keysersoze123
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Posts posted by keysersoze123
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1 hour ago, abracadabra1998 said:
Minnesota Previews:
Challengers (T-13, Day 1):
Day: T-13, T-10 Shows New Sold Seats % Sold Thursday: 18 theaters 59 29 29 9383 0.31 Monday April 22 EA: 13 theaters 13 87 87 2640 3.3 TOTALS: 72 116 116 12023 0.96 Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage: PLFs: 22 22 75.86 MTC1: 23 23 79.31 Alamo: 4 4 13.79 Other chains: 2 2 6.9 Day 1 Comps (Including EA):
0.92x Civil War (w/ EA): $2.96 Million* (17 theaters)
*Using reported $2.9 Million + $325k estimated EA numbers
This was a very strong start locally, obviously carried by the EA but a good sign of local interest. I will have better comps at T-11.
you should compare only thursday to thursday. Early shows dont have similar release size. Civil War had very limited early shows only.
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32 minutes ago, filmlover said:
Abigail is getting a decent-sized marketing push, I think $12M or so is reasonable for that. Not expecting much for Ministry though, even the relatively low theater count is screaming "dump and run."
Ministry at least has strong sales for early shows tomorrow. Abigail has done nothing so far.
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What I meant is its not behaving like a big breakout. I am sure anecdotally doing well in big cities. That does not make any movie a breakout.
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Dont Worry darling had a bigger cast. I was looking at presales for that movie and it wont be easy for Challengers to be that big. Let us wait and see close to release.
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1 hour ago, Flip said:
Challengers is selling VERY good, EA shows already close to capacity and still good sales for Thursday
Put anecdotal. Its definitely not close to selling out everywhere. So far release looks small. I am not buying a big OW at this point.
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23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:
Civil War MTC1
Previews(T-1) - 37355/398875 715288.13 2087 shows +6390
Friday - 32781/704452 610358.39 3581 shows +6763
There was not that much of an acceleration today. I dont think this movie will over index as much as Monkey King but 35% MTC1 ratio means it needs to have good walkups to hit 3m. Let us see how things go tomorrow.
Civil War MTC1
Previews Final - 65334/400424 1181922.83 2098 shows +27979
Friday - 44491/706164 808746.43 3595 shows +11710
Really strong final day of walkups. I am thinking 3.3m+ true thursday and another 325K for early shows. OW should be low 20s at minimum.
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19 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:
Civil War MTC1
Previews(T-1) - 37355/398875 715288.13 2087 shows +6390
Friday - 32781/704452 610358.39 3581 shows +6763
There was not that much of an acceleration today. I dont think this movie will over index as much as Monkey King but 35% MTC1 ratio means it needs to have good walkups to hit 3m. Let us see how things go tomorrow.
Looking like its going to have a strong finish. Definitely 3m+. Probably around 3.5m with early shows if they club it together.
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22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:
Civil War MTC1
Previews(T-2) - 30965/398149 600910.07 2084 shows +5597
Friday - 26018/699115 491670.30 3556 shows +5669
Really strong day for Civil War. This is definitely not another Monkey King. Its probably going for 3m thursday at this point.
Civil War MTC1
Previews(T-1) - 37355/398875 715288.13 2087 shows +6390
Friday - 32781/704452 610358.39 3581 shows +6763
There was not that much of an acceleration today. I dont think this movie will over index as much as Monkey King but 35% MTC1 ratio means it needs to have good walkups to hit 3m. Let us see how things go tomorrow.
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6 minutes ago, Menor the Destroyer said:
Well under, trailer views are not even close to DP3, plus Joker skews much more OS than the Deadpool movies.
I would not compare these 2 movies. Even if they are both comic book, Audience base for 1st movie was not atypical CB movie. There are no CGI money shots or action sequences. It was a character drama. So I would not just look at trailer comps here.
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On 4/8/2024 at 9:15 PM, keysersoze123 said:
Civil War MTC1
Early Shows Final - 9304/15392 211793.46 52 shows
Previews(T-3) - 25368/372819 497887.18 1918 shows +3610
Friday - 20349/622796 391428.55 3081 shows +3253
Early shows looks like ~325K based on show count posted by @katnisscinnaplex.
Definite growth again for previews. Also this is playing better at most places than say Monkey Man last week. So I am going to bump up thursday alone at 2.5m+ at this point.
Civil War MTC1
Previews(T-2) - 30965/398149 600910.07 2084 shows +5597
Friday - 26018/699115 491670.30 3556 shows +5669
Really strong day for Civil War. This is definitely not another Monkey King. Its probably going for 3m thursday at this point.
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I think it looks good. I did not love 1st Joker movie but Joaquin was fantastic in that movie. I am looking forward to seeing Lady Gaga as Harley Quinn. I have a feeling she is going to get nominated for this.
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21 minutes ago, Porthos said:
Having slept on it, probably think Rise of the Beasts would be the best in-the-ballpark comp. It had EA as well, which helps. Is the difference between start(-ish) of summer and May, but... eh.
Two problems. That starts at T-29 (which means over-indexing for KPotA at first) and *I* didn't start dedicated record-keeping tracking until around T-14 or so. So while others might be able to use it, I won't for a while.
Aside from that, kinda left looking around at a lot of really shitty comps. JWD would normally be in the ballpark, but that started at T-42 instead of this weird hybrid T-38 PLF/T-31 Reg rollout. Most of the other GA-themed films are in the T-24 to T-15 range, and thus will probably be completely unsuitable until the very last few days.
Will admit to being... intrigued by the Aquabro 2 comp since it started sales at T-31. Gonna be over-indexing at first thanks to the seven day PLF head start. But that might, just might, normalize the fastest out of everything that is conceivably on the table. Fast X might normalize within a couple of weeks, but that two month head start is... Yeah.
Be curious what else might be out there that is useable right now, when taking into account the PLF head start and the pre-sale windows.
Are you taking about Apes movie. I did take a look and presales does not scream a huge breakout. Early shows have good presales but that is just it. Definitely nothing like what Quorum is predicting.
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23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:
Civil War MTC1
Early Shows(4/8) - 8104/15392 186110.96 52 shows
Previews(T-4) - 21758/350298 430581.70 1758 shows +2158
Friday - 17096/575346 331903.44 2804 shows +2075
Now thinking 500K is possible for early shows. @katnisscinnaplex do you have show count for tomorrow?
Preview sales have picked up today. Let us see how final 4 days goes.
Civil War MTC1
Early Shows Final - 9304/15392 211793.46 52 shows
Previews(T-3) - 25368/372819 497887.18 1918 shows +3610
Friday - 20349/622796 391428.55 3081 shows +3253
Early shows looks like ~325K based on show count posted by @katnisscinnaplex.
Definite growth again for previews. Also this is playing better at most places than say Monkey Man last week. So I am going to bump up thursday alone at 2.5m+ at this point.
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Get Downey for next Avengers movie. Easy decision on Disney part.
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2 hours ago, Unfitclock said:
@keysersoze123 @charlie Jatinder how is abagail looking near you guys compared to Megan or other horror movies?
No clue but there are couple of others who have looked at it and it seem to be doing nothing so far. But horror tends to be walkup friendly and so we have to wait until release day to see how it goes.
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23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:
Civil War MTC1
Early Shows(4/8) - 7163/13514 166031.37 46 shows
Previews(T-5) - 19600/349424 390550.00 1750 shows +1437
Friday - 15021/573714 293489.27 2792 shows +1465
Meh day. Still sticking with 2m previews plus around 300-350K in early shows.
Civil War MTC1
Early Shows(4/8) - 8104/15392 186110.96 52 shows
Previews(T-4) - 21758/350298 430581.70 1758 shows +2158
Friday - 17096/575346 331903.44 2804 shows +2075
Now thinking 500K is possible for early shows. @katnisscinnaplex do you have show count for tomorrow?
Preview sales have picked up today. Let us see how final 4 days goes.
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22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:
Civil War MTC1
Early Shows(4/8) - 6621/12537 153703.79 43 shows
Previews(T-6) - 18163/349297 363159.23 1749 shows +1654
Friday - 13556/573850 265502.10 2792 shows +1299
Civil War MTC1
Early Shows(4/8) - 7163/13514 166031.37 46 shows
Previews(T-5) - 19600/349424 390550.00 1750 shows +1437
Friday - 15021/573714 293489.27 2792 shows +1465
Meh day. Still sticking with 2m previews plus around 300-350K in early shows.
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On 4/4/2024 at 10:06 PM, keysersoze123 said:
Civil War MTC1
Early Shows(4/8) - 4646/9257 104485.54 29 shows
Previews(T-7) - 16509/335010 331715.83 1652 shows +1369
Friday - 12257/571757 241054.31 2779 shows +1247
Still no signs of acceleration.
Civil War MTC1
Early Shows(4/8) - 6621/12537 153703.79 43 shows
Previews(T-6) - 18163/349297 363159.23 1749 shows +1654
Friday - 13556/573850 265502.10 2792 shows +1299
I was missing few early shows and so growth is not that much. I guess previews will be depressed until 9th at this rate. Not much time left for this to accelerate. But I feel this will play wider than Monkey Man and so should finish lot better.
FYI Monkey Man Friday - 61830/441252 962498.78 3085 shows
Not bad but its skewed to MTC1 like crazy.
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52 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
Wonder if it could be 40%.
I dont think so. smaller TC dont matter for these movies. They are driven by large urban markets. I expect larger MTC to do well for this movie.
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On 4/3/2024 at 9:52 PM, keysersoze123 said:
Civil War MTC1
Early Shows(4/8) - 4389/9257 99053.61 29 shows
Previews(T-8) - 15140/335883 305793.02 1655 shows +1261
Friday - 11010/556174 217388.84 2674 shows +1062
Civil War MTC1
Early Shows(4/8) - 4646/9257 104485.54 29 shows
Previews(T-7) - 16509/335010 331715.83 1652 shows +1369
Friday - 12257/571757 241054.31 2779 shows +1247
Still no signs of acceleration.
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22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:
Monkey Man MTC1
Previews(T-1) - 22232/196626 394375.72 1416 shows +3823
Friday - 19324/436224 332178.78 3035 shows +4115
Dont thing its going to do enough to hit 2m previews now. Probably around 1.5-1.7m previews. but weekend has tons more shows and so it should still hit low teens OW.
Monkey Man MTC1
Previews Final - 35377/197065 597056.59 1420 shows +13145
Friday - 26879/438943 452438.41 3060 shows +7555
Its final day walkups were inline with expectations. Not great but its not terrible either. I am thinking 1.7m previews with around 35% MTC1 ratio. Friday PS growth is just ok but it should do low teens OW I think. I am expecting stronger walkups over the weekend.
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On Ministry of blah, EA release seem fairly wide and its show count for previews is extremely low.
Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare MTC1
Early shows - 8190/34629 124010.80 259 shows
Previews - 1174/75028 18136.02 621 shows
Friday - 1167/173989 16890.45 1408 shows
Really strong sales for early shows. Otherwise nothing at this point.
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1 hour ago, Shawn Robbins said:
Hey All,
Some news to share.
I've left Boxoffice.com (BOP) as of this week. I'll have more news eventually, but just wanted to mention that I am no longer delivering forecasts for the weekend or long range on their website. If anyone asks or mentions it in the thread or the forum in general, I kindly ask anyone that can to please let them know about the change so I can try to limit the questions tagging me about it or what their site publishes going forward.
Thanks so much for all your support, friends. More to come.
Shawn
End of the Era. Congratulations on your time at BO.com and best wishes on your next endeavor.
At least we can make fun of BO.com forecasts going forward
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3 hours ago, MightyDargon said:
Does this still indicate 2.5mil previews?
I think so. does not have to do anything crazy to hit that number. 200K in early shows and another 2.3m+ in previews.
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The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
in Box Office Discussion
Posted · Edited by keysersoze123
Ok. its doing well but release is very limited and at MTC1 its only standard shows and that too at $5 ticket price everywhere. I dont think its going to even hit 1m.
Anyway
Spidey Monday MTC1 - 25699/49929 128495.00 318 shows
Also Civil War Friday for reference - 115641/710535 1944262.87 3618 shows
Since you said 7m TF, it did not over index that much today.