keysersoze123
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Posts posted by keysersoze123
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Amazing that we are now disappointed by 35m+ OD 🙂
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2 hours ago, interiorgatordecorator said:
if they can +600k for monsters, why didnt they go +300k for flash?
According to Charlie they went +750K for Dune 2. So why not 600K for Zilla. Flash WB just gave up and did not want to do anything.
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9 minutes ago, Arlborn said:
I keep forgetting how big ERAS’ first weekend was for something that came out of nowhere.
List is a bit depressing to look at by the way, the market has been a bit weak for so long. This month is such a pleasant surprise.
Eras felt like a disappointment by the time it opened 🙂 Opening day presales were at Endgame level.
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2 minutes ago, Maggie said:
Isn't catholic Easter this weekend?
your thread has failed big time. 100m domestic in less than a week the way its going.
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We can call it WB Tax for any movie that will add 0.5m to previews 🙂 Again even Charlie cannot be 100% sure as not all numbers are even in comscore. It could be some museum imax or Puerto Rico or some other location boosting BO 🙂
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20 minutes ago, M37 said:
Fwiw, it matters to me. I’m not seeking to read a studio’s mind and project what they will report, unless explicitly stated
I believe in the tracking process, and in seeking precision, which means having a good idea of the “real previews” on which to base future comps (and IMs). Same goes for EA shows. I get that they’re always an estimate, and rounding up from say $16.7 to $17M isn’t a big deal. But this is now looking like twice in a row WB hasn’t rounded up so much as fudged up, more than $500K on a sub-$10M value, and sandwiched around Sony messing around with GBFE OW
If studios are going to keep getting fast and loose with “official” numbers, I’m going to lose my taste for this real quickly, like betting into a rigged game
My feeling based on 2.7m ish MTC1 was 9.7m. Ratio will be lower as its almost like a friday than a thursday. But MTC2 seems to have disappointed. So it went lower.
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11 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:
WOW. should clear 375K I guess, on high end 390K type may be. $26M+ OD be done deal with that. I can see $28M+.
Definitely looking like it. Just earlyin the morning and its almost at 200K !!! 30m True Friday as @katnisscinnaplex also is seeing. I think with previews being rounded up, OD will be 39m ish.
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How is saturday sales looking. Will it increase.
@cannastop I dont think Universal went for Barbenheimer campaign anyway. Back then WB went for it and it did not work.
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After movies continuously under performing relative to early presales, at least this movie met the expectations. I hoping for a big increase tomorrow.
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11 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
Subject to MTC1 actuals which I will get tomorrow, $9.25-9.4M previews.
It does not matter. We are all predicting what the studio will report 🙂 Past few weeks we are always arguing around real "previews".
That said I am surprised by sub 9.5m which means other major MTC did not do well despite Good Friday.
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23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:
Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire MTC1
Friday - 102461/1097919 1804552.17 6145 shows +21727
Friday should hit 160k ish by tomorrow night and hit 320-350K finish. High end could take it to 25m True Friday and 75m+ OW as @M37 had predicted yesterday. I think even @charlie Jatinder post about beating Dune 2 OW is in play.
Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire MTC1 Friday - 156305/1103561 2673765.19 6182 shows +53844
Fell slightly short of 160K I had put yesterday but still its so close and so I am sticking to the same prediction for friday. somewhere in 23-26m range for true friday depending on how the walkups go.
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10 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
well Porthos has called 9.1 (+/- 0.5), so 10 is anyways dead 😵💫
He is comping with normal thursday previews and he did get data early. Look at growth from 3PM PST onwards. Really huge. It sold almost as much as what Dune 2 did entire final day in that time.
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9 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
$10M seems tough IMO as actuals will probably be $2.65M range. $9.5-9.75M type may be but WB may just round off to $10M.
That is why I estimated a round number. Otherwise I would have gone for 9.7m ish.
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22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:
Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire MTC1
Previews(T-1) - 85565/646340 1580924.03 3534 shows +16410
Friday - 102461/1097919 1804552.17 6145 shows +21727
Strong day for sure. 4x from T-1 PS takes it to ~150K and 5x to ~165k ish finish. ~8-9m previews is in play.
Friday should hit 160k ish by tomorrow night and hit 320-350K finish. High end could take it to 25m True Friday and 75m+ OW as @M37 had predicted yesterday. I think even @charlie Jatinder post about beating Dune 2 OW is in play.
Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire MTC1 Previews Final - 156105/649322 2767470.25 3560 shows +70540
Excellent final day and it finished within the range I expected yesterday. Looking at ATP and with a holiday tomorrow, ~10m previews is in play. Will post friday number later.
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https://deadline.com/2024/03/alamo-drafthouse-cinema-up-for-sale-1235871003/
QuoteSeveral sources tell Deadline that the Alamo Drafthouse Cinema circuit is up for sale.
The news comes about a week and a half before CinemaCon, the major studios and exhibitors’ annual love-in in Las Vegas. I’m told that some studios have heard the sales pitch for the cinephile circuit, which counts 41 locations across 13 states. No bidders as of yet.
Also, there’s no word on an asking price for Alamo Drafthouse. However, the Tim League-founded chain cleared $134M at the 2023 box office, +25% over 2022, per box office intel. That percentile jump is higher than the actual domestic B.O. rise of 22% between those two years; the 2023 B.O. for U.S./Canada hit $9 billion.
I hope the unique experience of drafthouse does not go away and they become part of say AMC or Cinemark.
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At MTC1 Zilla is at 122493/649030 2195879.25. Definitely finishing closer to upper end of my prediction. Let us see where things are in the evening.
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One call out I would give is one has to be careful extrapolating without walkups as this is not a normal thursday with Friday being off for many. Unless its for a similar release date, extrapolation without capturing walkups could be off.
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Bow to Sir Nolan.
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6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
5x will be 167K. I think that’s a bit high, though 155K from 4.25x be fine.
Damn it. That was terrible. Updated to 150-165. Ballpark range. Since tomorrow is Quasi Friday evening in many markets, I think 5x is not outrageous. But somewhere between those 2. High end could take it close to 10 than 9 as it being a quasi friday means MTC1 ratio will be lower. Let us see how things go tomorrow.
I hope @rehpyc also provides an update tomorrow as does @Inceptionzq
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1 hour ago, HummingLemon496 said:
Key somehow perfectly guessed Dune's opening weekend and domestic based on a day or so of EA sales so I'll trust his mid 60s prediction for GXK
I wish I could say I am the most accurate. But I am not(Too many variables and my data sample at times is too high and could have bias). Dune 2 was more of instinct based on expectations that Denis will deliver a RAVE and he did.
Go with @M37 normally as he looks at all the data from all locations. Generally that provides better perspective. @Porthos black magic is also at play for previews for big preview movies. So keep an eye on Sacramento data as well.
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On 3/26/2024 at 10:04 PM, keysersoze123 said:
Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire MTC1
Previews(T-2) - 69155/640680 1297769.61 3491 shows +10487
Friday - 80734/1083696 1441303.64 6044 shows +16099
Flattish day for previews. Not surprised after how things went yesterday and lack of any catalyst. Friday did go up a bit and I feel good about 20m+ True Friday or even more once we get to gauge walkups on thursday. I am still feeling good about my prediction yesterday.
Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire MTC1
Previews(T-1) - 85565/646340 1580924.03 3534 shows +16410
Friday - 102461/1097919 1804552.17 6145 shows +21727
Strong day for sure. 4x from T-1 PS takes it to ~150K and 5x to ~165k ish finish. ~8-9m previews is in play.
Friday should hit 160k ish by tomorrow night and hit 320-350K finish. High end could take it to 25m True Friday and 75m+ OW as @M37 had predicted yesterday. I think even @charlie Jatinder post about beating Dune 2 OW is in play.
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The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire MTC1 Friday - 381370/1108096 6282777.66 6230 shows +225065
Strong day of walkups. I would have thought this is good for high 20s True Friday. I guess other MTC under performed again.