mahnamahna

$28 million would be an excellent hold for this... making nearly $30 million in the 4th weekend is solid especially since Spring Break weekdays have lowered upfront demand for Fri-Sun

Sing is definitely going to be top 10 DOM... Illumination + Rogue One counterprogramming=$100 million+ DOM. Kubo will be lucky to get $50 million with Pete's Dragon the week before. All of the other Laika films minus Coraline did $50 million or so. Anything more than $60 million would surprise me. It'll definitekly finish ahead of Kubo and Trolls... I'd even say IA5 and Angry Birds. There's also a good chance it finishes above KFP3 if audiences really dig it, since Rogue One won't consume the Christmas BO the way Episode VII did. My guess for the top 10 would be Finding Dory - $450 million Moana - $340 million Zootopia - $315 million The Secret Lives of Pets - $265 million Sing - $205 million Storks - $150 million Kung Fu Panda 3 - $140 million Angry Birds - $115 million Ice Age 5 - $110 million Sausage Party - $85 million

Well, $250 million+ appears to be a near-lock for Zootopia, so long as it doesn't drop more than 60-65% next weekend. Allegiant bombed... not surprised. People are either making sure they see Zootopia or saving for BvS.

3/25-3/27 Batman vs. Superman: $167 million Zootopia: $23 million ($246 million) My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $15 million Miracles From Heaven: $10 million ($34 million) Allegiant: $9 million ($48 million) 10 Cloverfield Lane: $5 million ($55 million) London Has Fallen: $2.5 million ($53 million) Deadpool: $2.5 million ($343 million) Whiskey Tango Foxtrot: $1.5 million ($21 million) The Perfect Match: $1 million ($9 million) 4/1-4/3 Batman vs. Superman: $69 million ($280 million) Zootopia: $17.5 million ($269 million) God's Not Dead 2: $16 million My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $11 million ($32 million) Allegiant: $7 million ($59 million) Miracles From Heaven: $6 million ($43 million) Collide: $4.5 million 10 Cloverfield Lane: $4 million ($61 million) London Has Fallen: $1.5 million ($55 million) Deadpool: $1.5 million ($346 million) 4/8-4/10 Batman vs. Superman: $37 million ($336 million) The Boss: $28 million Zootopia: $14 million ($286 million) God's Not Dead 2: $10 million ($30 million) My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $7.5 million ($43 million) Before I Wake: $6 million Allegiant: $5.5 million ($67 million) Hardcore Henry: $5 million Everybody Wants Some: $4 million ($5 million) Miracles From Heaven: $3.5 million ($48 million) 4/15-4/17 The Jungle Book: $97.5 million Barbershop - The Final Cut: $23 million Batman vs. Superman: $17 million ($361 million) The Boss: $15.5 million ($51 million) Zootopia: $7.5 million ($295 million) Criminal: $6 million God's Not Dead 2: $5.5 million ($37 million) My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $5 million ($51 million) Allegiant: $3.5 million ($72 million) Before I Wake: $2.5 mililon ($9 million) 4/22-4/24 The Jungle Book: $65 million ($185 million) The Huntsman Winter's War: $34 million Barbershop - The Final Cut: $10 million ($38 million) The Boss: $9 million ($64 million) Batman vs. Superman: $8 million ($373 million) Zootopia: $5.5 million ($302 million) Elvis and Nixon: $4.5 million God's Not Dead 2: $4 million ($42 million) My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $3.5 million ($56 million) Criminal: $3 million ($10 million) 4/29-5/1 The Jungle Book: $43 million ($242 million) The Huntsman Winter's War: $18 mlilion ($61 million) Keanu: $16 million Mother's Day: $13 million Ratchet and Clank: $8 million Batman vs. Superman: $5 million ($381 million) The Boss: $4.5 million ($71 million) Zootopia: $3 million ($306 million) Elvis and Nixon: $2.5 million ($8 million) God's Not Dead 2: $2 million ($45 million)

It's not the kind of film that does huge on a weekday. Plus it has a $35 million budget, so it'll at least make a small profit

Its already $41 million ahead of BH6 at the same point - which puts it on pace for $264 million DOM, currently. Since its 3rd weekend should be much stronger than BH6, the lead should just continue growing until mid-April.

It's very bold to make an original $150 million animated caper with political/societal commentary, adult-skewing humor (almost all of the jokes rely on sarcasm, irony, puns or slow build-ups) and minimal kid appeal (most of the laughter at my screening came from teens/adults). BH6, WiR, Frozen and Tangled all had hefty doses of kid-friendly comic relief and easy-to-understand plots. Zootopia doesn't really pander to little kids. Zootopia aims for an older demographic, which can be risky with animation, depending on marketing and WOM (HTTYD2 for example).

Silence Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk Birth of a Nation The Girl on the Train La La Land Passengers Story of Your Life The Promise Sully The Founder My guess at the top 10 (in no particular order)... could obviously change over the next 8-9 months

Zootopia: $38.5 million ($210 million) Allegiant: $37 million Miracles From Heaven: $21 million ($27 million) 10 Cloverfield Lane: $14 million ($50 million) Deadpool: $8 million ($341 million) I'm expecting it. Unlike CF, Insurgent wasn't well-liked. The drop-off for Allegiant will be very noticeable. Maze Runner 2 #s wouldn't be very surprising

3/18-3/20 Zootopia: $38.5 million ($210 million) Allegiant: $37 million Miracles From Heaven: $24 million ($32 million) 10 Cloverfield Lane: $14 million ($50 million) Deadpool: $8 million ($341 million) London Has Fallen: $7 million ($50 million) Whiskey Tango Foxtrot: $3 million ($19 million) The Perfect Match: $2.5 million ($7 million) The Young Messiah: $2 million ($7 million) The Brothers Grimsby: $1.5 million ($6 million) 3/25-3/27 Batman vs. Superman: $162 million Zootopia: $23 million ($253 million) Miracles From Heaven: $18 million ($64 million) My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $14.5 million Allegiant: $11 million ($58 million) 10 Cloverfield Lane: $6 million ($61 million) London Has Fallen: $3 million ($55 million) Deadpool: $2 million ($345 million) Whiskey Tango Foxtrot: $1.5 million ($22 million) The Perfect Match: $1 million ($8 million) 4/1-4/3 Batman vs. Superman: $67 million ($283 million) Zootopia: $17 million ($281 million) God's Not Dead 2: $14 million My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $10.5 million ($33 million) Miracles From Heaven: $10 million ($81 million) Allegiant: $8 million ($72 million) Collide: $4.5 million 10 Cloverfield Lane: $4 million ($68 million) Everybody Wants Some: $3.5 million London Has Fallen: $2 million ($58 million) 4/8-4/10 Batman vs. Superman: $35.5 million ($339 million) The Boss: $28 million Zootopia: $13.5 million ($299 million) God's Not Dead 2: $10 million ($29 million) My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $7 million ($44 million) Miracles From Heaven: $6.5 million ($90 million) Allegiant: $6 million ($81 million) Before I Wake: $4.5 million Hardcore Henry: $3.5 million 10 Cloverfield Lane: $3 million ($72 million) 4/15-4/17 The Jungle Book: $96 million Barbershop - The Next Cut: $23 million Batman vs. Superman: $17 million ($365 million) The Boss: $16 million ($52 million) Zootopia: $7 million ($308 million) God's Not Dead 2: $6.5 million ($38 million) Criminal: $6 million My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $4.5 million ($51 million) Miracles From Heaven: $4 million ($95 million) Allegiant: $3.5 million ($86 million) 4/22-4/24 The Jungle Book: $63 million ($181 million) The Huntsman Winter's War: $30.5 million The Boss: $10.5 million ($68 million) Barbershop - The Next Cut: $10 million ($38 million) Batman vs. Superman: $8 million ($377 million) Zootopia: $5 million ($314 million) God's Not Dead 2: $4.5 million ($44 million) My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $3.5 million ($56 million) Miracles From Heaven: $3 million ($99 million) Criminal: $2.5 million ($10 million) 4/29-5/1 The Jungle Book: $40.5 million ($235 million) Keanu: $18 million The Huntsman Winter's War: $15 million ($54 million) Mother's Day: $10 million Ratchet and Clank: $7.5 million Batman vs. Superman: $5 million ($384 million) Same Kind of Different As Me: $4.5 million Barbershop - The Next Cut: $4 million ($44 million) Zootopia: $3.5 million ($318 million) God's Not Dead 2: $3 million ($48 million) 5/6-5/8 Captain America - Civil War: $168 million The Jungle Book: $18 million ($259 million) Mother's Day: $9 million ($23 million) The Huntsman Winter's War: $5 million ($62 million) Ratchet and Clank: $4 million ($12 million) Same Kind of Different as Me: $2.5 million ($8 million) Zootopia: $2 million ($320 million) God's Not Dead 2: $2 million ($50 million) Barbershop - The Next Cut: $1.75 million ($47 million) 5/13-5/15 Captain America - Civil War: $71 million ($275 million) The Jungle Book: $14 million ($277 million) Money Monster: $9 million Kidnap: $7 million Mother's Day: $5 million ($30 million) The Darkness: $4 million The Huntsman Winter's War: $3.5 million ($67 million) Ratchet and Clank: $3 million ($16 million) Zootopia: $1.5 million ($322 million) Same Kind of Different As Me: $1.25 million ($10 million)

I think Zootopia will do it... unlike LEGO, Zootopia doesn't have any major competition for over a month. LEGO had Frozen/Nut Job the couple weeks before and Muppets/Peabody not too long after. Zootopia's direct competition is Jungle Book (as a Disney film, it'll be paired in double features until Civil War) and R&C (a low-budget, likely sub-$25 million DOM grosser). It's also been over a month since KFP3, too. If it does $50 million+ this weekend and drops sub-30% next weekend, I'd say it's on pace for $300 million+ DOM due to Spring Break-boosted weekdays until early April. 3rd weekend drop will determine where it ends up.

Would love to see Zootopia do: $12.5 million $24 million $17 million $53.5 million 2nd weekend, $145.8 million after 10 days. That would put the film on pace for $280-320 million DOM.

Nate Parker (Birth of a Nation) Ang Lee (Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk) Denis Villeneuve (Story of Your Life) Morten Tydium (Passengers) Damien Chazelle (La La Land)

LEGO didn't have a holiday weekend its 3rd week. I can see Zootopia doing this... especially with no offerings for kids during the relatively continuous Spring Break period of March to early April. $76 million $54 million ($171 million) $36 million ($240 million)

$1.7 million $17.7 million ($19.4 million) $32.5 million ($51.9 million) $24 million ($75.9 million) $75.9 million OW With how little family competition there is until mid-April, it might even get a 4x and reach $320-340 million DOM.

Finding Dory: $475 million Moana: $335 million Zootopia: $320 million The Secret Lives of Pets: $270 million Sing: $185 million Storks: $150 million Kung Fu Panda 3: $145 million Ice Age 5: $110 million The Angry Birds Movie: $95 million Trolls: $85 million Sausage Party: $70 million Kubo and the Two Strings: $50 million Ratchet and Clank: $40 million The Little Prince: $15 million

3/11-3/13 Zootopia: $51 million ($165 million) 10 Cloverfield Lane: $32 million London Has Fallen: $11 million ($39 million) The Young Messiah: $11.5 million The Brothers Grimsby: $11 million Deadpool: $10.5 million ($330 million) The Other Side of the Door: $7 million The Perfect Match: $5 million Whiskey Tango Foxtrot: $3.5 million ($13 million) The Revenant: $2.5 million ($180 million) 3/18-3/20 Allegiant: $42 million Zootopia: $36.5 million ($236 million) Miracles From Heaven: $27 million ($36 million) London Has Fallen: $8 million ($53 million) 10 Cloverfield Lane: $7.5 million ($47 million) Deadpool: $7.5 mililon ($343 million) The Young Messiah: $7 million ($24 million) The Brothers Grimsby: $6 mililon ($21 million) The Other Side of the Door: $3 million ($12 million) The Perfect Match: $3 million ($10 million) 3/25-3/27 Batman vs. Superman: $167 million Zootopia: $20.5 million ($277 million) Miracles From Heaven: $20 million ($72 million) My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $14 million Allegiant: $13 million ($68 million) The Young Messiah: $6 million ($35 million) London Has Fallen: $4 million ($66 million) 10 Cloverfield Lane: $3 million ($68 million) The Brothers Grimsby: $2.5 million ($25 million) Deadpool: $2.5 million ($347 million) 4/1-4/3 Batman vs. Superman: $68 million ($297 million) Zootopia: $16 million ($304 million) God's Not Dead 2: $14 million Miracles From Heaven: $11 million ($90 million) My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $9.5 million ($30 million) Allegiant: $9 million ($83 million) Collide: $6 million Amityville - The Awakening: $5 million The Young Messiah: $3.5 million ($41 million) London Has Fallen: $2 million ($69 million) 4/8-4/10 Batman vs. Superman: $36 million ($353 million) The Boss: $27 million Zootopia: $12.5 million ($322 million) God's Not Dead 2: $9 million ($28 million) Miracles From Heaven: $8 million ($102 million) Before I Wake: $7 million Allegant: $6.5 million ($93 million) Hardcore Henry: $6 million My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $5.5 million ($39 million) Collide: $2.5 million 4/15-4/17 The Jungle Book: $86.5 million Barbershop - The Final Cut: $24 million Batman vs. Superman: $17 million ($379 million) The Boss: $13 million ($46 million) Criminal: $7.5 million Zootopia: $6 million ($329 million) God's Not Dead 2: $5 million ($35 million) Miracles From Heaven: $4.5 million ($108 million) Alliegant: $4 million ($99 million) My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $3.5 million ($44 million) 4/22-4/24 The Jungle Book: $57 million ($165 million) The Huntsman Winter's War: $34 million Barbershop - The Final Cut: $11 million ($40 million) The Boss: $8.5 million ($59 million) Batman vs. Superman: $8 million ($391 million) Zootopia: $4.5 million ($335 million) Criminal: $3.5 million ($13 million) Elvis and Nixon: $3.5 million God's Not Dead 2: $3 million ($39 million) Miracles From Heaven: $2.5 million ($111 million) 4/29-5/1 The Jungle Book: $38 million ($216 million) Keanu: $20.5 million The Huntsman Winter's War: $16 million ($58 million) Mother's Day: $12.5 million Ratchet and Clank: $12 million Same Kind of Different As Me: $5.5 million Barbershop - The Final Cut: $5 million ($48 million) Batman vs. Superman: $4.5 million ($398 million) The Boss: $4 million ($65 million) Zootopia: $2 million ($337 million) 5/6-5/8 Captain America - Civil War: $157 million The Jungle Book: $18 million ($240 million) Going in Style: $9 million Keanu: $8.5 million ($33 million) Ratchet and Clank: $7 million ($21 million) Mother's Day: $6.5 million ($22 million) The Huntsman Winter's War: $6 million ($67 million) Same Kind of Different as Me: $3 million ($10 million) Barbershop - The Final Cut: $2.5 million ($52 million) Zootopia: $1.5 million ($339 million)

I'm thinking it'll end up with $19.5-20.5 million for Friday. Deadline, Variety and the others released projections far too early. They've already gone up $3 million and the day hasn't even finished. Anything over $16 million is excellent considering it's an original animated film in March. It could possibly get a 4x-4.25x from its $60 million+ OW if WOM is phenomenal - especially with no competition until April 15th.

$1.7 million $24.3 million $35 million $25 million $86 million OW It'd be nice to see this size of an OW!

3/4-3/6 Zootopia: $78 million Deadpool: $20 million ($319 million) London Has Fallen: $16 million Whiskey Tango Foxtrot: $6.5 million The Other Side of the Door: $6 million Gods of Egypt: $5.5 million ($22 million) Risen: $5 million ($31 million) Kung Fu Panda 3: $3 million ($133 million) Eddie the Eagle: $4.5 million ($13 million) The Revenant: $4 million ($177 million) 3/11-3/13 Zootopia: $51 million ($161 million) 10 Cloverfield Lane: $34 million The Young Messiah: $12.5 million Deadpool: $12 million ($339 million) The Brothers Grimsby: $8 million London Has Fallen: $7.5 million ($29 million) The Perfect Match: $4.5 million Whiskey Tango Foxtrot: $3.5 million ($12 million) Gods of Egypt: $3 million ($27 million) The Revenant: $2.5 million ($181 million) 3/18-3/20 Zootopia: $38 million ($225 million) Allegiant: $37 million Miracles From Heaven: $25 million ($33 million) 10 Cloverfield Lane: $10 million ($54 million) Deadpool: $8 million ($353 million) The Young Messiah: $7 million ($24 million) London Has Fallen: $5 million ($38 million) The Brothers Grimsby: $3.5 million ($14 million) The Perfect Match: $3 million ($9 million) Whiskey Tango Foxtrot: $2.5 million ($16 million) 3/25-3/27 Batman vs. Superman: $164 million Zootopia: $21 million ($262 million) Miracles From Heaven: $18 million ($66 million) My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $14 million Allegiant: $12 million ($59 million) The Young Messiah: $5.5 million ($34 million) Deadpool: $3 million ($359 million) !0 Cloverfield Lane: $3 million ($60 million) London Has Fallen: $2 million ($41 million) The Brothers Grimsby: $1.5 million ($16 million)

... it could drop 60-70% against Zootopia's $60 million+ OW since that's the first film targeting its demo in a month. $145-150 million is the best case for it. $140-145 million more likely.

Witch is getting some critical acclaim and didn't have a large marketing campaign. It should be a leggy WOM hit. KFP3 has no competition and it's the last weekend before Zootopia takes away most of its screens. If it does $14.8 million this weekend, $11-12 million is plausible considering its WOM

2/26-2/28 Deadpool: $33 million ($286 million) Gods of Egypt: $12 million Kung Fu Panda 3: $12 million ($133 million) Risen: $8.5 million ($24 million) The Witch: $7 million ($19 million) How to Be Single: $6 million ($41 million) Eddie the Eagle: $4.5 million Race: $4 million ($13 million) Triple Nine: $3.5 million Star Wars Episode VII: $2.75 million ($925 million) 3/4-3/6 Zootopia: $80.5 million Deadpool: $19 million ($315 million) London Has Fallen: $14 million The Other Side of the Door: $7 million Whiskey Tango Foxtrot: $6.5 million Risen: $6 million ($33 million) Gods of Egypt: $5 million Kung Fu Panda 3: $4.5 million ($139 million) The Witch: $4 million ($25 million) How to Be Single: $3.5 million ($47 million) 3/11-3/13 Zootopia: $47 million ($154 million) 10 Cloverfield Lane: $42 million The Young Messiah: $11 million The Brothers Grimsby: $10 million Deadpool: $9 million ($330 million) The Perfect Match: $6.5 million London Has Fallen: $6 million ($24 million) Risen: $3.5 million ($39 million) Kung Fu Panda 3: $3 million ($144 million) Whiskey Tango Foxtrot: $3 million ($11 million) 3/18-3/20 Allegiant: $40.5 million Zootopia: $34 million ($211 million) Miracles From Heaven: $24 million ($36 million) 10 Cloverfield Lane: $11 million ($62 million) The Young Messiah: $6 million ($21 million) Deadpool: $5.5 million ($340 million) The Brothers Grimsby: $3.5 million ($16 million) London Has Fallen: $3 million ($29 million) The Perfect Match: $2.5 million ($11 million) Risen: $2 million ($42 million) 3/25-3/27 Batman vs. Superman: $162 million Miracles From Heaven: $18.5 million ($68 million) Zootopia: $18 million ($245 million) My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $15 mililon Allegiant: $13 million ($64 million) The Young Messiah: $4 million ($28 million) 10 Cloverfield Lane: $3.5 million ($69 million) Deadpool: $2 million ($344 million) The Brothers Grimsby: $1.5 million ($19 million) Risen: $1.5 million ($45 million) 4/1-4/3 Batman vs. Superman: $61 million ($267 million) God's Not Dead 2: $20.5 million Zootopia: $14 million ($267 million) My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $11 million ($35 million) Miracles From Heaven: $10 million ($84 million) Allegiant: $9 million ($81 million) Collide: $5 million Amityville - The Awakening: $4 million The Young Messiah: $2 million ($31 million) 10 Cloverfield Lane: $1.5 million ($72 million) 4/8-4/10 Batman vs. Superman: $31 million ($316 million) The Boss: $27 million God's Not Dead 2: $12 million ($38 million) Zootopia: $11 million ($283 million) Miracles From Heaven: $7 million ($94 million) My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $6.5 million ($46 million) Allegiant: $6 million ($91 million) Hardcore Henry: $5.5 million Before I Wake: $3.5 million Collide: $2.5 million ($9 million) 4/15-4/17 The Jungle Book: $83 million Barbershop - The Final Cut: $21 million Batman vs. Superman: $14.5 million ($338 million) The Boss: $14 million ($49 million) God's Not Dead 2: $8 million ($49 million) Criminal: $7 million Zootopia: $5 million ($290 million) Miracles From Heaven: $4.5 million ($100 million) My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $4 million ($52 million) Allegiant: $3.5 million ($97 million)

Worst case for Civil War is probably $115-120 million OW (if it's Avengers 2 or Thor 2 quality), while BvS is probably $135-140 million The lack of competition should get BvS to $150-155 million OW, since it's the first PG-13 tentpole of 2016 (Allegiant doesn't count since it could have a $25-30 million OW ) I doubt Civil War does less than $140-150 million OW, unless the film is subpar. Early test screenings have been positive, so the Russos may have kept up the quality from CA2. Personally, I'm expecting the superhero films to turn out as: Batman vs. Superman: $430 million Captain America - Civil War: $375 million Deadpool: $335 million Suicide Squad: $230 million X-Men - Apocalypse: $215 million Doctor Strange: $145 million If Deadpool holds better than I expect, it may finish #1 if BvS/Civil War underperform. But I think one of the two will cross $400 million and keep Deadpool from being the #1 CBM of 2016.

$47.5 million $45 million (WC goes berserk) $50 million $29.5 million $142.5 million 3 day $172 million 4 day A tad optimistic ($150-155 million 4 day is more likely) but it should increase Sunday