Wednesday Numbers : GOTG2:$7.53M Crossed $500M WW | FF8:0.57M | BATB:0.38M

[YM!]

I'd say best case scenario is a 2.55x which gives us $373.57M

Worst case is about a 2.3x which gives us $336.95M

[Brainiac5]

Just now, YourMother said:

Second Weekend and Third Weekend is what determines where it'll end. Besides GV2 will have lots of double screenings with Pirates.

 

Having Double features are really unnecessary too be honest.

It could be a plus or an negative so far now I'm just going with the typical Mavel sequel Multipler.

Queston???

 

Why would Disney feel the need to The Double ???

Just curious to The ambition of it as it could open the door for some very good things in the future.

[YM!]

Just now, Brainiac5 said:

Having Double features are really unnecessary too be honest.

It could be a plus or an negative so far now I'm just going with the typical Mavel sequel Multipler.

Queston???

 

Why would Disney feel the need to The Double ???

Just curious to The ambition of it as it could open the door for some very good things in the future.

It for like Drive Ins Theaters.

[Brainiac5]

5 minutes ago, YourMother said:

It for like Drive Ins Theaters.

How much more can something like that add to films Domestic run?.

8 minutes ago, YourMother said:

I'd say best case scenario is a 2.55x which gives us $373.57M

Worst case is about a 2.3x which gives us $336.95M

2.55? You really think it can get that high as a best case senario?

[bruchav]

5 hours ago, HenryjRhetorics said:

 

Forbes projecting it to pass the 700M by the end of the week. No way this doesn't generate at least 100M the rest of way.

Sent from my E6533 using Tapatalk
 

 

 

Lol, this is not going to make $700 by the end of this week, this projection of Forbes is a joke, most likely make $ 650m by the end of this week, but you're right, this movie will do at least $800m for sure .

[YM!]

7 minutes ago, Brainiac5 said:

How much more can something like that add to films Domestic run?.

2.55? You really think it can get that high as a best case senario?

Civil War to Ultron:Civil War has moved up to a total positive score of 88% and a 75% definite recommend to friends. That’s a tad under Ultron‘s 90% positive and 79% recommend, which isn’t a bad place to be. Audience make-up of Civil War per ComScore is 66% guys to 34% females, with 51% over 25. Ultron was more female at 38% and younger at 55% under 25. Ethnicity breakdown for Civil War was 48% Caucasians, 19% Hispanic, 18% African American and 16% Asian/other according to ComScore.

 GV2 to G1 in comparison: PostTrak continues to report that 76% of all moviegoers are giving GOTG2 a definite thumbs up to their friends; that’s one point above GOTG‘s 75%. PostTrak updates their audience polls throughout the weekend and GO9TG2 is still strong among older men and women over 25 with 32% and 26%, respectively. Guys under 25 rep 25% of all moviegoers, while females of that age are at 18%. All this means is that Marvel fans are aging up, and that those who were under 25 when the first movie opened crossed over. Strong positive reactions among all four demos with M25+ (94%), M25- (93%),  F25+ (91%) and F25- (88%). Disney shows that 72% adults came out for GOTG2, 19% families, and 9% teens. Fifty-four percent of all GOTG moviegoers were Caucasian, 19% Hispanic, 12% African American and 9% Asian. Imax hubs delivered $13M of GOTG2‘s weekend stateside with the large format exhibitor ranking in seven of the sequel’s top 10 locations. Thirty-nine percent of all PostTrak respondents said GOTG2 blew away their expectations compared to 32% on the original 2014 film.

 

Not the most reliable source but it could be a decent indicator.

[Brainiac5]

3 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Civil War to Ultron:Civil War has moved up to a total positive score of 88% and a 75% definite recommend to friends. That’s a tad under Ultron‘s 90% positive and 79% recommend, which isn’t a bad place to be. Audience make-up of Civil War per ComScore is 66% guys to 34% females, with 51% over 25. Ultron was more female at 38% and younger at 55% under 25. Ethnicity breakdown for Civil War was 48% Caucasians, 19% Hispanic, 18% African American and 16% Asian/other according to ComScore.

 GV2 to G1 in comparison: PostTrak continues to report that 76% of all moviegoers are giving GOTG2 a definite thumbs up to their friends; that’s one point above GOTG‘s 75%. PostTrak updates their audience polls throughout the weekend and GO9TG2 is still strong among older men and women over 25 with 32% and 26%, respectively. Guys under 25 rep 25% of all moviegoers, while females of that age are at 18%. All this means is that Marvel fans are aging up, and that those who were under 25 when the first movie opened crossed over. Strong positive reactions among all four demos with M25+ (94%), M25- (93%),  F25+ (91%) and F25- (88%). Disney shows that 72% adults came out for GOTG2, 19% families, and 9% teens. Fifty-four percent of all GOTG moviegoers were Caucasian, 19% Hispanic, 12% African American and 9% Asian. Imax hubs delivered $13M of GOTG2‘s weekend stateside with the large format exhibitor ranking in seven of the sequel’s top 10 locations. Thirty-nine percent of all PostTrak respondents said GOTG2 blew away their expectations compared to 32% on the original 2014 film.

 

Not the most reliable source but it could be a decent indicator.

Yeah thOse are good number However I'm not banking everything on stronger holds on the weekends. I'm just being optimistic as last year I thought we had a film that could do 450+but it ended up being 45mil shy?.That movie didn't face a potential two 100mil grossers in its 3rd and 4th week.

[HenryjRhetorics]

 

Lol, this is not going to make $700 by the end of this week, this projection of Forbes is a joke, most likely make $ 650m by the end of this week, but you're right, this movie will do at least $800m for sure .

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2017/05/11/box-office-guardians-of-the-galaxy-2-has-crossed-500-million-worldwide/#403f09ae3734

 

My mistake. They said under/over 709M of ASM2. I take by under, they mean 50 under. [emoji16]

 

 

 

Sent from my E6533 using Tapatalk

 

 

 

[YM!]

5 minutes ago, Brainiac5 said:

Yeah thOse are good number However I'm not banking everything on stronger holds on the weekends. I'm just being optimistic as last year I thought we had a film that could do 450+but it ended up being 45mil shy?.That movie didn't face a potential two 100mil grossers in its 3rd and 4th week.

Civil War fought off Angry Birds and XMEN  (both in the $100M-$155M range).

Ultron fought off PP2, Fury Road, and San Andress, all doing over $150M domestic

IM3 dealt with Gatsby, Trek 2, Fast 6, Hangover, and Epic, all of which did $100M-$230M.

Again second and third weekend holds determine it's total, remember you needed 5-6 films for Ultron, and 6-8 films for CW which could have been turnoff for the GA more so the latter than the former.

[YM!]

A thing that may work in GV2's favor is that it's the only "family" film of May. Wimpy Kid would be lucky to end with $25M total. Unlike CW and IM3 there's no major ($100M+) family competition. Even Ultron had a small competitor from families, which was Tomorrowland ($90M) which may have benefited it due to double drive in screenings.

[TalismanRing]

33 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Civil War to Ultron:Civil War has moved up to a total positive score of 88% and a 75% definite recommend to friends. That’s a tad under Ultron‘s 90% positive and 79% recommend, which isn’t a bad place to be. Audience make-up of Civil War per ComScore is 66% guys to 34% females, with 51% over 25. Ultron was more female at 38% and younger at 55% under 25. Ethnicity breakdown for Civil War was 48% Caucasians, 19% Hispanic, 18% African American and 16% Asian/other according to ComScore.

 

 GV2 to G1 in comparison: PostTrak continues to report that 76% of all moviegoers are giving GOTG2 a definite thumbs up to their friends; that’s one point above GOTG‘s 75%. PostTrak updates their audience polls throughout the weekend and GO9TG2 is still strong among older men and women over 25 with 32% and 26%, respectively. Guys under 25 rep 25% of all moviegoers, while females of that age are at 18%. All this means is that Marvel fans are aging up, and that those who were under 25 when the first movie opened crossed over. Strong positive reactions among all four demos with M25+ (94%), M25- (93%),  F25+ (91%) and F25- (88%). Disney shows that 72% adults came out for GOTG2, 19% families, and 9% teens. 

 

Fifty-four percent of all GOTG moviegoers were Caucasian, 19% Hispanic, 12% African American and 9% Asian. Imax hubs delivered $13M of GOTG2‘s weekend stateside with the large format exhibitor ranking in seven of the sequel’s top 10 locations. Thirty-nine percent of all PostTrak respondents said GOTG2 blew away their expectations compared to 32% on the original 2014 film.

 

Not the most reliable source but it could be a decent indicator.

 

Interesting that GOTG2's audience skews that much older (72% vs 51% over 25 - my guess is IM and CA are more popular with the younger set as was Avengers) and is ethnically less diverse than CW (larger AA audience makes sense with Black Panther, Falcon and War Machine - but also Asian is considerably higher even though GOTG2 has Asian heroes)

[Brainiac5]

15 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Civil War fought off Angry Birds and XMEN  (both in the $100M-$155M range).

Ultron fought off PP2, Fury Road, and San Andress, all doing over $150M domestic

IM3 dealt with Gatsby, Trek 2, Fast 6, Hangover, and Epic, all of which did $100M-$230M.

Again second and third weekend holds determine it's total, remember you needed 5-6 films for Ultron, and 6-8 films for CW which could have been turnoff for the GA more so the latter than the former.

I'm talking about Two films possibly Doing 100dom o.w two weeks in a row. 

Not lifetime grossers.

If we are gonna Bank things on strong weekend holds then we also have to take into consideration  POTC and WW.

even if the two does 75Mil+ that could very well hurt the potential strong weekend holds in w.e #3 and #4.

Those two films will also have the full feel of summer as Gotg most likely will be losing a lot of screens Around that time.

[TalismanRing]

6 minutes ago, YourMother said:

A thing that may work in GV2's favor is that it's the only "family" film of May. Wimpy Kid would be lucky to end with $25M total. Unlike CW and IM3 there's no major ($100M+) family competition. Even Ultron had a small competitor from families, which was Tomorrowland ($90M) which may have benefited it due to double drive in screenings.

 

Pirates is a family film - probably more than GOTG2.  But if it goes along with tracking it should help GOTG2 with drive in

 

Tomorrow land opened so low that I doubt it helped Ultron much in drive ins.  Even less so the disaster that was Alice2 "helping" CW.  Opening that wide just took theaters from it.

 

IM3 really faced a lot of competition - that 2.35 multi doesn't look that mediocre in retrospect.

 

Edited May 11, 2017 by TalismanRing

[YM!]

13 minutes ago, Brainiac5 said:

I'm talking about Two films possibly Doing 100dom o.w two weeks in a row. 

Not lifetime grossers.

If we are gonna Bank things on strong weekend holds then we also have to take into consideration  POTC and WW.

even if the two does 75Mil+ that could very well hurt the potential strong weekend holds in w.e #3 and #4.

Those two films will also have the full feel of summer as Gotg most likely will be losing a lot of screens Around that time.

Still though, GV2 not only has Memorial Day Weekend, but again, it'll benefit a lot from double screenings with Pirates. However WW might be a problem. Still though, even if WW does $100M+ OW, IM3 dealt with consecutive $50M+ openers until June, and did well with a 2.35x multiple with more competition in May than GV2, Thor (again not the best comp.) did a 2.7x multiple in May despite dealing with two $85M+ OWs back to back.

Edited May 11, 2017 by YourMother

[YM!]

Again as history has shown, if GV2 has good holds for second and third weekend, even with Pirates and Wonder Woman it'll be just fine.

[keysersoze123]

its quite predictable. I thought 40% otherwise it was looking at sub 50% 2nd weekend drop which would be impossible unless the movie is a juggernaut(which is rare for a sequel).

 

it will drop in high single digits again today.

[Brainiac5]

51 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

its quite predictable. I thought 40% otherwise it was looking at sub 50% 2nd weekend drop which would be impossible unless the movie is a juggernaut(which is rare for a sequel).

 

it will drop in high single digits again today.

Many here seem to think 50%-55% 2nd weekend drop.

[TalismanRing]

3 minutes ago, Brainiac5 said:

Many here seem to think 50%-55% 2nd weekend drop.

 

 

Deadline is as well but they're always off.  I don't see that at all.  55% is probably the best case scenario.  But 58-60% is more probable.

[YM!]

5 minutes ago, Brainiac5 said:

Many here seem to think 50%-55% 2nd weekend drop.

Not even close for me. Thinking 55% as a best case scenario. Thinking 56%-60% drop.

[wileECoyote]

5 hours ago, MikeQ said:

Beauty and the Beast is down only 20.6% from last week. If Mother's Day is kind to it, it could have an especially strong weekend coming up.

 

Peace,

Mike

 

Would tend to agree with this except that BatB will have the harshest TC drop -19%, of its run, so far.  I'm expecting the Friday bump to be more muted than before but the Sunday drop should be softer.

 

 Either way, 500 is pretty much a done deal. A solid run for a movie that didn't the advantage of Holiday or Summer boosts.