redfirebird2008

Next update will be $75m in a couple hours.

Exactly. $60m is very doable. Can't look at the percentage increase from the previous record just in terms of dollar amount, you have to look at what the admissions record is and then figure out what Avengers theoretically could make with similar admissions and 2012 prices (including a 3D boost).

I think if Revenge of the Sith came out on a Friday in 2012 with 3D, it could definitely make over $100m. Amazing how times have changed in 7 years. $50m was a jawdropping number at the time.

No we can't. Way too early. Still 9:42 on the West Coast. Also there is no way of knowing how WOM will affect it throughout the weekend. If it's like TDK, you're going to see it hold way better than expected.

No, didn't Nikki say she was hearing these numbers from rival studios? Usually they go on the high end. For instance, this morning rival studios said $20m and the actual studio estimate ended up being $18.7m. I also remember rival studios were telling Nikki that TDK had a chance to break the record, while WB was steadfastly claiming it would make in the neighborhood of $100m. But when Friday night rolled around, she was saying $50m. Then $55m. Then Mason came on and said it was over $60m. Then Nikki came on with another update saying $68m. Actual ended up $67m. Potter's $91m was lowballed too for most of the day if I remember right.

I honestly think there's a bunch of lowballing going on in Hollywood right now. Reminds me so much of other huge openers in recent years.

Based on 16% higher admissions than Hunger Games plus a 15% 3D boost, you end up with $89.5 million. Even if it's not anywhere near that number, I feel very confident it's over $70m.

It ain't gonna get the same percentage increase as IM1 to IM2. No way in hell, unless of course they stick it in 3D as a cheap gimmick to boost revenue.

I'm just saying I think it has a legit shot based on what I witnessed tonight in that crowd. I'm no Marvel fanboy, but WOM about the Hulk in this movie is going to be off the charts similar to the Joker in TDK. That's the kind of electrifying character that can elevate a movie's legs in a big way. Plus this movie has a kickass climax too.

Personally I think the reports are bullshit. It's hitting $70+ million today. Forget about the weekend though, I'm more curious about its total. I think it has a legit shot at $500m. Haven't seen a crowd have that much fun at a movie since Ledger's Joker. Hulk was off the charts amazing and there was plenty of other great acting and humor along with a killer third act.

Hell, seems like opening day numbers change with actuals a lot too. TDK went down $1m. Same with DH2 if I remember right. Likewise with Hunger Games. TF2's opening Wednesday ended up being fudged upward by Puerto Rico Paramount after the fact.

Bingo. My 7:15 showtime is sold out. That's 2 hours from now. Zero 3D sellouts at this theater. I expect the 10:30 showing in 2D to also sell out. No clue what will happen with the 3D showings. They have a 6:15, 6:45, 8:15, 9:30, and 10:00 available in 3D.

A movie doesn't open that big and finish that big without big support from all quadrants.

I bet WB is pissed at Nolan for not having 3D on TDKR.

She's full of shit. $70+ million for sure, probably $75+ million.

Yes, Rallax reported this the other day for his theater. Said they were given instructions on the number of shows for 2D they were allowed to have. This is where we will see the studios start moving in the future for big openings. To up the ante over the previous record holder, you simply demand more 3D showings.

I'm going to guess 50%. That's about a 15% boost to the total dollar gross.

Heh, fair enough. I would be very surprised if it doesn't break the record, and I will also be surprised if it doesn't have a higher 3D percentage than Potter.

When we're talking about movies that sold tickets in the same neighborhood as SM1, TDK, SM3, and DMC, we're talking about movies that had some of the biggest demand ever on opening weekend. They definitely would have benefited in the same way from the 3D premiums just like DH2 and Avengers are benefiting from it.

What's wrong with it? From SM1 to DMC to SM3 to TDK, the opening revenue record used to translate into opening admissions records. Potter 8 broke that trend and now it looks like that will become the norm going forward.

That one is at a huge disadvantage without 3D. And ghost, do you really think people aren't willing to pay the premium to see a movie they've been waiting for on opening weekend? Opening weekends are all about anticipation and hype. People are willing to pay the premium. Hell, the studios could stick a movie on 100% 3D screens and people would still pay to see it no matter what.

Which is depressing to think about. 3D is ruining these milestones.

Not without 3D it won't.

So now the question is what was the 3D share?