Summer 2017 Comedy Battle

[Jay Beezy]

If nothing else, Baywatch will be the most promoted comedy this summer. That is a guaran-fuckin-tee.

[filmlover]

I feel like Girls Trip shouldn't be underestimated. It's the only movie really targeting females (and in particular, African American females) in the second half of the summer, plus the trailer kills every time I've seen it with an audience. Could definitely be a Bad Moms type of success.

[franfar]

I have no idea how these movies will line up. Snatched will probably bomb, Baywatch will do well but not gangbusters, Rough Night looks a bit too generic to succeed, The House looks somewhat fresh and the trailer was funny, and Girls Trip looks good and will appeal to the usually neglected AA audience.

 

Tentative predictions:

Snatched: 45m

 

Baywatch: 120m

 

Rough Night: Not sure, maybe 65m

 

The House: 100m

 

Girls Trip: 85m

 

Ranking:

1) Baywatch

2) The House

3) Girls Trip

4) Rough Night

5) Snatched

 

Edit: Scratch that, Baywatch has The Rock. I'll give it #1

Edited April 2, 2017 by franfar

[Jay Beezy]

5 hours ago, filmlover said:

I feel like Girls Trip shouldn't be underestimated. It's the only movie really targeting females (and in particular, African American females) in the second half of the summer, plus the trailer kills every time I've seen it with an audience. Could definitely be a Bad Moms type of success.

 

It's the only real clear cut comedy opening in the second half.

 

Then again, The House, opening on the last day in June, will do most of its business in the second half.

[Kalo]

I'm gonna go with Snatched, it actually looks really funny. Baywatch just looks like cheap raunch humor, which sadly is possibly enough to sell it. 

[Jay Beezy]

I added in The Hitman's Bodyguard based on the trailer.

[franfar]

On 4/2/2017 at 2:36 PM, franfar said:

I have no idea how these movies will line up. Snatched will probably bomb, Baywatch will do well but not gangbusters, Rough Night looks a bit too generic to succeed, The House looks somewhat fresh and the trailer was funny, and Girls Trip looks good and will appeal to the usually neglected AA audience.

 

Tentative predictions:

Snatched: 45m

 

Baywatch: 120m

 

Rough Night: Not sure, maybe 65m

 

The House: 100m

 

Girls Trip: 85m

 

Ranking:

1) Baywatch

2) The House

3) Girls Trip

4) Rough Night

5) Snatched

 

Edit: Scratch that, Baywatch has The Rock. I'll give it #1

I will revise my predictions to:

 

1) Baywatch - I don't see going this above 120m DOM. It wants to be another 21JS but won't tap the zeitgeist like that one did. It doesn't feel as hyped or funny. 110m

 

2) The House - It looks like it could generate some chuckles, but looks kinda lame and boring at the same time. 75m

 

3) Snatched - Looks awful to me, but I'm not in the target demo. 60m

 

4) Girls Trip - Looks kinda shitty, and the director hasn't really done better than 70m for a more well known film. 55m

 

5) Rough Night - Looks so generic. It doesn't even have a plot. Sad! 40m

Edited April 19, 2017 by franfar

[Maxmoser3]

Baywatch, and Snatched will be the only ones this summer that have a shot at $100 million. Rough Night looks silly but it feels like a Let's Be Cops run more than anything, and The House could play like Get Hard or The Campaign. While Girls Trip will have a decent OW, but die off after that but still be a hit. Hitman's Bodyguard looks fun as hell, but I have a bad feeling that we"ll another Nice Guys on our hands. 

[Jay Beezy]

I was about to add in The Little Hours, but it's only getting an indie release so I'm keeping that out.

[filmlover]

56 minutes ago, Jay Beezy said:

I was about to add in The Little Hours, but it's only getting an indie release so I'm keeping that out.

It wasn't gonna make much anyway.

[Jay Beezy]

13 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It wasn't gonna make much anyway.

 

Yeah, too off the wall.

[franfar]

I still think Rough Night looks wayyyy to generic to stand out. Snatched looks meh, but farcical and kinda funny at the same time.

 

 

[Jay Beezy]

Boy, things look really dismal here.

[MCKillswitch123]

1 minute ago, Jay Beezy said:

Boy, things look really dismal here.

 

Baby Driver (though not really a comedy) is looking at 60M DOM best case scenario, so that's not a huge improvement. The House is also looking DOA.

 

It's all on either Girls Trip or, hopefully, Hitman's Bodyguard to save us here.

[filmlover]

Gonna be a pretty easy victory for Girls Trip at this point IMO. African American audiences have been underserved this summer (don't bother bringing up All Eyez on Me as competition for this as this is ten times more accessible) and the trailers actually have laughs in them (which couldn't be said for Baywatch, The House, etc.).

[Jay Beezy]

I want to it be Hitman's Bodyguard because Ryan Reynolds and Samuel L. Jackson are the comedy dream team I didn't know I wanted until the first trailer, but at this point I wouldn't be mad if Girls Trip won out.

 

Honestly it wouldn't surprise me if Girls Trip got surprisingly decent reviews.

Edited June 27, 2017 by Jay Beezy