fishstick Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 No one is calling The Hobbit a flop.true that. They call it Flopbit and Floppit bit not a flop. But to say it isn't a disappointment is pure spin. No ways around it.I don`t know why industry sites are so cautious about calling TH`s big drop out but at least Deadline Hollywood seems really quiet in that department. Even Nikki`s readers are going "how come that gigantic drop on froday didn`t get more exposure?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJohn Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Next weekend it will have a good hold. Take a look at the same weekend in 2007:http://boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2007&wknd=52&p=.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishstick Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Compared to expectations we had, sure. Except those expectations don't really mean anything, especially when the movie still makes 850m. I could have predicted 1.3 billion for Skyfall... with the same logic, that would make it a 'disappointment' to me, no?You couldn`t have predicted $1.3 billion for Skyfall because that number had nowhere to come from. What was the most a Bond movie made, $700 mio? And it never even broke $200 mio dom let alone had a shot at $300 mio. So Skyfall boxoffice blew past expectations. True, it had an advantage that nobody expected it to crush SH2, TA or even Avatar, but there was no reason to expect numbers like that in no small measure because Skyfall does not have 3D premium.OTOH, even though rational BOFers disagreed, there was tons of TH predictions going ROTK + 3D + inflation = _______(insert a number that claims to blow past another movie from a rival franchise) and predix going "if _______ could make ______ than TH will make so much more." And lets be honest, when the studio agreed with PJ to split the movies there were many who claimed it showed studio`s confidence in the product. So, yes, expectations on both sides (fanboys and PJ/WB) were sky-high and aren`t met. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Skyfall should hit 1 Billion by next weekend. DOM will be around 290M while OS should cross 710M. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 it is 57% down. better than forecast but another 45% drop next week will finish itIt's a disappointment but it's not going to have anywhere near a 45% drop next weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Next weekend it will have a good hold. Take a look at the same weekend in 2007:http://boxofficemojo...&wknd=52&p=.htmIt'll be a close race to #1 next week. 3 movies could potentially take it. Hobbit, Les Mis, and Django (I'm iffy on this one though. Especially with the gun violence being all over the news, I'm not sure if Audiences will be slightly put off by this or not.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishstick Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 (edited) It'll be a close race to #1 next week. 3 movies could potentially take it. Hobbit, Les Mis, and Django (I'm iffy on this one though. Especially with the gun violence being all over the news, I'm not sure if Audiences will be slightly put off by this or not.)TH has way too many theaters so it needs to have some empty for Les Mis and/or Django PTA to make up for their release in far fewer theaters.I just want the industry to attack TH`s boxoffice vulnerability next year and in 2014 with a really strong competition. C`mon studios, there`s nothing to be affraid of anymore. This isn`t a critical or a boxoffice juggernaut. C`mon, take it down! Take it down! Edited December 23, 2012 by fishnets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 It's a lesson for us, then. The "3D + inflation + big name franchise = record-breaking box office" reasoning is risky because audiences don't always turn up for sequels to movies they've seen. Point is, I can't imagine WB being discouraged by 850m from the first movie. They could approach a cumulative 3 billion dollars worldwide on this trilogy off of a <1 billion investment, not to mention auxiliary revenue streams. As a business investment, of course The Hobbit was worth it. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moviedweeb Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 Also, I don't get this angry stigma towards Apatow regarding how he makes movies about upper-middle class white people that I just started seeing this month. What the hell does it matter what class or race of people he makes movies about? The argument about self-indulgence and casting the same people (mainly his family) is semi-legitimate, but complaining about race/class is just ridiculous.It is more that people don't want to hear about first-world problems but that doesn't mean someone shouldn't make a movie addressing them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 TH1 is locked for 900m WW BTW with a shot at 1B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 It's a lesson for us, then. The "3D + inflation + big name franchise = record-breaking box office" reasoning is risky because audiences don't always turn up for sequels to movies they've seen. I see the same thing happening right now with IM3 and MU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
htall90 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 People got ahead of themselves with TH and should of remember it was still a prequel and prequels always have lower then expected box office gross. Still i can't how WB spent so much on the first one $270 mil on production alone? Surely a combined $500 mil budget for both films the 2nd one would have a bigger budget to go with the appearance of Smaug and everything in general being on a grander scale? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishstick Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 It's a lesson for us, then. The "3D + inflation + big name franchise = record-breaking box office" reasoning is risky because audiences don't always turn up for sequels to movies they've seen.Point is, I can't imagine WB being discouraged by 850m from the first movie. They could approach a cumulative 3 billion dollars worldwide on this trilogy off of a <1 billion investment, not to mention auxiliary revenue streams. As a business investment, of course The Hobbit was worth it.Oh, they won`t be discouraged but serves them right that it isn`t making the kind of money they projected. It simply isn`t the shit anymore but just one of many very successful franchises that oversaturate the market. It`s a goodf business investment. It just isn`t trumping everything on its path.IMO, Skyfall is a great example of why its fortunes changed this way and why TH is doing a regular blockbuster business but nothing extraordinary. Skyfall grew with the marketplace, and delivered the kind of movie that is "in" now. Instead of being a clone of Brosnan movies that worked over a decade ago. TH is just a LOTR clone, made as if 2012 is 2002. That`s a problem. 2012 isn`t 2002 and tastes and market changed since. You don`t have to radically change the style but you can reinvent yourself and make the old story seem fresh and appealing to modern sensibilities. TH`s just too 10 years ago plus redundancy and less important story. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Still i can't how WB spent so much on the first one $270 mil on production alone? Surely a combined $500 mil budget for both films the 2nd one would have a bigger budget to go with the appearance of Smaug and everything in general being on a grander scale?Since it was just one big production, we don't really have any breakdown of numbers on what each movie specifically cost -- nor do I think we'll get it. Just think of it (and the others) as costing one lump sum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
htall90 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Oh right i see yh that makes sense but it does make sense that spend more on the 2nd one as sequels often cost more due to more action and cgi effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I still say that the decision to split it in 3 parts was the biggest mistake. If TH1 was the first of two, it would have more story, less drag, better reception, better WOM and better box office collections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Oh right i see yh that makes sense but it does make sense that spend more on the 2nd one as sequels often cost more due to more action and cgi effects.But since it was one giant production, you can't separate that out artificially. One day they might be shooting scenes from Film 1, the next day they're shooting stuff from Film 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I still say that the decision to split it in 3 parts was the biggest mistake. If TH1 was the first of two, it would have more story, less drag, better reception, better WOM and better box office collections.In the long run, I think WB still makes more from a trilogy (even though it wasn't their idea). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 TH has way too many theaters so it needs to have some empty for Les Mis and/or Django PTA to make up for their release in far fewer theaters.I just want the industry to attack TH`s boxoffice vulnerability next year and in 2014 with a really strong competition. C`mon studios, there`s nothing to be affraid of anymore. This isn`t a critical or a boxoffice juggernaut. C`mon, take it down! Take it down!TH already has a lot of empty showings. I'm thinking Les Mis at 30+ million, Hobbit at 29, and Django at 27/28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishstick Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Gosh, Tuesday can`t come soon enough. i`m desperate to see Les Mis and my man Leo as a bone fide villain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
