keysersoze123

I am not predicting any friday number yet. Let us wait until 8PM PST at least. With so much of PS for the evening I want to see how run rate is after 6PM PST when East coast would start to slow down and west coast has tons of PS. Post 8PM change would be negligible and one can easily project. however looking at @captainwondyful prediction game, this will be another over predicted movie after TS4(thanks to ridiculous early tracking) and TLK(thanks to the movie being awful). But just like those 2 F2 will have amazing BO. Just that it wont hit the expectations.

Run rate over past 3 hours has been 29K between 2 chains(MTC1 15k and MTC2 14K). 55% of ticket sold in MTC1 is for post 6PM shows while its 45% for MTC2. Overall number is 603K and so if it needs to double this number to hit 42m. I definitely dont see charlie's number happening. it needs to sell another 430K tickets by end of day to hit Deadline number. Possible but needs major acceleration. FYI RR means hourly number. Not overall for 3 hours. Then why ask?

Presales. Thou shall not ask what MTC is 🙂

Frozen Day 3 update MTC1- overall 6267 shows 160102/1145355 1818738.29 1623653.62 pre noon 1471 shows 62491/234270 498319.36 497404.91 post 6PM 2527 shows 28452/488638 394305.27 330421.75 +50133 MTC2 - overall 6548 shows 143146/1003814 1315343.00 pre noon 1486 shows 50718/223052 412319.00 post 6PM 2271 shows 12078/356247 134815.00 +42344 I did not update yesterday and so this is 2 days of PS for day 3. Very strong numbers. Could end up at 500K PS between 2 MTC. That would mean similar PS to friday.

how is 8.8-10m better than 13-14m !!!!. that is shitty number for a movie starring Black Panther and produced by Avengers directors. No Avengers boost for this one. Hanks has been a non-entity BO wise for a while and this movie will at least have amazing legs thanks to amazing reviews and probably oscar play. 21 B has rotten reviews and will disappear soon after OW especially with Knives out next week having universal acclaim and is also a crime thriller.

its going to be PS driven until tomorrow for sure. Real test of its legs will start only on sunday when PS levels wont be that high as today or tomorrow. But there is no question this is not a typical family movie. Its overall PS levels are very high. So some amount of frontloading is inevitable.

They did update the OS number. Yesterday's report was way lower.

its deadline. what did you expect. they will be conservative with low previews. It does not however limit weekend potential. I like to see how PSM works for today. Yesterday PSM was just over 50% from previous night finish which is very frontloaded. Today we have to wait and see. It should not be that bad.

Also last line "Projections for Frozen 2 are currently at $130M stateside for the weekend, and a possible $300M global." does not make it look like a 45m true friday.

45m true friday. Excellent. Edit: just to be safe, let us wait for actual weekend report from them. They could double count. They have done worse. Normally they just report friday number with previews as comscore does not separate it.

F1 did not outgross TS3 or 4 domestically. OS its way more popular except in latino markets and may be UK/AUS where TS3 did outgross F1. Otherwise F2 crushes TS4.

F1 was way bigger than TS in OS markets. Domestically F2 had crazy run from the holiday onwards. But overall Frozen brand is bigger but I guess TS4 is more relatable to Male Adults. I saw TS4 OW but dont care for F2 at all. But there are many on this forum who dont care for TS movies but will see F2 more than once. That said based on previews it was PS heavy like female led movies and it probably did not play that well with Adult males considering the previews. This is despite buzz was heavy and all the metrics like Trailer views were out of the world. But let us wait at least till the weekend before confirming it as a fact. Its just an opinion now.

thank you and you are right on the projections. it should do better than yesterday. Another 150K tickets should happen. May be 22m national PS.

I could see that happening. Only difference is Mal 2 was all walkin driven while F2 will be PS driven.

Let us wait few weeks before predicting that. Dont forget there is no holiday boost in 1st 6 weeks or so. So its hard to sustain with big OW.

I would say F2 OD and saturday will be very PS heavy but starting sunday walkin's will play a bigger role. PS for saturday is really strong with 3rd of tickets for shows before Noon. So that will bring down average ticket prices further. MTC1- overall 6660 shows 277247/1188104 3107802.67 2717048.47 pre noon 1652 shows 96764/253825 648794.51 647288.34 post 6PM 2708 shows 70226/510411 1002016.62 823550.17 +50363 MTC2 - overall 6506 shows 251331/994640 2429712.00 pre noon 1458 shows 77471/217092 617921.00 post 6PM 2310 shows 45900/362397 549111.00 +44423 If you assume 50% of tickets tomorrow would be for kids then PS across 2 MTC at ~ 5.3m. Probably will shoot up by another million or so by the time shows start. so 20m national PS start tomorrow.

Eric is MTC1 heavy. So phily underperformed just like NYC did. Did you CaptainWondyful's comparisons for LS13. That is something we knew for a while. Big cities with 17$ 2d tickets have bigger impact than smaller markets. But that said its BO today is very good in NYC. Emp/LS13 is at 3593/10351 . Dolby 10AM sold 58/225, LS13 Imax at 10AM sold 62/480. 4PM LS13 is more than half sold and 7PM is almost 80% sold. Dolby is near sellout for prime shows already.

Frozen merch is very popular like MCU Merch, Cars Merch, Minions Merch etc. I see them everywhere. But as a halloween costume I did not see a Anna/Elsa in past couple of years. My elder daughter wanted to be a witch while younger one wanted to be a PIG(She loves 3 little pigs story). So priorities change. Even in the halloween parties I went to I saw more recent SH characters than princess. So Wonder Woman, Captain America etc. But not all of that translates to huge BO. otherwise Cars would have never gone down.

I posted in tracking thread but it makes better sense here. F2 OD update MTC1 - overall 5981 shows 253639/1105840 3396129.46 2798973.30 post 6PM 2708 shows 143542/510745 2066998.28 1656127.20 pre noon 977 shows 25665/167059 201026.47 200143.50 1027AM MTC2 - overall 6541 shows 260115/1002597 2625808.00 post 6PM 2363 shows 121875/368539 1441482.00 pre noon 1418 shows 31708/214785 237612.00 1019AM so MTC2 seem to have slightly better run rate than MTC1 and did better with shows before noon. Not sure where it will end up but compared to previews 1m tickets would mean 35m friday. So for 42m it needs to sell 1.2m tickets. That will need crazy acceleration. let us wait and watch. for now my instinct says Charlie is overestimating the friday.

F2 OD update MTC1 - overall 5981 shows 253639/1105840 3396129.46 2798973.30 post 6PM 2708 shows 143542/510745 2066998.28 1656127.20 pre noon 977 shows 25665/167059 201026.47 200143.50 1027AM MTC2 - overall 6541 shows 260115/1002597 2625808.00 post 6PM 2363 shows 121875/368539 1441482.00 pre noon 1418 shows 31708/214785 237612.00 1019AM so MTC2 seem to have slightly better run rate than MTC1 and did better with shows before noon. Not sure where it will end up but compared to previews 1m tickets would mean 35m friday. So for 42m it needs to sell 1.2m tickets. That will need crazy acceleration. let us wait and watch.

was that a shocker. TS3 had universal praise while F1 was not.

i dont see this gross 500m. But let us wait until sunday.

Patience. Let us wait for OD to finish and see where PS is before looking at Sat/Sun.

@cannastop only you can respond. while I dont see Zoo 2 beating I2 but no way its pulling a Pets 2 unless they make a stinker which wont happen.

So 250 by sunday?