redfirebird2008

I'm afraid Justice League will turn out like Green Lantern, WB's attempt to ripoff a well-made Marvel movie. First it was Iron Man, now it will be Avengers.

Eh, I don't know if obliterate is the right word. SM3 with 3D and inflation is close to $70m. But I sure hope Avengers can beat it. SM3 is garbage.

I wonder if Paramount is wishing they bought Marvel.

$75m is gonna happen.

Friday was off by $13-15m, not $20m. But I still think there is a good chance it hits $70m today.

Everyone was roaring with laughter. Truly one of the all-time great crowd pleasing scenes.

BOM has it as the number, so it's pretty close to legit. Sometimes the actual will fluctuate a bit, like $1m or so up or down.

"Not a record." Keep that trap shut, darling.

It can happen. Rallax is reporting that Saturday business at his theater is pretty much on pace to equal Friday (including midnight). Last night he was giving us reports from his theater and said there was no way it would come in at $65m. Sure enough that turned out to be $15m too low. I think we can't ignore how quickly WOM spreads today. It's way faster than it used to be. If a movie like this has insane WOM, it will filter out immediately and you will quickly start to see unusually great things happen in its daily numbers. Yes, even a day later is all it takes.

I'm thinking maybe tomorrow morning. I want to try to see it at a theater in a different town. This one seems to always screw up the sound. The dialogue was a bit low in the speakers compared to everything else. I've noticed this trend at that particular theater. Had a very hard time hearing dialogue during Inception and went to this other theater in a different town and the audio was perfect. Hoping for the same thing this time with Avengers.

$207m based on that ticket price. Very doable to be honest. If it can hit $75m today, it has a very strong chance of finishing at $210+ million for the weekend. Would "only" need a 26.67% drop on Sunday, which would be similar to SM1 and actually bigger than SM3's 22% drop.

$80m Saturday here we come!

60% of Avengers revenue is coming from 3D. Even conservative estimates have 3D prices at 30% higher than 2D. So with that in mind, it provides a boost of approximately 16% to the gross. Divide $200m by 1.16 and you get $172m, which is pretty much where SM3 and TDKR adjust to with inflation. Shawn wrote an article about it earlier this week and came to the same conclusion. http://boxofficetheory.com/2012/04/30/2012-summer-preview/

With 60% 3D share, it needs over $200m to do it. Could very well happen.

Will be happy as hell to see SM3's Saturday admissions record go down in flames. Piece of shit didn't deserve it.

It's gonna happen.

You have a problem with sensuality being in a movie where Catwoman is a character? Why?

Accusing people of saying things they've never said is a constant theme with him. It's pretty much his favorite "debate style" if you want to call it that. He's accusing me of overhyping TDKR when I'm one of the people saying it could easily turn out to be a piece of crap.

That's fine. I'm predicting $425m for it and people would probably call that a massive disappointment, but I seriously doubt the suits at WB will be disappointed in that kind of money. As far as the movie's quality, I'm waiting to see it. In fact, I've been saying it could easily turn out to be SM3 quality. But at least I'm waiting to watch it before declaring it as such, unlike you.

Exactly. His own prediction for TDKR undermines the theory he's been blabbing about for the last 4 years.

So you're predicting $375m for it. Batman Begins made $205m and isn't even close to $375m adjusted for inflation. Clearly Ledger's death wasn't the only reason TDK increased from Batman Begins even if we go based on your prediction for TDKR. Why would you predict anything higher than BB adjusted for inflation ($250m) if the Ledger effect truly was that large? Your own prediction for TDKR obliterates your "theory" about TDK's gross being $328m above BB solely because of Ledger's death.

Joker accounts for a lot of it. Begins' WOM counts for some of it. TDK's WOM itself counts for a lot of it too. It was a perfect storm, but make no mistake it would have been a $400m grosser even if he lived. To say it would have made "more or less the SAME" as Batman Begins is honestly the funniest thing I've seen posted on any box office forum. Not even Kal comes close to that level of hilarity. That theory even ignores 3 years of ticket price inflation.

I'm predicting $425m for TDKR, which isn't close to TDK. What is your point here?

$190m definitely looks like the floor. $200m is the target. Anything above that would be very sweet icing for Disney and Marvel.

WTF is right. You're the person who adamantly claims the movie made $328m more than Batman Begins simply because Ledger died. Begins' home video sales/WOM, the Joker character itself, and TDK's WOM all had absolutely zero to do with the increase. "More or less the same." Don't want people to call you out on it, don't repeatedly make that kind of comment.