Weekend numbers thread (close between TH and DU 31.5-31 so far)

[Dementeleus]

Look back in the top ten of 2012 predictions thread and watch the Hobbit predictions, some of which were over 500 million, and most of which were over 400. Compared to those expectations, it's a certain disappointment. But compared to pre release hype, reviews, and market competition, it's still certainly doing solid for itself. It's just that if you said these numbers were 'solid' six months ago, Hobbit fans would call you a hater or loon.

Loonies imagine an optimistic scenario and go from there. Haters assume a pessimistic scenario and go from there. Reality determines who ends up being closer. With TH1, the optimistic scenario was critical reception and buzz near LOTR levels, and the movie essentially playing like another chapter in the saga. The pessimistic scenario was weaker reviews and it playing more like a spinoff. In this case, it's obvious who was more correct.

[Jack Nevada]

Could the next Hobbit movie end up rotten? Or will it be better?

[fishstick]

Yep.

Do you get to vote? I hope not because you`ve seen only one movie this season so you`d naturally vote for that even thought it wouldn`t be fair.

[Cmasterclay]

Loonies imagine an optimistic scenario and go from there. Haters assume a pessimistic scenario and go from there. Reality determines who ends up being closer.With TH1, the optimistic scenario was critical reception and buzz near LOTR levels, and the movie essentially playing like another chapter in the saga. The pessimistic scenario was weaker reviews and it playing more like a spinoff. In this case, it's obvious who was more correct.

Esta cierto. I don't think that you had to be a hater to assume that pessimistic scenario, though.

[Dementeleus]

Do you get to vote? I hope not because you`ve seen only one movie this season so you`d naturally vote for that even thought it wouldn`t be fair.

I'm not in the Academy but I do vote in one of the guild awards. (And I *have* seen more than one movie this season. )

[Dementeleus]

Esta cierto. I don't think that you had to be a hater to assume that pessimistic scenario, though.

I should've put "loonie" and "hater" in quotes -- I think those terms are kinda silly.

[fishstick]

Loonies imagine an optimistic scenario and go from there. Haters assume a pessimistic scenario and go from there. Reality determines who ends up being closer.With TH1, the optimistic scenario was critical reception and buzz near LOTR levels, and the movie essentially playing like another chapter in the saga. The pessimistic scenario was weaker reviews and it playing more like a spinoff. In this case, it's obvious who was more correct.

I wouldn`t call the "pessimistic scenario supporters" haters. Many of them were quite indiferent to LOTR, neither too much love nor too much hate, unlike loonies who were Best Movies Evah type of stubborn. Also, I wouldn`t call pessimistic scenario pessimistic but realistic.

[Dementeleus]

I wouldn`t call the "pessimistic scenario supporters" haters. Many of them were quite indiferent to LOTR, neither too much love nor too much hate, unlike loonies who were Best Movies Evah type of stubborn. Also, I wouldn`t call pessimistic scenario pessimistic but realistic.

Like I said, loonies and haters are silly terms. And of course the pessimistic scenario is realistic, that's how it turned out!

[fishstick]

Like I said, loonies and haters are silly terms. And of course the pessimistic scenario is realistic, that's how it turned out!

I wouldn`t say that loony is a silly term in this case. Not at all. Making predictions such as "if OST and DH1 can make $800 mio and $950 mio OS than TH is a lock for $1.2 billion OS", "if DH2 can make $1.3 mio WW than TH is a lock for at least $1.5 billion because it`ll make over a billion OS alone", "if TA can make it than TH will top it WW and OS" are loony bin. And those were arguments that TH fans considered reasonable while suggestions that TH may not top Shriekapoo were dismissed as hater talk. Edited December 30, 2012 by fishnets

[Elessar]

The Hobbit will be the #5 movie of the year domestically? I don't think anyone saw that coming...

#4 is still very much possible. The odds were always in favor of TDKR to win and after the performance of TA, #1 was out of the question anyway. Nobody had THG that high on their list, though. So really, Hobbit might be just one place lower than many anticipated after July.

[fishstick]

TA really threw a monkey wrench into over predictions. TH was overpredicted before TA breakout but after that nothing seemed big enough for TH.

[Elessar]

TA didn't change anything.

[Dementeleus]

TA really threw a monkey wrench into over predictions. TH was overpredicted before TA breakout but after that nothing seemed big enough for TH.

I think that's generally true, in terms of predictions across the board now. Maybe the results of TDKR and TH will temper predictions back to normal.

[fishstick]

TA changed the movies as we know them. It`s a real game changer and Marvel tying individual movies to build up a team one is a major undertaking. Towering achivement that movie is.

[Fake]

Loonies imagine an optimistic scenario and go from there. Haters assume a pessimistic scenario and go from there. Reality is: Fake is always right.

Fixed.

[fishstick]

I think that's generally true, in terms of predictions across the board now. Maybe the results of TDKR and TH will temper predictions back to normal.

Agreed.

[fishstick]

Fixed.

[John Marston]

I predicted only 350m domestic for Hobbit. Overseas is where I predicted gigantic numbers and I have no regret in feeling that way. The potential was there.

[baumer]

I don't think the long term prospects are good for any of the films; if the country goes over the fiscal cliff, then our taxes are going waaaay up. Means not enough attention for moviegoing.

It's just the opposite. The more dire the country is, the more money is spent on movies. And that's a fact.

[Elessar]

I wouldn`t say that loony is a silly term in this case. Not at all. Making predictions such as "if OST and DH1 can make $800 mio and $950 mio OS than TH is a lock for $1.2 billion OS", "if DH2 can make $1.3 mio WW than TH is a lock for at least $1.5 billion because it`ll make over a billion OS alone", "if TA can make it than TH will top it WW and OS" are loony bin. And those were arguments that TH fans considered reasonable while suggestions that TH may not top Shriekapoo were dismissed as hater talk.

OS numbers of a billion or a tad above were thrown around but (almost - just in case you find one) nobody thought of them as locks.