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chasmmi

Chasmmi's Winter Game - Grey Ghost is the WINNER!

1,083 posts in this topic

am going to run through all the current preseasons so far just to see if any misreads have occurred. So far the main thing is I did not word Star Wars question 8 very well.

 

The over or under is meant to mean that within 150M can fall over or under KFP3 and still be correct.
 
The gist of the question is, if KFP3 makes say 400M, will SW8 make within 150M of that (in this scenario between 250 and 550M)

 

Also preseason question 12 (foreign film grossing more in its home market that the 15th placed Domestic film) is specifically foreign language films (as in Spectre would not count as that makes the question obvious).

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JUST UNDER 48 HOURS LEFT TILL DEADLINE!!!!

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[scroll]JUST UNDER 24 HOURS LEFT TILL DEADLINE!!!! ​[/scroll]

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Must be under 12h till due now..... (I'm all done)

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I was really hoping I could participate in this game but I just don't think I will have time. I haven't had any time to work on any of the preseason stuff. I'm going to try to submit a Top 15 list at the very least tonight.

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Well, I suppose the goal this time around is not to lose to Tele by some ridiculously small amount.

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Tick tock tick tock...... Less than 2 hrs to get your shit together !!!!

Edited by Jajang

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Under 30 minutes. That's the top 15; top 7 weekends; top 10 WW; totals; top 5 sw OS ; preseason questions; SOTM 1 and week 1 questions. All due

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It's all locked up :)

Thanks all who entered

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am going to run through all the current preseasons so far just to see if any misreads have occurred. So far the main thing is I did not word Star Wars question 8 very well.

 

The over or under is meant to mean that within 150M can fall over or under KFP3 and still be correct.
 
The gist of the question is, if KFP3 makes say 400M, will SW8 make within 150M of that (in this scenario between 250 and 550M)

 

Also preseason question 12 (foreign film grossing more in its home market that the 15th placed Domestic film) is specifically foreign language films (as in Spectre would not count as that makes the question obvious).

 

Didn't China already make the question obvious?

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I can't believe I actually stuck with my 1b TFA prediction in the game, and didn't change it last minute.  :lol:  :ph34r:

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I can't believe I actually stuck with my 1b TFA prediction in the game, and didn't change it last minute. :lol::ph34r:
Yeah I saw that. I thought I was out there with nearly 900m. Probably the most interesting prediction I saw was 205m ow and 477m odd total. That kind of legs at Christmas. It will have to be nearly the worst Star Wars film ever to perform like that. Edited by Jajang

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Argh! I left some of the tougher predicts for later and I jusr realized I never actually went back and did them. Was only a few so hopefully it won't cost me too badly.

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I did see someone answered most of preseason questions but didn't do their top 15 etc. Also a couple of players didn't put totals for the top 2 films.

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I did see someone answered most of preseason questions but didn't do their top 15 etc. Also a couple of players didn't put totals for the top 2 films.

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Another very interesting fact. Most films were predicted within fairly small ranges (mostly) but Star Wars has one of widest ranges I've seen for a film. 450m to 1b. Yes the domestic range is that massive.

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One question I had quite some difficulty in making my mind about was whether Star wars' UK plus Aus total gross would be more than its Dom OW. At first I thought it definitely would but then found out that all three prequels had made just 25-30m in Aus. Now it was already difficult to decide what the OW would be. I was thinking 180 but Christmas could bring it down to 160 or The hype could take it past 200. Anyways for the question I decided to go with 180. Now to decide the probable ranges for UK and Aus grosses. I thought it shouldn't go above 45-50m in Aus. For UK 100+ was a good target but Skyfall got to 160m and star wars is really popular there too. Anyways I decided to go with 130m. That would make the total for both places be 1755, so just a 5 mil difference. And yet this could be more and OW could be less. Still, I ended up answering No (I.e - OW will be bigger) but now think I should have answered otherwise...

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Also WW grosses were hard to predict, especially since I only started research and compiling the lists a few hours before deadline. They weren't clear at all for a lot of movies. For example KFP3 had been listed on IMDB as only having confirmed release dates in China, US and Russia among major markets during the game's timeframe. Most of Europe and Latin America was listed for release after 17 the March. But a number of main markets had no release dates listed, such as South Korea where it's easily gonna make 60-70m at least. So it was totally confusing wher to include these markets in their totals or not. Also I included China grosses for both Star wars and good dinosaur but it turned out yesterday that both of them wouldn't be released there this year due to quota having been met. So one can only hope they would get released there before Feb.

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Current state of week ones according to estimates:


Part 1​

1. Will Goosebumps open to number 1 this weekend? YES (Needs 2M swing for NO)

2. Will Goosebumps open to more than $25M this weekend? 3000​  NO (Needs 1.5M increase for YES)

3. Will at least two new openers outgross The Martian this weekend? NO (Needs 6.12M swing for YES)

4. Will Hotel Transylvania 2 drop less than 43% this weekend? 2000  YES (Needs 3% swing for NO) 

5. Will Bridge of Spies have a higher PTA (per theatre average) than Crimson Peak?  YES (Needs $1165 swing for NO)


6. Will Pan increase more than 65% on Saturday?  NO (Needs 12.9% swing for YES)

7. Will Jobs make more than $1.3m for the weekend?  Yes (Needs 250k swing for No) 

8. Will Black mass have a higher percentage drop than Scorch Trials on Sunday? NO (needs 5.9% swing for YES)

9. Will The Walk cross $10M by the end of the weekend?  NO (needs 827k increase for YES)

10. Will Pan have a higher total gross than Sicario by the end of the weekend? 2000  NO (Needs 9M swing for YES)


11. Will Woodlawn open in the top 7?  NO (Needs 1.3M Swing for YES)

12. Will the Intern have the best weekend drop in the top 10? YES (2.3% swing for NO)

13. Which film in the top 12 will have the best PTA?  JOBS (needs to drop out of the top 12 for Goosebumps) 

14. Will Crimson Peak make at least 37.5% of its opening weekend gross on Friday (including Thursday)? 2000  YES (needs 3.5% swing for NO)

15. Is everyone now crazy excited that Jem and the Holograms is now just a mere one week away?!? The 4 day countdown is the best movie related event happening on Monday

Bonuses:

11/15 2000
12/15 4000
13/15 6000
14/15 8000
15/15 10000

Part 2.

Bonus Question 1. What will be the total Friday gross for the top 3 new entries? (5000)  $17.982M

​​Bonus Question 2. What will be Pan's weekend percentage drop? (5000)  61.7%

Bonus Question 3. What will be Jobs' PTA this weekend? ​ (5000)  $25,833

Part 3.​​

 

Placements:

2. The Martian
4. Crimson Peak
7. The Intern
11. Steve Jobs
13. The Walk


200o points per correct prediction. 5000 bonus for getting all 5.

Edited by chasmmi

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