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keysersoze123

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Everything posted by keysersoze123

  1. keysersoze123
    I have no hope for any movies after 2 weeks. Case count will be lot bigger as the Trump administration is not taking this seriously 😞 I would say move out Mulan onwards until things get back to norm.
  2. keysersoze123
    Onward(T-1) MTC1 Prev - overall 1654 shows 18529/302006 310377.66 255368.71 MTC2 Prev - overall 1841 shows 9498/272525 119574.52 85568.59 MTC1 OD - overall 4447 shows 22220/842811 353343.38 296090.27 post 6PM 2124 shows 15164/409997 255486.57 211286.93 MTC2 OD - overall 4336 shows 21673/692740 240745.33 189835.29 post 6PM 1666 shows 11738/274017 148107.18 105240.27 MTC1 D2 - overall 4734 shows 25862/889273 333372.36 295377.70 post 6PM 2157 shows 7434/413003 122511.02 102971.15 MTC2 D2 - overall 4364 shows 25367/695818 254652.77 216736.74 post 6PM 1627 shows 4387/267986 56408.07 39966.23 I wont say it was a big day. its all down to final day walk ups. I am expecting MTC1 to increase 2.5x and MTC2 to triple final day for previews. Should be suffice for 2.5m thursday previews. I will try to update previews in the afternoon as previews start in east coast. Still hopeful that it will have good OW with walkups.
  3. keysersoze123
    you can track it daily for almost an year. I think endgame should start quaking 🙂
  4. keysersoze123
    I think next one that should be moved is Mulan. Black Widow can wait until April to make the decision. Beyond that let us keep fingers crossed that spring time reduces spread of COVID-19 and movies can go ahead with releases. Also movies that dont do much in OS markets can go ahead. I dont see a reason to move bloodshot or A Quiet Place 2.
  5. keysersoze123
    So theaters have to refund tickets sold as well. It did sell more than few. I wonder if Mulan also will be delayed as China is critical for the movie. for No Time to Die it was a no brainer looking at Europe.
  6. keysersoze123
    I agree. Plus Sonic had built in fan base. Onward will have better walk ups. The fact that Multiplexes have given it more shows makes it promising. I am expecting ticket sales to jump in next 2 days. I agree with 2.5 previews + 0.65m advance shows.
  7. keysersoze123
    Onward(T-2) MTC1 Prev - overall 1626 shows 14643/299405 249019.18 205567.03 MTC2 Prev - overall 1768 shows 7264/265990 92042.39 65937.95 MTC1 OD - overall 4063 shows 16252/776951 264639.00 222487.25 post 6PM 1957 shows 11233/382264 193623.16 160760.35 MTC2 OD - overall 4282 shows 16443/686999 183749.98 145223.88 post 6PM 1646 shows 8705/271578 110887.36 78835.24 MTC1 D2 - overall 4312 shows 19402/815892 257481.34 228293.28 post 6PM 1982 shows 5697/381884 95867.63 80821.77 MTC2 D2 - overall 4263 shows 19781/683872 199270.65 169547.25 post 6PM 1592 shows 3402/263234 43793.72 30963.13 More than number of tickets sold the number of show count increased dramatically today. Its higher than Sonic. Plus it has more Imax/PLF shows as well. So with good walkups 50m+ OW should happen. that D2 PS is making me think 20m+ saturday could happen. let us see where things are on thursday. That said on negative side is Previews/OD PS well below Sonic at this point. Let us hope walkups make up for it big time. At least I am more optimistic than yesterday.
  8. keysersoze123
    Too late for what? its all digital these days. They can change release date at any point. Plus with over 5 weeks to go to release there is still tons of marketing budget still to be spent that can be delayed.
  9. keysersoze123
    if they dont move it will cost 300-400m BO. That would be way bigger than marketing budget so far. Plus its not as if they have do everything again. Just announce date change and do web/tv marketing only close to release.
  10. keysersoze123
    I like all the dates except F9. May be look at July . I think 2nd half of the year should be good. I will also flip Bond and GvK. Bond likes 1st week of November.
  11. keysersoze123
    I have not tracked that long to have any comparisons. But since my data is big enough to be extrapolated on its own. I want to see huge OD PS jump. Even if it does better than Sonic on PS to OD BO, it still needs to go way higher to have reasonable Friday BO.
  12. keysersoze123
    Stupid to release this now when Europe is in a bad shape. Mark@InsideKino said France PS is postponed which means movie wont release as planned. Europe is critical for this movie. They should move it to summer. It can handle any competition.
  13. keysersoze123
    IM is looking at 70-72% drop form sunday if MTC is accurate. Nothing special. I am dropping this after today. Probably will end up with 80'sh total domestic.
  14. keysersoze123
    No Time to Die Marathon Shows MTC1 - 87/3821 3480.00 (19 shows) MTC2 - 95/2166 3800 (11 shows) Just 30 marathon shows between 2 MTC. Tickets are $40 a pop and so if it sells out by show day it coudl still gross 400K+ with just marathon. MTC1 Previews - overall 1380 shows 6462/310501 122287.76 104259.94 post 6PM 966 shows 5521/207138 105222.07 88870.08 MTC2 Previews - overall 1715 shows 3326/305290 43754.45 33026.17 post 6PM 1361 shows 2620/227198 35369.74 25387.44 Not bad but I expected more. One thing to note is with Imax/PLF playing full day the average ticket prices will be higher than usual.
  15. keysersoze123
    Onward(T-3) MTC1 Prev - overall 1152 shows 12243/234998 212089.57 175677.09 MTC2 Prev - overall 1191 shows 5522/203993 70291.89 50339.72 MTC1 OD - overall 2800 shows 11957/581330 199240.03 168017.93 post 6PM 1423 shows 8393/298042 147712.32 123123.00 MTC2 OD - overall 2777 shows 10962/489907 123746.55 97674.92 post 6PM 1099 shows 5815/197437 74858.47 53380.82 MTC1 D2 - overall 2946 shows 14929/609781 201593.60 178747.06 post 6PM 1438 shows 4405/298890 75431.95 63789.72 MTC2 D2 - overall 2868 shows 14689/501489 148498.09 126417.31 post 6PM 1110 shows 2542/197331 32993.07 23347.90 Not a great day again for Onward though the saturday sales are looking promising. OD PS is just half of Sonic at similar point 😞 I would say it will pick up big time on wed/thur and will have very good walk ups but at this point I dont see OW > 50m. Previews are looking like 2m but I am still hoping for better numbers.
  16. keysersoze123
    Numbers are quite low at this point. At worst its looking at 2m preview and 35-45m OW. But I want to wait couple of days before we get a better picture of how OW.
  17. keysersoze123
    From MTC perspective IM seem to be down 32-33% from saturday. I would say 7.7m sunday.
  18. keysersoze123
    Onward(T-4) MTC1 Prev - overall 1149 shows 10315/234396 180082.78 149412.50 MTC2 Prev - overall 1196 shows 4607/205229 58800.77 42118.79 MTC1 OD - overall 2764 shows 10228/576562 169412.95 142884.50 post 6PM 1406 shows 7173/296117 126093.52 105154.73 MTC2 OD - overall 2663 shows 9213/476027 104179.60 82172.95 post 6PM 1057 shows 4846/192261 62417.77 44471.85 MTC1 D2 - overall 2715 shows 11731/562562 156686.17 138893.63 post 6PM 1334 shows 3306/277033 55504.21 46748.08 MTC2 D2 - overall 2672 shows 12250/478581 124302.59 105764.84 post 6PM 1047 shows 2150/190539 27959.82 19828.40 I would say PS is still weak though the trend of D2> OD > Prev is good. It needs to pick up really fast to come close to Sonic OW.
  19. keysersoze123
    Congrats Chip. He is one of derby veterans from BOM days. I am sure he will do a great job.
  20. keysersoze123
    You could be right. I dont know how many shows it has nationally.
  21. keysersoze123
    Wait. Its a typo. I would say 10.5-11m. For some reason I started with 9m friday 🙂
  22. keysersoze123
    MTC1 D2 - overall 2986 shows 165454/592951 2281948.13 post 6PM 1638 shows 104291/326320 1501154.34 MTC2 D2 - overall 2428 shows 137537/412229 1525232.32 post 6PM 1117 shows 75880/184442 922545.81 Very impressive growth from Invisible Man across 2 MTC. I would say 10.5-11m range for saturday?
  23. keysersoze123
    Onward Advance/Marathon (Final) MTC1 - overall 115 shows 14044/18022 225098.22 221303.50 MTC2 - overall 104 shows 10591/11669 101351.50 86579.00 Good finish. Normally MTC1 does under index for a saturday and so there is a chance this could have have done 0.8-1m.
  24. keysersoze123
    A Quiet Place 2 (T - 19) MTC1 - overall 830 shows 3882/181683 70661.30 MTC2 - overall 1059 shows 1530/187470 20082.85 Numbers are not huge but I would not worry. This is not fan driven. Real action will be seen only in the release week.
  25. keysersoze123
    I doubt Mulan has 7m previews. Even F2 just did 8m. Aladdin had Will Smith. Nationally also it tanked after a big start. But that was expected as there is way to go for the previews. FYI Onward Advance/Marathon Shows have sold good with limited shows. MTC1 - overall 114 shows 10064/17903 162452.71 159766.93 MTC2 - overall 103 shows 9624/11552 93429.00 80591.25 Thinking most shows will be close to sellout tomorrow and so it can do 0.8m through advance shows. This is hard to project as MTC ratios could be unpredictable depending on how many shows are there nationally. I will look at Quiet Place 2 tomorrow.
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