BoxOfficeFangrl

Pauly Shore? Napoleon Dynamite?! That voice cast screams "Asylum joint", but it's from Lionsgate...no wonder they're for sale. The big comedies of the 2000s and 2010s were sneakily more expensive than you'd expect, more mid-budget than low budget. Even The Hangover, which didn’t have big stars at the time, cost $35 million in 2009, and that was with Todd Phillips forgoing his salary in exchange for a percentage of the gross. With Will Ferrell or Adam Sandler at their peaks, the budgets really escalated. A whole different type of comedy, but Nancy Meyers movies have ridiculous budgets: The Holiday (2006) cost $85 million, somehow. Like, Hallmark has made house swap Christmas movies in 2 weeks for 30 times less. Anyway, comedy was always iffy internationally and worldwide grosses became more important to studios in time. DVD sales collapsed and a big moneymaker for edgy comedies was an unrated version for the home market with extra footage too hot for theaters. If they could make hit comedies as cheaply as hit horror, the genre would make a comeback in theaters. Once the budget gets bigger the studio wants to play it safe, which affects the humor.

There were 2 Pinocchios released in 2022, both by streamers: A live-action version from Disney+ with Tom Hanks, directed by Robert Zemeckis. This is the one sitting at 28 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. . A stop-motion musical version from Netflix, directed by Guillermo del Toro: Currently at 96 percent on RT. The awards bloggers think it's likely to get into Best Animated Feature and contend for the Oscar. Stop-motion had an iffy box office track record even in the best of times, so IDK.

The box office historian in me hates variable pricing but then I remember that second run theaters used to be a way bigger thing--prices have always varied a great deal. Theaters have got to do something big (and soon) to compete with apathy and streaming/PVOD. Paying stars millions to rhapsodize about the magic of AMC isn't working. Not to brag but $7-9 is basically what I pay for matinees now depending on the chain/location, and there's a Phoenix Theaters here with 2D tickets under $7 all day. But I look around the apps and see it's a very different experience in other places. If just 2 tickets alone cost more than a PVOD rental ($19.99), then it's understandable that people are largely skipping theaters outside of spectacle/horror. If the movie goes straight to a streaming service in 30-45 days, of course that cuts down on new and repeat ticket sales. Not a big concessions person, though I do understand that's where theaters make their money. Cheaper tickets would probably lead to people buying more food/drink.

And hope the boost in traffic will be enough to cover their costs? Movie theaters aren't libraries, they have rent/leases to worry about. But the huge attendance for National Cinema Day does tell you that there's still a big interest in theaters. They could probably experiment with different gimmicks beyond Cheap Tuesdays or a once a year $3 ticket promo. Though I do feel fortunate that movie tickets can still be cheaply had where I live, so I don't really relate to the complaints about prices. I've always favored matinees and don't really care about premium formats, which cuts down on the costs a lot.

There's no depth. You see it in the Top 10 most weeks, but it gets worse, the further you go down the chart. I was looking at the annual cumulative box office on The Numbers, and from 2000-2019, the movie that ranked #100 for the year grossed $20-30 million domestically. In 2021, movie #100 made $2.12 million (The Father). 2022 isn't over but isn't shaping up to be much better: right now, the 100th biggest release of the year is Crimes of the Future at $2.45 million. There's an enormous dropoff in overall attendance.

Was going to see The Fabelmans today, but the power is out at the theater (the region's biggest multiplex). Sorry Steven, I tried! Smile was a leggy hit but I was still taken aback to see it hit Paramount+ and EPIX already. At least it hit $100 million first. Still can't believe Universal released Easter Sunday in late summer. I looked it up and the story takes place around Easter. "Christmas in July" is a thing but "Easter in August" is not. The average person sees that scheduling and thinks it's extremely weird timing, or the movie must suck, or both: either way, they don't bother to see it. As a studio, you have to release that 3-4 weeks before Easter, then by their rules, it would’ve hit PVOD in time for Easter, hopefully boosting the on demand sales in the process. The market is changing, but some of these box office fails are own goals by the studios.

If anyone's showing up for Strange World, it's the all-grown-up boys who stanned Treasure Planet back in the day.

"Devotion: torn between religion and a forbidden love!" It would be different if the book was huge like Unbroken (but that one was also just a better title for a war survival story). But if Devotion had had this massive following as a book, then sticking with the title would make sense. Two women, two men. The production company Black Label Media produces a lot of different things: Begin Again (2013) The Good Lie (2014) '71 (2014) Demolition (2015) Sicario (2015) Breaking a Monster (2015) La La Land (2016) Rebel in the Rye (2017) Only the Brave (2017) 12 Strong (2018) Sicario: Day of the Soldado (2018) Sierra Burgess Is a Loser (2018) Broken Diamonds (2021) Reptile (2022) Devotion (2022)

This ad for Devotion makes it look like a historical version of Top Gun: Also, not sure about Devotion as a title. It's the shortened version of a book title (Devotion: An Epic Story of Heroism, Friendship, and Sacrifice) but if I heard "Devotion" alone, I would think the movie was a romance, maybe? Or a family story, before a fighter pilot drama. We're not in a climate where non-franchise movies can coast on enigmatic titles. Every trick in the book is needed to lure in viewers and that includes what the movie is called. * Not surprised by The Fabelmans. Have any of these "thinly disguised autobiopics of a director's youth" movies been box office hits? Belfast did well in the UK, at least, but that had The Troubles to make it relatable there.

Too bad it seems truly over for Clint Eastwood at WB, because stuff like The Mule or Gran Torino would be fine in this box office environment (and Richard Jewell needed another title, like "American Injustice: The FBI vs Richard Jewell" or something). Cry Macho flopped, but he was a bit frail to sell that character and it was day-and-date last year. This season is crying out for a late-breaking hit to change the awards conversation-that used to be Clint's sweet spot.

An early start? It helps a lot to get a foothold in the podcasting world. I can think of some other media big names who were just first in the game vs the most talented. Weinstein sucked in a number of ways besides the predatory abusiveness: the "Harvey Scissorhands" reputation, burying international films to do English language remakes. He was losing his grip on awards season even before the downfall, which points to his success being more about money/intimidation. Yet some of Weinstein's most notorious awards season antics weren't so much about money? Trying to sell Carol as a "dangerous thriller" was truly unhinged: none of the studio pundits in the game now would even try such a thing. We don't need Weinstein back, but a lot of studios these days have terrible strategies for awards season, even Twitter randos would know better. Like, how many people have been saying Netflix was picking the wrong movies as #1? Apple was smart with CODA but the competition being the latest Chilly Netflix Masterpiece helped a lot. The Oscar world is changing and I'm not sure the Awards Industrial Complex knows how to adjust.

Don't the Gothams and Indie Spirits have similar budget limits? How expensive can The Whale be? Perhaps Fraser is not sweeping after all... Also mildly riveted by the awards pundits turning on Scott Feinberg. Sure the sexism has jumped out before, but I wonder how much of this is jealousy/resentment about his status in Oscar journalism.

Some Early Access screenings are scheduled for this Saturday-check your local theaters.

We are getting it at one Regal and one AMC here-there are 6 Regals vs 2 AMCs within 25 miles or so.

On Screenwriting Twitter, they joke about Hollywood offices "winding down for the year" around November 7. It's absolutely wild that Disney announced an out-of-nowhere CEO switch (back to Iger!) on the Sunday night before Thanksgiving. They really felt the change couldn't wait another six weeks. Unbelievable! John Campea's popping the good champagne tonight...

The industry reporting about Tár's box office says things like, "Before the pandemic, a presumptive Best Actress winner vehicle would make $20 million!" Which wasn't even always true, but even so, I can't imagine Tár making that much even 5 or 10 years ago. How many hit movies have there been about conductors/composers? Amadeus was a really long time ago, had a much different tone and one of the lead characters was Mozart. And the Black Swan comparisons don't work either, it was much easier to cut flashy trailers/ads and hook people in with the premise, compared to Tár. * Bob Iger is back?! Maybe Disney will go back to treating animated movies like crown jewels instead of Disney+ bait.

She Said has been put into the same category as Spotlight and All the President's Men, but the average American moviegoer probably has more interest in reliving takedowns of the Catholic Church or POTUS, vs a Hollywood producer, even a very famous one. A Netflix/Hulu documentary/limited series, OTOH, that's way less investment for people: longer, but you're already at home, plus you can bail quickly if you hate it and watch something else. You could say sexual harassment/abuse is broadly familiar to many, but it's also unpleasant/upsetting or worse for some to see. Outside of horror, 2022 moviegoing audiences have shown little interest in coming out for movies along those lines. There's also the specific issue with She Said, that even people who like prestige fare were rolling their eyes at the idea of Hollywood making a film about the Harvey Weinstein investigation as an awards grab. The same Hollywood that until 5 years ago, ignored the rumors about his sleazy, bullying, abusive ways and kept showering his movies with nominations/wins anyway? Come on, now. He was not an outlier and the whole moviemaking culture still seems to condone abusive practices on a broad level, if the IATSE and VFX worker grievances are any indication.

If the budget wasn't $30 million, wouldn't Searchlight have told Deadline/Variety/etc by now? With a $15m budget, The Menu is a box office win, and what studio these days isn't taking that, or trying to spin a so-so result into a total triumph? Back when mother! was released, people didn't believe the initial budget reports from reputable sources, either. It was set in one place, and even with JLaw, it was very edgy territory: surely she was taking a pay cut/discount to be in an awards hopeful? Surely, a studio wasn't giving Aronofsky over 2x the budget of Black Swan for something so out of the mainstream? But no, Paramount read that script and really handed over $30 million. Wild decision, even by pre-pandemic standards...

That's when they think the movie will get them nominated for awards... The Menu is on the cusp of it but still a dark comedy with horror elements, not an obvious Oscar bait genre like biopics, historical/family dramas. So, the agents here probably wanted to get their money. A bit of Column A, a bit of Column B? A "Covid Tax" alone shouldn't double the budget of this thing (viewers saying it looks like a $10-15 million budget movie). The Menu costs 5x more than Ready or Not, the difference can't all be inflation and Covid protocols.

JLaw's not even doing that movie anymore, she said Amanda Seyfried was so good in The Dropout that there really wasn't a point for her to bother. * Watching a new Christmas movie on Hallmark where one of the Sister, Sister twins is a rocket scientist with Black Elon Musk for a boss. He tried to force his underlings at "Sky Rocket" to work on Christmas. But of course the tables are quickly turned and he's stuck playing a Christmas Prince for his employee's 8 year old daughter, despite being terrible with children and most humans, really. Amazing...

LOL, Friday news dump. They were probably hoping Twitter had actually collapsed first. Both earlier drafts of the script have derivative elements but the "Jack" character had a more sinister edge that Harry couldn't possibly pull off, so changes were made. I'm not saying DWD was ever going to be great, but with a costar somewhat on Pugh's level, it's probably better.

https://variety.com/2022/film/news/chris-hemsworth-acting-break-alzheimer-gene-discovery-1235436867/

Article originally posted in the Tracking Thread, about the problems facing specialty releases now: Some of the specialty chains have closed and moviegoing habits have changed with viewers who used to see these things in theaters. This year, Everything Everywhere All At Once opened in limited release to a 50K per theater average and eventually reached $70M. Other platform releases haven't been as fortunate... The Menu is also Searchlight, but is being pushed to 3,000 theaters, their biggest release ever. I guess the best move is to sell a prestige hopeful to general audiences right out of the gate, if at all ppossible. If not, the movie wil probably struggle at the box office. And if the movies aren't making money in theaters, of course they'll hit VOD much sooner than before.