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39 minutes ago, druv10 said:

Bluebomb, if CW hits 17M, where does that place it on the alltime list?

Ultron is No. 2 on the all time list with about $17.15M I believe. So Bluebomb is predicting CW to match that. 

 

Avatar is no.1 with ~$22M btw. 

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Opening Day/Weekend Captain America 3 Pre-sales

IMAX

Captain America 3 is 70% full during peak times. It is not packing the same punch that Avengers 2 or even Iron Man 3 did but Captain America 3 at 70% capacity with these expensive prices will gross more money than Avengers 2 did at maximum capacity.

Image

Broadway

No issues here. Even the rural areas are doing quite well.

If we take a closer look at opening day pre-sales at Palace APM, we can see how big CA3 really is.
 
Palace APM        
  Captain America 2 (all v.)    
Day Time Seats sold Seats available % filled
Mar. 24 10:45 AM 118 286 41.26%
  11:20 AM 37 167 22.16%
  11:40 AM 25 114 21.93%
  1:00 PM 25 98 25.51%
  1:30 PM 42 286 14.69%
  2:00 PM 10 167 5.99%
  2:25 PM 6 114 5.26%
  3:05 PM 5 98 5.10%
  3:45 PM 6 98 6.12%
  4:15 PM 77 286 26.92%
  4:45 PM 17 167 10.18%
  5:10 PM 4 114 3.51%
  5:50 PM 4 98 4.08%
  6:30 PM 12 98 12.24%
  7:00 PM 166 286 58.04%
  7:10 PM 36 112 32.14%
  7:30 PM 58 167 34.73%
  7:55 PM 44 114 38.60%
  8:35 PM 42 98 42.86%
  9:15 PM 36 98 36.73%
  9:45 PM 138 286 48.25%
  9:55 PM 26 112 23.21%
  10:15 PM 18 167 10.78%
  10:40 PM 17 114 14.91%
  11:20 PM 18 98 18.37%
  12:00 AM 4 98 4.08%
  12:30 AM 37 286 12.94%
Total   1028 4227 24.32%
Overall, Captain America 3 is playing very well here. Not quite as robust as The Avengers 2 but that was to be expected. Captain America 3 has a leg up on Avengers 2 in pricing so admissions do not have to be as good to tie in gross.

Captain America 3's afternoon looks quite depressing but nighttime is surprisingly stronger than expected. All nighttime showings before midnight have at least 10% capacity and the 11:20 pm showtime has the same number of tickets as the 10:15 showtime which is shocking. Midnight is also going along strong. Morning shows are decent.

Scheduling

Broadway

It is getting at least 4 screens everywhere or more. An...oh wait, what's this?

Image
The red boxes are back. That means Captain America 3 has taken all of the showtimes at night! It annihilated everything.

UA

There seems to be something weird going on. On Wednesday, Captain America 3 is surprisingly muted with showtimes being given to random movies here or there. Well, that all changes on Thursday as Captain America 3's showtime count is upped from Wednesday. Why? Probably because this theater chain is honoring their contractual obligations and waiting until the traditional Thursday to axe films, however, if Broadway can give most of the showtimes to Captain America 3 on Wednesday then why can't UA? From 3 UA theaters, Wednesday's showtime count for the 3 combined is only 34 but Thursday more than doubles Wednesday's showtime number with 79! One theater even added 16 more showtimes on Thursday and almost tripled its Wednesday showtimes.

Some theaters are scheduling a total blackout of Captain America 3 on Thursday. We could see an increase on Thursday as a result of this development.
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Wednesday admissions (so far)

1. Captain America 3 - 32,933
 

Movie OD pre-sales adm. % diff
Captain America 3 32,933  
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice 38,002 -13.3%
Deadpool 44,218 -25.5%
Star Wars: The Force Awakens 30,870 +6.7%
Avengers: Age of Ultron 3D 47,647 -30.9%
Transformers: Age of Extinction 30,850 +6.8%
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 54,986 -40.1%
Captain America 2 13,794 +138.7%
Monsters University 34,005 -3.2%
Man of Steel 12,350 +166.7%
Iron Man 3 46,074 -28.5%
Iron Man 2 31,977 +3.0%
The Dark Knight Rises 38,750 -15.0%
The Amazing Spider-Man 32,580 +1.1%
The Avengers 47,317 -30.4%
Transformers 3 44,161 -25.4%
Harry Potter 7-2 62,089 -47.0%
Toy Story 3 32,294 +2.0%
Pirates 4 21,559 +52.8%
Shrek 3 49,634 -33.6%
The Hobbit 18,440 +78.6%
Mission Impossible 4 24,390 +35.0%

Captain America 3's OD is not as big as The Avengers or Iron Man 3 but that is a fine start. It's doing about 75% of The Avengers 2's admissions which is darn good. For Captain America 3 to take down The Avengers 2's OW, it only has to do it in 5 days. Though it is a tall task, Captain America 3 has pricing on its side. Batman v Superman's OW is going down. Batman v Superman's OD was inflated by Good Friday while CA3 is a Wednesday opening.

That Captain America 3 opening day pre-sales number trumps both Captain America 1 and 2 final opening day admissions. Add in the extra day plus the insane surcharges slapped on and I can't see it making less than double CA2's opening weekend. The only thing stopping it are the reviews but superhero films are quite infallible on opening weekend. Reviews for Civil War look very strong so it looks like full steam ahead for Captain America 3 here.

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Bluebomb, I think you know but it's still needed to be said. You're awesome! Always prompt and detailed updates with good analysis. 

 

CA3 is looking strong. I hope it'll keep up over the weekend to match your prediction. 

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Opening morning reviews have trickled in and word of mouth looks amazing. Captain America 3 is at a 4.8/5 so far. Usually opening morning audience is the most fickle of all audiences so this is an excellent sign that Captain America 3 will play very well.
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Wednesday admissions

Captain America 3 - 51,731

To put this opening day admissions number in prespective, that is 1/3 of CA's OW admissions and 1/4 of CA2's OW admissions...and we are not even inside the traditional 4 day weekend yet.

Captain America 3 OD estimate - $1,029,446

That would rank 4th biggest opening day of all time behind The Avengers 2, Amazing Spider-Man 2 and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice.
 
  Thursday adm. (so far)   April 28
Rank Movie > LW TW % chg
1 Captain America: Civil War -- 28,999 --
2 Zootopia 630 205 -67.5%
3 The Boy 340 179 -47.4%
4 Hardcore Henry 561 108 -80.7%
5 Trivisa 323 106 -67.2%
6 Mustang -- 103 --
7 Port of Call -- 79 --
8 Collective Invention -- 78 --
9 10 Cloverfield Lane 801 70 -91.3%
10 Eddie the Eagle -- 67 --
Captain America 3 is off about 12% from yesterday's pre-sales, however it can easily be rectified with strong walk-ins. This seems poised to maybe break even or fall just a scant 1 or 2% today in admissions.

Side-by-side comparison of Captain America 3's Opening Saturday/Sunday at Palace APM
Palace APM                  
  Captain America 3 (all v.)       Captain America 3 (all v.)    
Day Time Seats sold Seats available % filled Day Time Seats sold Seats available % filled
Apr. 30 11:15 AM 179 286 62.59% May 1 11:15 AM 198 286 69.23%
  2:00 PM 98 286 34.27%   2:00 PM 100 286 34.97%
  4:45 PM 149 286 52.10%   4:45 PM 85 286 29.72%
  7:30 PM 138 286 48.25%   7:30 PM 94 286 32.87%
  10:15 PM 81 286 28.32%   10:15 PM 28 286 9.79%
Total   645 1430 45.10% Total   505 1430 35.31%
Very strong for Captain America 3 on both days. This will surge on Saturday/Sunday like previous Captain America films did on their opening weekends. I could see something like 110-120k. It definitely won't beat the previous single day admissions record by Transformers 3 (157k) but it should do monstrous numbers.
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Opening day reviews are coming in fast for Captain America 3 with over 100 reviews sent in so far. Its score is at a sparkling 4.7/5, currently ahead of Zootopia's 4.7.

People might think tentpole films are ridiculously overrated when it first comes out but that is not the case. Batman v Superman started in the 3's (ended at mid 3), Transformers 4 began in the low 3's (finished with a low 3), The Avengers 2, I believe, began with a high 3 (finished with a low 4). It seems that while many are Marvel fans, they won't blindly rate films because it's just Marvel or a superhero film (although some do but not enough to alter the general sentiment about the film).

Wednesday rankings (no gross)

1. CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR (45 theaters)
2. The Boy (17 theaters)
3. ZOOTOPIA (20 theaters)
4. TRIVISA (21 theaters)
5. Buddy Cops (24 theaters)
6. My Wife Is A Superstar (27 theaters)
7. Hardcore Henry (20 theaters)
8. The Dressmaker (8 theaters)
9. The Kid From The Big Apple (8 theaters)
10. Port of Call (4 theaters)
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2 hours ago, Olive said:

cinetel says 7.34M OD for CW, he also says BVS only made 7.21M on OD.

I don't think so. I find cinetel's numbers to be grossly underestimated. For me, Inside Out was notoriously underestimated all the time and Star Wars 7 too on cinetel. I find Ryan's blog to be much better though sometimes numbers can be way off but it's more like 80-85% accurate while Cinetel's may only be 10% accurate.

 

Using Cinetel's number, I extracted the multiplier from BvS's opening day to extrapolate BvS's opening weekend and it comes in at only $4.048m. That is if the multiplier is static and does not change the entire weekend. That weekend, however, saw many theaters move Batman v Superman into 2D on Saturday and Sunday which affected its multiplier by a lot. If we applied the changes in multiplier on Saturday/Sunday to BvS, it would have been estimated at $3.773m, a difference of over $400,000 from actuals. Batman v Superman ended up grossing $4.235m and from estimates, it came in about $115,000 lower. This is why I don't use cinetel anymore. It is simply inaccurate.

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Quote

In [...] and Hong Kong ($1.1 million), Civil War scored the No. 3 opening of all time.

I think we can shed using cinetel as a source from now on, Olive.

 

That figure means that Civil War did over 90% of Captain America's OW gross and nearly 50% of Captain America: The Winter Soldier's gross in just 1 day. There are still 4 more days to go. Now not only is the #1 OW of all time looking very likely, 7m OW is looking like a bigger possibility with each passing hour.

 

  Top 15 Opening Days    
Rank Movie US Gross HK Gross
1 Avengers: Age of Ultron $1,242,606 $9,611,044
2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 $1,233,114 $9,560,768
3 Captain America 3* $1,101,841 $8,500,000
4 Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice* $1,067,927 $8,300,000
5 Spider-Man 3 $974,580 $7,556,265
6 Transformers: Age of Extinction $973,956 $7,550,000
7 Pirates of the Caribbean 3 $869,176 $6,800,000
8 Iron Man 3 $851,192 $6,614,837
9 Harry Potter 7-2 $821,324 $6,368,018
10 The Avengers $779,647 $6,044,881
11 Deadpool $753,891 $5,848,267
12 The Martian* $750,000 $5,817,917
13 Transformers 3 $741,998 $5,752,975
14 The Dark Knight Rises $666,307 $5,166,114
15 Jurassic World $663,438 $5,118,000

* - estimate only

Captain America 3 grabs the #3 OD of all time behind only The Avengers 2 and The Amazing Spider-Man 2! Incredible.

 

  Thursday     April 28
Rank Movie LW TW % chg
1 Captain America: Civil War -- 45,426 --
2 Zootopia 2,372 768 -67.6%
3 Trivisa 1,893 740 -60.9%
4 The Boy 1,654 711 -57.0%
5 Port of Call 538 402 -25.3%
6 10 Cloverfield Lane 2,617 254 -90.3%
7 Mustang -- 205 --
8 Collective Invention -- 175 --
9 The Dressmaker -- 172 --
10 Eddie the Eagle -- 169 --

Strong performance for Captain America 3. It decreased by 12% on Thursday which isn't that bad. Zootopia fended off a strong charge from Trivisa and The Boy for #2, which surprised on its 2nd weekend. Port of Call had an excellent hold. In other news, Batman v Superman was down 94% from last Thursday's admissions (which included the dead IMAX showings).

 

  Friday adm. (so far)     April 29
Rank Movie LW TW WKD % chg QD % chg
1 Captain America: Civil War -- 40,426 -- +39.4%
2 Zootopia 1,148 348 -69.7% +69.8%
3 The Boy 549 266 -51.5% +48.6%
4 Trivisa 448 193 -56.9% +82.1%
5 10 Cloverfield Lane 1,072 184 -82.8% +162.9%
6 The Dressmaker -- 112 -- --
7 Eddie the Eagle -- 94 -- +40.3%
8 Port of Call 375 86 -77.1% +8.9%
8 The Kid from the Big Apple -- 86 -- --
10 Collective Invention -- 85 -- +21.4%
10 Truth -- 85 -- --

Encouraging sign for Captain America 3. It increased by almost 12,000 admissions in pre-sales on Friday and Saturday's pre-sales will see another huge bump upward.

 

 

Edited by Bluebomb
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    Thursday Actuals           April 28
LW TW Movie Last Thu. (USD) Thu. (USD) % chg Theaters Days Total
-- 1 Captain America: Civil War -- $904,823 -- 46 2 $2,006,664
1 2 Zootopia $27,071 $10,340 -61.8% 24 36 $6,346,690
3 3 The Boy $23,203 $9,694 -58.2% 15 8 $206,816
5 4 Trivisa $21,270 $8,660 -59.3% 21 22 $1,111,640
9 5 Port of Call $6,563 $4,524 -31.1% 6 148 $497,652
2 6 10 Cloverfield Lane $26,039 $3,619 -86.1% 10 15 --
-- 7 Collective Invention -- $2,843 -- 5 1 $2,714
-- 8 The Dressmaker -- -- -- 4 8 --
RE 9 Eddie the Eagle -- -- -- 8 29 --
6 10 My Wife is a Superstar $20,435 -- -- 10 8 --
Excellent for Captain America 3. Yeah, it fell by almost 20% on Thursday but it's still a huge number. Not that terrible for Zootopia, The Boy and Trivisa. Port of Call had another stellar hold.
 
  Friday       April 29
Rank Movie LW TW WKD % chg QD % chg
1 Captain America: Civil War -- 57,977 -- +27.6%
2 Zootopia 4,077 1,095 -73.1% +42.6%
3 The Boy 2,168 891 -58.9% +25.3%
4 Trivisa 2,577 871 -66.2% +17.7%
5 10 Cloverfield Lane 3,679 371 -89.9% +46.1%
6 Port of Call 862 326 -62.2% -18.9%
7 Eddie the Eagle -- 316 -- +87.0%
8 Collective Invention -- 222 -- +29.1%
9 The Dressmaker -- 210 -- +24.3%
10 Truth -- 205 -- --
Very good for Captain America 3.

3-day estimate: $3.159m
 
  Saturday adm. (so far)     April 30
Rank Movie LW TW WKD % chg QD % chg
1 Captain America: Civil War -- 72,765 -- +80.0%
2 Finding Mr. Right 2: Book of Love -- 1,698 -- --
3 Zootopia 2,183 1,074 -50.8% +208.6%
4 The Boy 789 303 -61.6% +13.9%
5 Port of Call 626 275 -56.1% +219.8%
6 Trivisa 1,074 261 -75.7% +35.2%
7 10 Cloverfield Lane 1,540 207 -86.6% +12.5%
8 The Propaganda Game -- 124 -- --
9 The Dressmaker -- 107 -- -4.5%
10 The Kid from the Big Apple -- 105 -- +22.1%
Captain America 3 is aiming for about 100-105k today although 110k isn't out of the question.
 
  Opening Saturday 3D showings                  
  Pirates 4 Toy Story 3 Transformers 3 Harry Potter 7-2 The Avengers Iron Man 3 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Transformers: Age of Extinction Avengers: Age of Ultron Star Wars: The Force Awakens Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice Captain America 3
Pacific Place 21 28 28 22 27 27 22 22 29 22 16 25
Total 21 28 28 22 27 27 22 22 29 22 16 25
Palace APM 25 23 32 27 34 30 19 24 33 18 17 26
Total 25 28 35 34 37 34 28 29 37 19 19 28
Tsuen Wan 18 22 20 18 24 22 20 19 26 14 11 20
Total 18 22 22 21 24 25 22 21 26 17 13 23
Palace IFC 21 24 24 21 23 25 18 15 26 24 15 22
Total 21 24 24 21 23 25 18 15 26 24 15 22
Festival Walk N/A N/A 26 26 32 32 23 26 38 25 N/A N/A
Total N/A N/A 33 32 32 36 29 27 38 27 N/A N/A
The One N/A N/A N/A 31 34 33 29 30 36 18 15 26
Total N/A N/A N/A 33 34 35 33 31 37 21 17 32
The Grand Cinema N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 31 33 30 46 31 23 32
Total N/A N/A N/A N/A 40 37 39 34 53 35 26 42
Hollywood N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 28
Total N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 35
Captain America 3 is doing pretty well everywhere in showtime count but of course it cannot match Avengers 2's record breaking showtime count. Captain America does crack the 40 showtimes mark on Saturday at The GRAND. On Sunday, it really ramps up with 46 showtimes.

3D is slowly losing its grip but there's still a ways to go before 3D rejection is fully realized.
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So it's being reported in some newspapers/magazines that Captain America 3 made $7.69m HK (994k USD) opening day which means that Batman v Superman was overestimated as well. 7m OW for Captain America 3 might be out of the picture then.

I don't know why the big trade sites reported both opening numbers at US$1.1m when they both failed to clear 1m. Very disappointing to read this.
 
  Top 15 Opening Days    
Rank Movie US Gross HK Gross
1 Avengers: Age of Ultron $1,242,606 $9,611,044
2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 $1,233,114 $9,560,768
3 Captain America 3* $994,013 $7,690,000
4 Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice* $982,379 $7,600,000
5 Spider-Man 3 $974,580 $7,556,265
6 Transformers: Age of Extinction $973,956 $7,550,000
7 Pirates of the Caribbean 3 $869,176 $6,800,000
8 Iron Man 3 $851,192 $6,614,837
9 Harry Potter 7-2 $821,324 $6,368,018
10 The Avengers $779,647 $6,044,881
11 Deadpool $753,891 $5,848,267
12 The Martian* $750,000 $5,817,917
13 Transformers 3 $741,998 $5,752,975
14 The Dark Knight Rises $666,307 $5,166,114
15 Jurassic World $663,438 $5,118,000
I don't know what to believe anymore.
 
    Weekly Gross (Mon-Sun)             Apr 18-24
LW TW Title Last Week (HKD) This Week (HKD) Days in release % chg Total (HKD) This Week (USD) Total (USD)
1 1 Zootopia $4,911,002 $3,202,625 32 -34.8% $48,575,813 $413,972 $6,278,933
3 2 10 Cloverfield Lane $3,127,586 $2,356,540 11 -24.7% $5,484,126 $304,607 $708,880
4 3 Trivisa $3,090,201 $1,853,362 18 -40.0% $8,222,184 $239,566 $1,062,803
2 4 The Huntsman: Winter's War $3,861,779 $1,706,774 18 -55.8% $10,357,010 $220,618 $1,338,752
-- 5 The Boy -- $1,132,869 4 -- $1,132,869 $146,435 $146,435
6 6 Port of Call $1,695,777 $1,080,143 144 -36.3% $3,655,107 $139,619 $472,460
5 7 Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice $1,990,185 $914,579 32 -54.0% $62,749,924 $118,218 $8,111,086
-- 8 Hardcore Henry -- $808,634 4 -- $808,634 $104,524 $104,524
8 9 Robbery $1,036,625 $679,467 11 -34.5% $1,743,944 $87,828 $225,423
-- 10 My Wife is a Superstar -- $671,841 4 -- $715,658 $86,842 $92,506
Great hold for Zootopia and Trivisa. Mediocre for 10 Cloverfield. Port of Call has had a successful relaunch. Batman v Superman is not even going to get to a 2 multiplier. Pathetic.
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3 hours ago, Sam said:

I'm confused too lol.

 

Reports say total in HK is $3.2M (up to Friday I believe)

 

Yeah, Mojo is using the trade sites' number. (Breakdown: 1.1m on Wed, 900k on Thu, 1.2m on Fri). The new number puts it at only 2.9m in 3 days (a difference of 300k...and it will only grow larger this weekend).

 

  Saturday       April 30
Rank Movie LW TW WKD % chg QD % chg
1 Captain America: Civil War -- 95,745 -- +65.1%
2 Finding Mr. Right 2: Book of Love -- 4,948 -- --
3 Zootopia 9,287 2,449 -73.6% +181.2%
4 The Boy 2,878 1,153 -59.9% +210.8%
5 Trivisa 4,938 1,152 -76.7% +253.4%
6 Port of Call 1,832 718 -60.8% +120.2%
7 10 Cloverfield Lane 6,295 497 -92.1% +34.0%
8 Mustang -- 285 -- --
9 Collective Invention -- 274 -- +33.7%
10 Miracles from Heaven -- 262 -- --
Superb increase for Captain America 3.
 
  Daily admissions (OW) Daily admissions (OW)        
  Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Total
Captain America 31,438 24,473 45,938 33,602 135,451
Captain America 2 30,942 37,871 72,031 63,688 204,532
Captain America 3 51,731 45,426 57,977 95,745   250,879
Gap (from Captain America 2) 51,731 66,215 86,321 110,035 46,347  
Gap (from Captain America) 51,731 65,719 99,223 149,030 115,428  
Captain America 3 has really crushed the other Captain America's in admissions. Sunday will be its biggest day so we will see CA3 eclipse both of them by over 140k in admissions.
 
  Weekend Projections     April 28
Rank Movie TW % chg Total
1 Captain America: Civil War $6,775,000   $6,775,000
2 Finding Mr. Right 2: Book of Love $125,000   $125,000
3 Zootopia $100,000 -68.6% $6,435,000
4 The Boy $55,000 -62.4% $251,500
5 Trivisa $48,000 -69.4% $1,150,000
Captain America 3 sets the new opening weekend record beating the 6.4m OW set by Avengers 2. Though it did not break 7m, it mightily impressed by more than doubling Captain America 2's OW (+142%). It will command more than 90% of the market share this weekend and thoroughly thumps Batman v Superman's OW. There were a lot of factors for its success including the extra day, positive word of mouth, high prices and Iron Man & friends returning in the film. The Captain America series is not nearly as popular as the Iron Man or Avengers series but the attention from the Captain America/Iron Man clash made it seem more like an Avengers movie than a Captain America movie. With Monday a holiday, this will zoom past 10m by either Wednesday or Thursday.

Finding Mr. Right 2 had special screenings beginning on Saturday and will arrive at #2. The first film was a leggy hit so it's no surprise to see the special sneaks doing well. This will open next week and if early word of mouth is to be believed, this should play well within its demographic for the next month.

The holdovers were completely dominated this weekend with Captain America 3 taking more than 85% of screens. Zootopia did alright and is aiming for Top 40 of all time. It is sitting just outside the top 40 and if it can hold well next week, it will achieve that milestone.

Not a bad hold and total for The Boy. An OK hold for Trivisa as well. It looks like it won't get to The Bodyguard's total.
 
  Sunday adm. (so far)     May 1
Rank Movie LW TW WKD % chg QD % chg
1 Captain America: Civil War -- 80,882 -- +11.2%
2 Finding Mr. Right 2: Book of Love -- 1,790 -- +5.4%
3 Zootopia 2,770 1,727 -37.7% +60.8%
4 Trivisa 1,010 399 -60.5% +52.9%
5 The Boy 783 376 -52.0% +24.1%
6 Port of Call 636 284 -55.3% +3.3%
7 10 Cloverfield Lane 1,266 256 -79.8% +23.7%
8 Eddie the Eagle -- 186 -- --
9 The Huntsman: Winter's War 1,155 134 -88.4% --
10 Neko Samurai - A Tropical Adventure -- 134 -- --
Excellent for Captain America 3. This should be able to hit 100k today. Very good for Zootopia. Finding Mr. Right 2 is looking good.

 

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