11/18/11 - 11/20/11 weekend estimates 139.5 M TTS: BD l | 22.0 M HF ll

[spizzer]

It's on pace for 287.6 if it hits 138.3. NM's multiplier was 2.08.

So after reading Shawn's theory about Wednesday openers (in which he says the 4 day is a good indicator of what the film would've made on a conventional 3 day weekend), I'm estimating that Eclipse would've opened to $144.3m.

Then, I took the midnight out of the total gross for NM and Eclipse, then did the same with their respective OW figures.

New Moon: 116.6 OW, 270.4 Total

Eclipse: 114.2 OW, 270.4 Total

Now, I calculated the overall multiplier using these figures, what I call the adjusted multiplier, and they were remarkably similar

New Moon: 2.32

Eclipse: 2.37

Average: 2.345

Now I take Breaking Dawn's OW estimate of $139m and subtract the midnights for an adjusted weekend of $109m. Applying the multiplier to this weekend figure yields $255.6m.

Now, adding in the midnight figure gives an expected 285.6m

^^That's my methodology B. I see this having a 2.345 multiplier without midnights (OW and Total), then adding in the $30.25. Edited November 21, 2011 by spizzer

[baumer]

Hmm, okay. Interesting theory. I think a 2.10 multiplier is nothing out of the question. It's still a very very low multiplier. If you look at it another way, it looks like the audience for BD has declined by about 8% from NM. If you adjust NM, it goes to 309 mill. Take 8% away from that it gives BD 285 mill. So that's right what you are prognosticating. So we'll see.

[John Marston]

it seems that Paranormal Activity 3 now has no chance of matching the original's gross

[baumer]

Yea, PA3 will end with about 104 mill. Still outstanding.