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keysersoze123

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Everything posted by keysersoze123

  1. keysersoze123
    for 20m it needs at least 550K+ and MTC1 will under index. Definitely can happen. @TalismanRing 15x should not be an issue. @TwoMisfits Previews always over index, but in the case of Sonic it lacked the wide preview release of other movies. Based on Charlie's early projections MTC1 will under index today which is also a norm.
  2. keysersoze123
    OD PS Update Photograph MTC1 - overall 1993 shows 55965/305190 719259.50 574878.72 post 6PM 1011 shows 41276/155175 553927.42 434301.76 MTC2 - overall 1645 shows 32370/226073 337839.18 253923.33 post 6PM 699 shows 21900/95255 253666.26 176169.33 Excellent growth since yesterday night. Should have very good OD. I would say 7-8 OD. Fantasy Island MTC1 - overall 1426 shows 29746/192299 403277.29 325727.07 post 6PM 711 shows 21645/101344 313895.65 250410.73 MTC2 - overall 1501 shows 25456/187700 261926.24 197705.43 post 6PM 640 shows 16711/80653 192123.41 133285.82 Probably looking at 4-5m OD.
  3. keysersoze123
    It appears they started filming in Jan and will wrap up in August. I dont see it air before next summer. But its good that the show will go beyond hawkins.
  4. keysersoze123
    Yes. But only if it goes that high. That needs 280K tickets sold today. Definitely possible considering pace of ticket sales yesterday for previews. But I will try to update in the afternoon if that is too high. @ZackM data for MTC4 will also tell if OD is trending way higher.
  5. keysersoze123
    OD PS in the morning MTC1 - overall 3551 shows 115754/589735 1494058.69 1221194.21 post 6PM 1678 shows 64025/273385 861761.81 678634.56 MTC2 - overall 3413 shows 106066/521732 1098840.46 887265.57post 6PM 1225 shows 50651/185574 607461.56 429621.54 If it hits 500K+ between 2 chains by end of day I would say 16-17m friday. I think friday numbers for other chains normalize. MTC1 normally under indexes on a friday. I think it had a limited previews release outside big chains.
  6. keysersoze123
    Holy crap Sonic overindexed Big time. May be @ZackM data did show that it did badly in Canada but canada itself is not big part of overall numbers. May be MTC3 also did badly.
  7. keysersoze123
    Sonic Previews Final MTC1 - overall 1547 shows 59426/239573 847553.86 675073.90 MTC2 - overall 1804 shows 49585/258762 594537.66 421661.03 Looking at MTC1 its missing 4m. But it has overperformed at MTC2. Still will stick to 3.75m previews. Photograph sold just over 24700 tickets between the 2 MTC. I would say 0.7m considering it has overindexed bigtime at MTC1(2x MTC2). Sonic OD PS MTC1 - overall 3594 shows 97686/597583 1279483.34 1043170.48 MTC2 - overall 3541 shows 90473/550878 951434.40 761393.66 Again its overperforming big time at MTC2. MTC1 to overall ratio will be lower for OD and so I am expecting PS for friday to be 7m by the time shows start tomorrow. Fantasy Island OD PS MTC1 - overall 1534 shows 25294/207893 361425.14 291383.37 MTC2 - overall 1501 shows 18395/187700 195373.49 144401.97 Around 65% of Photograph. Not sure how walkups will be. But I will guess OD of 4m for FI.
  8. keysersoze123
    I never said Onward will come close to IO. I said that there was no way onward will come close to 7m previews even if it hits IO OW. BTW Are you saying a pixar original will have much smaller previews to OW ratio now compared to 2015? I dont know why an unknown family film will have big previews. It will more of a weekend movie. Soul will have much bigger hype as Docter is helming it but even that wont come close to 7m previews. Even a hugely hyped Frozen 2 did only 8.5m previews.
  9. keysersoze123
    7m previews was never on the table. Even Inside out did only 3.7m thursday on route to 90m OW. I think next movie you will track will be Bond. With that being Craig finale 7m+ previews should happen.
  10. keysersoze123
    Ok.I thought lego opened week before VD weekend? Are you talking about Lego 2? What I said is Friday is looking like 5x previews. Plus previews its already at 6x. 15x should happen. Saturday PS is not bad at all and walk ups will be even better on saturday. I feel Saturday BO will be slightly up from friday despite VD bcos core audience is families and tomorrow its a school day. Sunday drop also will be soft with monday being president's day.
  11. keysersoze123
    Photograph OD PS MTC1 - overall 1991 shows 39976/305079 529711.69 421271.29 MTC2 - overall 1645 shows 23659/226073 253708.03 187809.95 I must admit the it did not increase as much as what i thought yesterday. So double digits friday looks tough but it could still hit 7-8 friday.
  12. keysersoze123
    Considering OD is looking at 5x previews, I dont see how it does just 12x. I would say 15-17x previews depending on saturday walkups which should be really good looking at previews ticket data today.
  13. keysersoze123
    I have not looked at D2 yet. Will check tomorrow if its interesting. Mostly I track big breakouts only beyond previews/OD.
  14. keysersoze123
    Photograph(Previews Update) MTC1 - overall 1028 shows 14052/140237 182804.68 141811.62 MTC2 - overall 944 shows 6325/120500 72524.71 50005.73 Looks to finish around what I thought yesterday(800k previews).
  15. keysersoze123
    Sonic the Hedgehog(Previews update) MTC1 - overall 1541 shows 50059/238899 719061.52 573940.51 MTC2 - overall 1801 shows 38282/258527 459261.75 326460.74 Very good increase so far. I think it can finish 110K+. Let us see how the walkups are in west coast/central in next few hours. I will check around 9PM. For now I would say 3.75m previews. But it can hit 4m if walkups are better.
  16. keysersoze123
    I dont know how on earth people can measure buzz for original animation movie whose core audience are families. Onward will do ok. There is a marathon releasing week before(2/29) and so reviews will be out early. I am curious if this has great reviews like most pixar originals. Then OW will ramp up huge. after seeing early tracking I checked at MTC1 and it already almost sold 1500 tickets. That is faster start than Sonic. So I would not worry about this movie's "buzz".
  17. keysersoze123
    Why on earth did paramount delay reviews for this. it was anyway review proof but with good reviews its potential is even higher.
  18. keysersoze123
    That would be awful for Onward. Let us see how PS goes. I will provide 1st update over the weekend as openers this week are interesting to track.
  19. keysersoze123
    Fantasy Island (T-1) OD PS MTC1 - overall 1509 shows 17870/205343 261742.98 211466.52 MTC2 - overall 1499 shows 12917/187556 138857.08 101808.53 Not bad at all. This will do 60-70% of photograph OD.
  20. keysersoze123
    Photograph(T-1) previews MTC1 prev - overall 963 shows 6830/132886 91447.15 71357.72 +2584 MTC2 prev - overall 940 shows 2393/119901 27698.66 19183.80 +772 MTC1 OD - overall 1905 shows 26624/292669 357842.57 284372.31 +9566 MTC2 OD - overall 1634 shows 16327/225195 176917.28 130237.72 +4639 Not much action for previews. if it triples this number it will hit 800K previews. Let us see how walks up go tomorrow. Edit: updated with OD numbers and they are quite good. With good walkups I could see Photograph true friday > BOP True Friday !!!!!
  21. keysersoze123
    Sonic the hedgehog (T-1) MTC1 Prev - overall 1512 shows 27613/235631 414979.05 334210.19 +7390 MTC2 Prev - overall 1783 shows 18799/256331 230628.34 164405.34 +5255 MTC1 OD - overall 3545 shows 63886/592581 855607.25 696350.93 +22396 MTC2 OD - overall 3511 shows 60404/548771 644493.47 511724.49 +19419 MTC1 D2 - overall 3562 shows 38544/592039 474017.35 413735.30 +12466 MTC2 D2 - overall 3515 shows 32911/549857 323916.70 274090.48 +9102 Good day but not as good as I expected 🙂 If the preview numbers double tomorrow it should be good for 3.5m. With better walkins even 4m can happen. OD is where the main action is and that had another good day though it tapered off a bit in the evening. Saturday PS is also very robust and what is great is MTC1/2 ratio which shows movie is playing strong in big cities and smaller cities overall. I will stick to 50m+ 3 day and 60m+ 4 day for now.
  22. keysersoze123
    I am not comparing them as similar movies but movies with big PS. I did not think Sonic is so big that it has to have this big a PS. I dont remember seeing them in most anticipated for the year or anything. Normally kiddie flicks dont have big PS. I dont know if Pikachu was this big and that was in the anticipated list if I am not wrong.
  23. keysersoze123
    I always talk about true friday. May be I am too optimistic but data I am seeing is clear. Its bigger than Bad Boys even for Saturday PS. Also despite PS I dont see it stay flat on saturday despite VD. There is absolutely no history of a family movie staying flat in February. Plus the TMobile boost should play better during the weekend as friday is a school day. i will post updates detailed later but OD PS up to 107K. Probably will hit 130K today and then let us see how tomorrow goes. Probably not as high what I thought yesterday but still is looking good.
  24. keysersoze123
    Dont forget its President day weekend. There is no way it just does 43m with 18m friday. Plus Saturday PS is also very promising and still ahead of Bad Boys.
  25. keysersoze123
    There is no way this is more PS driven than bigger movies we have seen. I am sure @cJS would know for better. Anyway Fantasy Island (T-2) MTC1 - overall 1348 shows 11330/183136 171443.80 138928.75 MTC2 - overall 1487 shows 8438/186400 91118.07 66391.98 Even this is doing better than what it looked couple of days ago. Looking at 3/4 of photograph weekend. Let us see where things are tomorrow.
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