Weekend #s Hobbit 84.7 ROG 7.4 Linc 7.2 Sky 7.0 Pi 5.4 BD2 5.2 pg 90

[Fake]

The THR article says "Box office observers...".

The excuses are not limited to this forum evidently.

[Fake]

I don't think anyone needs to worry about TH crossing 300 mil, that will happen.

Depends on how big the Sunday gross is.

[Alpha]

I`m sorry but who are you? I don`t recall ever seeing you on BOF before. I see that you made about 1000 messages none of them that I remember and I bet they are all recent TH-related.

LOL, I'm actually etr906, the host of the election coverage. Changed my name to Alpha, then Alpha the Foxbot.And no, I'm not a LOTR fanboy. I'm an accurate box office analyst

[kayumanggi]

The excuses are not limited to this forum evidently.

What? These box office observers are not from WB. Why would they make excuses?

[Alpha]

If TH follows the pace of Avatar (which seems like a possibility considering many people waiting until Saturday or Sunday), then TH would earn $106.5 million in it's opening weekend. Add all the multipliers in store for it, and $400 million does not seem impossible.

[Fake]

What? These box office observers are not from WB. Why would they make excuses?

Either because it didn't match their predictions or because they can't comprehend the big drop in admissions.

[kayumanggi]

If TH follows the pace of Avatar (which seems like a possibility considering many people waiting until Saturday or Sunday), then TH would earn $106.5 million in it's opening weekend. Add all the multipliers in store for it, and $400 million does not seem impossible.

Sorry. No.

[kayumanggi]

Either because it didn't match their predictions or because they can't comprehend the big drop in admissions.

That's absurd.

[lab276]

It can miss 300m with average legs.

Whilst there's a chance, I really don't think it's possible. It's certainly a lot more family friendly than IAL and even Tron Legacy. I keep brining them up but they are relevant comparisons. Even with Sherlock 2s multi, it would reach near $400m and that film was hardly exceptional in any way and it had to compete with MI4.Though I expect it to land around $320m (with an $80-85m OW).

[Alpha]

Sorry. No.

Why?EDIT: I think that some people were underwhelmed by TH, so yeah, $106M is the most. But $85M the least. Anywhere in that range. Edited December 15, 2012 by Alpha The Foxbot

[baumer]

If TH follows the pace of Avatar (which seems like a possibility considering many people waiting until Saturday or Sunday), then TH would earn $106.5 million in it's opening weekend. Add all the multipliers in store for it, and $400 million does not seem impossible.

Avatar didnt do 13 mill at midnight.

[lab276]

Why?

Different time of month, less fan driven etc...

[Fake]

If TH follows the pace of Avatar (which seems like a possibility considering many people waiting until Saturday or Sunday), then TH would earn $106.5 million in it's opening weekend. Add all the multipliers in store for it, and $400 million does not seem impossible.

All the movies you could compare it with and you choose Avatar?And no, it won't yield 106.5m. Avatar jumped 10% on Saturday from Friday excluding midnights. If TH1 does the same it will do around 26.5m on Saturday.And Avatar stayed flat on Sunday because holidays had started. TH1 will drop around 35%, as is normal for this week. So 17m Sunday.Overall 80m weekend.

[Alpha]

Avatar didnt do 13 mill at midnight.

Yes. Avatar did $3 million. And TH earned $13 million. What exactly is your point?

[Alpha]

All the movies you could compare it with and you choose Avatar?And no, it won't yield 106.5m. Avatar jumped 10% on Saturday from Friday excluding midnights. If TH1 does the same it will do around 26.5m on Saturday.And Avatar stayed flat on Sunday because holidays had started. TH1 will drop around 35%, as is normal for this week. So 17m Sunday.Overall 80m weekend.

LOL, that was Christmas weekend. I based my expectations on opening weekend.Also, Avatar fell 3-4 percent on opening. TH could drop that much. So $106.5 million is the ceiling. Edited December 15, 2012 by Alpha The Foxbot

[Fake]

LOL, that was Christmas weekend. I based my expectations on opening weekend.

ummm.... what? I am also basing it on Avatar's OW.

[RthDeadWov]

The last update from nikki H1 37m will be in right ball park it did play out like THG on tracking data,lincoln more like 2m

[baumer]

Fake explained it. My point is you have to take the 13 away from the 37m. That is the real Friday number so if you increase by 20 percent today at the most you're only getting 2 about 29 mill. Even giving it a small 22 percent drop on Sunday you still have only about 85 now

[Fake]

LOL, that was Christmas weekend. I based my expectations on opening weekend.Also, Avatar fell 3-4 percent on opening. TH could drop that much. So $106.5 million is the ceiling.

As I told you before, Avatar's opening Sunday fell on 20th.... TH1 will fall on 16th.... big difference.

[baumer]

Alpha you are using the wrong film to compare it to and the wrong weekend. Its not going to jump 20% from 37 but from 24 mill.