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Everything posted by Juby
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When will we get a 250M OW? What film could do it?
Juby replied to Totem's topic in Box Office Discussion
If not IW this April, I don't see any other film in 2018-2020 schedule which can brake $250 mln OW. -
For Your Consideration . . . My 7 favorites movies: The ultimate action movie & the best sequel of all time... ... and it's grand predecessor. The best comic book / superhero / Christopher Nolan movie (that's right!!) Just... Rocky! Rocky! Rocky! Rocky! Rocky! Rocky! Rocky! Rocky! Rocky! Rocky! The best western I've ever seen / Probably the best movie soundtrack of all time The movie on which I weeped the most tears. . . Incredible touching masterpiece with the best movie villain of all time. . .
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0.0% chance that this will happen.
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Because RotJ was "the final chapter", as weel as RotS ("The Saga is Complete" tagline, Vader presence!). This one will be just another SW film. Everyone knows that after Episode IX Disney is planning another 1596 Star Wars films, another trilogy another prequ... I mean spin-offs.
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No way. After The Last Jedi very mixed reception and without anyone from original trio (Luke, Leia, Han) "Episode IX" won't match even its predecessor's numbers. My prediction for now: $560 mln DOM + $700 mln OS, maybe. This would be first "the third movie in trilogy" which won't increase from the previous episode.
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What boxoffice runs are unbelievable in retrospect?
Juby replied to lilmac's topic in Classic Box Office Runs
But Mojo is not that solid and has contradictory information. Look here: https://web.archive.org/web/20011203120849/http://www.boxofficemojo.com:80/alltime/world/ Since the very beginning of its existence, Mojo gave E.T. $704,8 mln worldwide ($305,000,000 overseas estimated) - which isn't necessary the truth, because T2 was the first movie that crossed $300 mln OS (that's a fact!) and E.T. has no major releases between 1991 and 1998. The same numbers are on Guru site (probably based on Mojo or Variety from 1998), so let's assume Universal didn't overestimated the film, and this is true. http://www.boxofficeguru.com/intlarch2.htm However, after 2002 re-release the film add another $33,3 mln OS. So, it's final overseas gross should be ~$338,3 mln or something like that. Here Mojo has it estimated at $337 mln: https://web.archive.org/web/20021001123059/http://boxofficemojo.com:80/alltime/world/ And then, for some reason, they add another $$$ to E.T. overseas gross in 2004!! From where this money came from?! No one knows. It looks like they add another $20,3 mln (or even $20,8 mln) form 1985 again with splinting E.T. releases. The $357,8 mln OS is bullshit. Also, take a look on this: http://variety.com/1993/film/box-office/dinos-dominate-world-110286/ E.T. was at $639 mln worldwide in 1993, so its overseas gross was "only" around $239 mln that day and has no major releases in years 1993-1998. Interesting, isnt? The same story is with domestic gross of Jaws, but it's another story for another times. Universal wasn't very honest about numbers of their movies. -
What boxoffice runs are unbelievable in retrospect?
Juby replied to lilmac's topic in Classic Box Office Runs
That's actually not necessary true. Depending on source, E.T. overseas run was $305 mln (according to the Variety in 90s) or $280 mln (according to NYT in 80s). Ghost's overseas run was for years $300 mln (or a few dollars less according to the-numbers.com), Mojo updated it to $288 mln in late 90s or at the beginning of the XXI century. So, a lot of sources in early 90s could have gave us info that Ghost was bigger than E.T. and maybe that was true, cause films in that era were present in cinemas abroad for years! I would say, E.T. overseas numbers are not very solid, after 2002-re-release they definitely add too many $$ to its OS tank. The more impressive than Ghost is Terminator 2. It was a highly demanded sequel of a mare hit (but huge on VHS) which - according to the sources from early 90s - was the very first movie ever to cross $300 mln overseas, and with $312-315 mln (again, depending on a source) it was the biggest movie of all time! It's done it with R-rating in many countries, without 3D, without IMAXes, without China. I'm not sure if there is any R-rated film that huge overseas. + Domestic run of T2 was also great. It was 13th movie ever to cross $200 milion, it had very good legs after the second opening ever only behind the Batman! Combined nearly $520 mln was the second biggest movie of all time worldwide, only behind the E.T.!! And it could be even bigger, but VHS were release quickly, somewhere in Nov 1991. In Poland we have thousands of pirate-VHS of T2 before the cinema release, that's why T2 disappointed with an over 6 times smaller admission than T1 in 1985. I wonder how big T2 could have been today? Dom adjusted is $447,7 mln which gave us almost $690 mln OS in today's ATP + 3D + IMAXs + China (China loves Terminators) = easily over $1,2 mld worldwide (for a R-rated movie!). But the no. #1 in history is off course Titanic. His original run is the most impressive by far, with a huge margin over the rest. -
BLACK PANTHER | 646.8 M overseas ● 1346.9 M worldwide
Juby replied to kayumanggi's topic in International Box Office
I guess, TDKR-OS is out of reach, right? -
A WRINKLE IN TIME | 32.2 M overseas ● 132.7 M worldwide
Juby replied to kayumanggi's topic in International Box Office
Polish premier has just been canceled. -
Terminator: Dark Fate | Nov 1 2019 | Estimated to lose 122.6M
Juby replied to grim22's topic in Box Office Discussion
I am a huge Terminator (and James Cameron) fan. I saw T1 and T2 dozens times and they are one of my favorites movies of all time. But still, I'm not sure about this project. T3 is fine - not good Terminator 2 sequel, but it's good blockbuster, good/fast action film and decent entertainment. TS was... average/bad, and it was the first "PG-13" Terminator which started its own trilogy (#LOL #fail). Genisys was even worse, also PG-13 (for the film about killing machines!) and also first and the only from planned trilogy. This new film is the third attempt for the new trilogy and again erasing everything after T2. This sounds just like Genisys 3 years ago. I hope Cameron/Miller will show me something new, and this won't be another kick-in-balls to this franchise. I really do. -
Japan premier is also April 27th. Is this opens everywhere the same weekend? What is the Chinese release date? What about Peru, Russia, Romania and Lithuania? IMDb still states them as 3rd/4th May. EDIT: Romania is April 27th now, but China release date is not April 27th. It's May 4th Is the overseas/worldwide OW record still possible without China & Russia?
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LOL, what a bulls**t. The Dark Knight was already a monster before the Heath Ledger's death - it was only an additional +boost to TDK's huge hype. I thought this ridiculous statement is no longer "popular" among movie fans, but I see even 10 years later it's still valid. It's not the only trailer, it's the "main trailer", the final version. First teaser trailer has different beginning and ending: And agree, it's not a good trailer, but the visuals were outstanding, they build the hype (great Gotham, great Batman suit, great Joker). I love this film, Batman is one of my childhood favorites movies (still 9/10 <3), it was one of the record-breaking box office phenomenon and a big step in box office history. Here are few rare B.O. vintage Variety fragments about Batman: http://www.1989batman.com/2015/04/vintage-newspaper-clipping-variety.html http://i57.photobucket.com/albums/g220/sallah4life/batman/variety/varietysmall18_zpshslrnehb.jpg http://i57.photobucket.com/albums/g220/sallah4life/batman/variety/varietysmall17_zpslhzwxfye.jpg
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Shazam! | April 5, 2019 | 21st Most Profitable Film of 2019
Juby replied to Neo's topic in Box Office Discussion
Waiting for the official photo, but this one... looks good. Levi will be perfect Shazam! -
It's too early to predict 2019, but I can imagine that "Star Wars: Episode IX" goes less than $620 mln DOM, and Toy Story 4 won't be released in 2019 at all. "Avengers 4" is underpredicted (we should wait how huge IW is going to be), IT: Chapter 2 is overpredicted and "The Lion King CGI-remake" might be bigger than B&tB in 2017! Wonder Woman II won't go any bigger than the first part (will be more frontloader with bigger OW). "Frozen 2" could be huge too.
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BLACK PANTHER | 646.8 M overseas ● 1346.9 M worldwide
Juby replied to kayumanggi's topic in International Box Office
You're right, but still I'm thinking that $600 mln is very possible right now. I'll surprised if BP won't beat easily TDK final gross ($535) with that huge opening. -
BLACK PANTHER | 646.8 M overseas ● 1346.9 M worldwide
Juby replied to kayumanggi's topic in International Box Office
Every film with over $200M opening weekend eventually cross $600M domestic, so $500 mln is locked already. Even $655 mln DOM is possible right now. -
I'm not sure. Howard was one of the BEST, but he did not good job in Hobbit 2-3. Maybe Brad Fiedel will return for Cameron?
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BLACK PANTHER | 646.8 M overseas ● 1346.9 M worldwide
Juby replied to kayumanggi's topic in International Box Office
Domestic this could go anywhere form $550 mln to $660 mln, I think. OS will be easily over $500 mln so BP has a clear shot to beat CW and IM3 ww numbers. -
BLACK PANTHER | 646.8 M overseas ● 1346.9 M worldwide
Juby replied to kayumanggi's topic in International Box Office
In Poland, Black Panther have solid start ("good" for comic book/ superhero movie). 133 000 admission estimated during the weekend, around 190 000 since February 14th. But the hype is small and this Friday probably the most anticipated Polish movie of the year will destroy BP legs. I think it will do BvS numbers here (max. $2,5 mln).