said Japan didn't give more screens in second weekend despite having higher counts than as Demon Slayer and JJK since neither of them have Dolby (8 TC) at Initial Screening or Opening Weekend 

 

Heron - 441 TC (IMAX+Dolby)

JJK - 418 TC (IMAX)

DS: MT - 403 TC (IMAX)

 

It's a already a record OW screens count behind the Conan Films which release on all formats and in Nov, -1 took the widest OW at 522 TC (all PLF available at OW). If only it meant unfair for Heron is not 4DX Screens Expansion later (but I don't think 4DX Screens are any helpful for Heron)

 

This is my last comment on linking Japan Distribution topic in China BO Thread

[ThomasNicole]

It can actually have a shot at 28M USD THU? This is insane 

 

What 5-day opening can we expect at this point? 80M?

 

WOM seems strong

[fmpro]

14 hours ago, tarabeesley said:

How can you see these? Can you send a website link please? 

Just fint their app. Maoyan Pro. Its red/white with cat logo

[Issac Newton]

25 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

It can actually have a shot at 28M USD THU? This is insane 

 

What 5-day opening can we expect at this point? 80M?

 

WOM seems strong

More like $25M now. It just passed the today's Target/forecast of ¥160M / $22M now. So $14M WED + $25M THU = $39M in 2-Days

 

I am seeing an $70M+ 5-Days Debut now 

[Issac Newton]

2024 Qingming Festival Day 1 has just crossed All-Time Day 1 QF Record of 2021 (¥320M)

 

Edited April 4 by Issac Newton
Adding Image

[efialtes76]

9.0 at Maoyan isn't very good for an animation movie.

[Issac Newton]

Heron has already mobilised 7M admits (Japan - 6.25M admits)

[Issac Newton]

Overall Market reached ¥351M as of 21:00

 

Listing "The Boy and The Heron" Records

 

— Biggest Single Day BO for Qingming Festival Release, defeating "Ready Player One" (¥164M) recorded back in 2018!

— Biggest Single Day BO for Imported Animation, defeating "Frozen II" (¥167M) recorded back in Nov 2019!

— Biggest Single Day BO for Japanese Film, defeating "Suzume" (¥153M) recorded back in March 2023!

Edited April 4 by Issac Newton

[tarabeesley]

24 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

¥351M as of 21:00

 

Listing "The Boy and The Heron" Records

 

— Biggest Single Day BO for Qingming Festival Release, defeating "Ready Player One" (¥164M) recorded back in 2018!

— Biggest Single Day BO for Imported Animation, defeating "Frozen II" (¥167M) recorded back in Nov 2019!

— Biggest Single Day BO for Japanese Film, defeating "Suzume" (¥153M) recorded back in March 2023!

So that's 48 m so far already after two days?! How can it be that much? Wow.  

[Issac Newton]

4 minutes ago, tarabeesley said:

So that's 48 m so far already after two days?! How can it be that much? Wow.  

Sorry, that's incorrect. I was talking about Overall Market reached ¥351M as of 21:00 which is an all-time record (Prev. Record was hold by 2021 with ¥320M).

 

I should have separated both the post. Sorry, I created confusion

Edited April 4 by Issac Newton

[Issac Newton]

The Boy and The Heron

 

5-Days Forecast - $75M Maoyan / $79M TTP

 

@Maoyan

Friday - ¥145M

Saturday - ¥90M

Sunday - ¥22.5M

 

Final - ¥760M / $105M

 

@Taopiaopiao

Friday - ¥153M

Saturday - ¥100M

Sunday - ¥37M

 

Final - ¥762M / $105M

[Issac Newton]

 

I was calculating multiple times if I am missing something. 

 

@JustLurking @Flip I guess I should have make a club on this

[SchumacherFTW]

Not expecting much in the way of legs eh? 

[Issac Newton]

Just now, SchumacherFTW said:

Not expecting much in the way of legs eh? 

Yeah like I hope we can prove those AI machines wrong

[Issac Newton]

Thursday - Qingming Festival

1. The Boy and The Heron - ¥181.00M / ¥280.35M
2. Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire - ¥102.00M / ¥512.04M
3. Dwelling by the West Lake - ¥19.85M / ¥30.63M
4. The Victims ! - ¥17.60M / ¥28.41M
5. Kung Fu Panda 4 - ¥16.30M / ¥269.23M
6. Viva De Vida - ¥9.65M / ¥182.62M
7. Super Villain - ¥8.20M / ¥8.32M
8. The Snow Queen &The Princess - ¥3.85M 
9. Boonie Bears: Time Twist - ¥2.12M / ¥1,978.12M
10. Dune Part II - ¥1.55M / ¥338.72M

[tarabeesley]

36 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Not expecting much in the way of legs eh? 

Yes to say it'll gross 75 - 79 mil opening but 105 mil overall seems very odd.

Suzume had a 50 mil opening and ended up with 112 overall.

 

I would expect if Heron grosses 75 mil it could gross up to 140 to 150 mil overall. 

 

Those predictions are AI generated?

Edited April 4 by tarabeesley

[Issac Newton]

Highest Grossing Japanese Film in Mainland China

 

Ignore from 42~50 - awaiting release/yet to be release

 

Heron will be 4th Highest Grossing Japanese Film by Sunday (if forecast holds)

 

My only concern is dropping Douban - 7.8 (-0.2) &Maoyan just fell by a spot - 8.9 (-0.1). TTP is still holding at 9.4

 

Hopefully competition less month should favor Heron at the end

 

[Issac Newton]

 

Interestingly Heron is doing more numbers in 5-Days then what major analysts expected it in lifetime (even lower)