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mahnamahna

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Everything posted by mahnamahna

  1. $42 million for a 4th weekend is still amazing. A 50-55% drop should have been expected. $39-40 million for The Revenant is excellent - should get a 3.5x-4x if it gets enough Oscar nods. Both should be above $30 million next weekend... Ride Along 2 also. Then 13 Hours possibly going above $20 million. Big MLK weekend ahead
  2. 8 9.2 7.4 7.1 (774) 15.2 22.8 14 (826) - 52 4th weekend 5 6.5 4.5 4.2 (846) 10 16 11 8 (891) - 37/45 5th weekend Might be pretty bullish, but 950m-1 b looks to be its DOM finish
  3. In the 1st quarter, I think the top 10 will be Batman vs. Superman Zootopia Kung Fu Panda 3 Deadpool 13 Hours Ride Along 2 Allegiant Miracles From Heaven Zoolander 2 Hail, Caesar!/The Finest Hours 6-8 of those should do $100 million DOM, if a couple break out. And like others mentioned above, BvS will be significantly above Cinderella DOM, so all 1st Qtr 2016 needs is for everything else to perform solidly... KFP3 and/or Zootopia doing $200 million+ DOM would also be beneficial.
  4. Picture: Spotlight The Martian Mad Max: Fury Road The Big Short Star Wars Episode VII Carol Room Inside Out The Revenant Alt: Creed Director: Tom McCarthy - Spotlight George Miller - Mad Max: Fury Road Ridley Scott - The Martian Alejandro Gonzalez-Inarritu - The Revenant Todd Haynes - Carol Alt: Adam McKay - The Big Short Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio - The Revenant Michael Fassbender - Steve Jobs Michael B. Jordan - Creed Matt Damon - The Martian Eddie Redmayne - The Danish Girl Alt: Bryan Cranston - Trumbo Actress: Brie Larson - Room Saorise Roman - Brooklyn Jennifer Lawrence - Joy Lily Tomlin - Grandma Cate Blanchett - Carol Alt: Charlize Theron - Mad Max: Fury Road Supporting Actor: Sylvester Stallone - Creed Mark Rylance - Bridge of Spies Mark Ruffalo - Spotlight Michael Keaton - Spotlight Idris Elba - Beasts of No Nation Alt: Walter Goggins - The Hateful Eight Supporting Actress: Rooney Mara - Carol Jennifer Jason Leigh - The Hateful Eight Alicia Vikandier - The Danish Girl Kate Winslet - Steve Jobs Rachel McAdams - Spotlight Alt: Helen Mirren - Trumbo Original Screenplay Inside Out Spotlight Trainwreck Bridge of Spies The Hateful Eight Alt: Straight Outta Compton Adapted Screenplay Steve Jobs The Martian Room Carol The Big Short Alt: Anomalisa Animated Feature Inside Out Anomalisa Shaun the Sheep Movie The Peanuts Movie The Good Dinosaur Alt: The Prophet Cinematography Mad Max: Fury Road Sicario The Hateful Eight Star Wars: Episode VII The Revenant Alt: Carol Production Design Mad Max: Fury Road Star Wars: Episode VII Cinderella Carol Bridge of Spies Alt: The Danish Girl Costumes Carol Star Wars Episode VII Cinderella Crimson Peak Brooklyn Alt: Mad Max: Fury Road Makeup The Danish Girl Cinderella Star Wars Episode VII Alt: Mad Max: Fury Road Film Editing Mad Max: Fury Road The Revenant The Big Short The Martian Spotlight Alt: Bridge of Spies Sound Mixing Mad Max: Fury Road Star Wars Episode VII Inside Out The Revenant The Martian Alt: Bridge of Spies Sound Editing Star Wars Episode VII Mad Max: Fury Road Inside Out The Revenant The Martian Alt: Bridge of Spies Visual Effects Star Wars Episode VII Mad Max: Fury Road Jurassic World The Walk The Martian Alt: Avengers 2 Score Star Wars Episode VII Inside Out The Hateful Eight Bridge of Spies Carol Alt: The Danish Girl Song Furious 7 Creed Youth The Hunting Ground Spectre Alt: 50 Shades of Grey
  5. 2016 1. Finding Dory: $580 million 2. Rogue One: $515 million 3. Captain America - Civil War: $470 million 4. Batman vs. Superman: $435 million 5. Moana: $335 million 6. The Secret Lives of Pets: $310 million 7. Suicide Squad: $290 million 8. The Jungle Book: $275 million 9. X-Men - Apocalypse: $255 million 10. Zootopia: $240 million 11. Ghostbusters: $230 million 12. Star Trek Beyond: $220 million 13. Fantastic Beasts: $210 million 14. Sing: $200 million 15. Bourne 5: $195 million 16. Kung Fu Panda 3: $190 million 17. Doctor Strange: $185 million 18. Independence Day 2: $175 million 19. Deadpool: $165 million 20. Alice Through the Looking Glass: $160 million 21. Central Intelligence: $155 million 22. Storks: $150 million 23. The Magnificent Seven: $145 million 23. TMNT 2: $135 million 24. 13 Hours: $130 million 25. The Girl on the Train: $125 million 26. Gambit: $120 million 27. Ice Age 5: $120 million 28. Passengers: $120 million 29. Neighbors 2: $115 million 30. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates: $115 million 31. Angry Birds: $110 million 32. Zoolander 2: $110 million 33. The Founder: $110 million 34. Sully: $105 million 35. Pete's Dragon: $105 million 35. The Conjuring 2: $105 million 36. Miracles From Heaven: $100 million 37. Allegiant: $100 million
  6. 1/8-1/10 Star Wars Episode VII - The Force Awakens: $45 million ($813 million) The Revenant: $33 million ($35 million) Daddy's Home: $16 million ($117 million) The Hateful Eight: $10 million ($45 million) The Forest: $8 million Sisters: $7.5 million ($74 million) Alvin and the Chipmunks - The Road Chip: $6 million ($75 million) The Big Short: $5.5 million ($41 million) Joy: $4.5 million ($45 million) Concussion: $3.5 million ($31 million) 1/15-1/18 13 Hours: $46 million/$57 million Ride Along 2: $37 million/$45 million Star Wars Episode VII: $33 million/$42 million ($871 million) The Revenant: $23.5 million/$29 million ($76 million) Daddy's Home: $9 million/$11.5 million ($131 million) The Hateful Eight: $7 million/$8 million ($57 million) Norm of the North: $6 million/$7.5 million The Big Short: $4.5 million/$5.5 million ($49 million) Alvin and the Chipmunks - The Road Chip: $4 million/$5.5 million ($82 million) Sisters: $3.5 million/$4.25 million ($80 million) 1/22-1/24 13 Hours: $22 million ($90 million) Star Wars Episode VII: $17.5 million ($895 million) Ride Along 2: $17 million ($70 million) The Revenant: $13.5 million ($95 million) The 5th Wave: $7 million Dirty Grandpa: $6 million The Boy: $4.5 million Daddy's Home: $4 million ($137 million) The Hateful Eight: $3.5 million ($62 million) Norm of the North: $3 million ($11 million) 1/29-1/31 Kung Fu Panda 3: $62 million The Finest Hours: $25 million Star Wars Episode VII: $13 million ($914 million) 13 Hours: $12 million ($108 million) The Revenant: $10 million ($110 million) Ride Along 2: $9 million ($83 million) Fifty Shades of Black: $6 million The 5th Wave: $3.5 million ($12 million) Jane Got a Gun: $3 million The Hateful Eight: $2.5 million ($66 million) 2/5-2/7 Kung Fu Panda 3: $33 million ($105 million) Hail, Caesar!: $23 million The Finest Hours: $13 million ($45 million) Pride and Prejudice and Zombies: $11 million Star Wars Episode VII: $7 million ($925 million) The Choice: $6.5 million The Revenant: $5.5 million ($118 million) 13 Hours: $5 million ($116 million) Ride Along 2: $4 million ($89 million) Fifty Shades of Black: $3 million ($11 million) 2/12-2/15 Deadpool: $63.5 million/$82 million Zoolander 2: $33 million/$43 million Kung Fu Panda 3: $25 million/$32 million ($144 million) How to Be Single: $18 million/$22.5 million Hail, Caesar!: $15 million/$18 million ($48 million) The Finest Hours: $9 million/$10.5 million ($60 million) Star Wars Episode VII: $7.5 million/$9 million ($938 million) Pride and Prejudice and Zombies: $6.5 million/$7.5 million ($22 million) The Choice: $6 million/$7 million ($17 million) The Revenant: $4.5 million/$5.25 million ($126 million)
  7. As Inside Out Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens Cinderella The Martian The Peanuts Movie Mission Impossible - Rogue Nation Paddington Jurassic World The Intern Bs Ant-Man Avengers: Age of Ultron War Room McFarland, USA Minions Max SpongeBob 2 The Good Dinosaur Hotel Transylvania 2 Tomorrowland American Sniper Cs Pixels San Andreas A Walk in the Woods Vacation Get Hard Kingsman: The Secret Service Ds The Wedding Ringer Furious 7 Unfriended Mortdecai Fs Hot Tub Time Machine 2 2015 Films Left to See The Hunting Ground It Follows Home While We're Young Ex Machina Mad Max: Fury Road Spy Dope Me and Earl and the Dying Girl Mr. Holmes Paper Towns A LEGO Brickumentary Shaun the Sheep Movie The Gift Straight Outta Compton The Visit Black Mass Captive Everest Sicario 99 Homes The Walk Steve Jobs Bridge of Spies Goosebumps Brooklyn Spotlight Mockingjay Part 2 Creed The Lady in the Van Youth The Big Short Sisters Joy Daddy's Home Anomalisa Beasts of No Nation The Revenant
  8. 35 33.5 24 45 47 32.5 $791 million DOM by Jan 3... puts it in on pace for $950 million+ DOM
  9. $180.5 million ($569 million) $120 million ($834 million) $65 million ($944 million) $50 million/$64 million ($1.034 billion) $28 million ($1.074 billion) $20 million ($1.104 billion) $11 million ($1.120 billion) $10 million/$12 million ($1.137 billion) $6 million ($1.145 billion) $4 million ($1.150 billion) 130m+ tickets in its initial release... whoa
  10. 12/25-12/27 1. Star Wars Episode VII: $184 million ($573 million) 2. Daddy's Home: $20 million 3. The Big Short: $18 million 4. Alvin and the Chipmunks 4: $17 million ($46 million) 5. Sisters: $14 million ($39 million) 6. Joy: $8 million 7. MJ2: $6 million ($265 million) 8. Creed: $5.5 million ($97 million) 9. Concussion: $5 million 10. The Good Dinosaur: $5 million ($106 million)
  11. $30 million $62 million $74 million $59 million $195 million 2nd weekend... an increase from its OW minus previews... $594 million in 10 days $42 million $43 million $37 million $25 million $51 million $47.5 million $32.5 million $741 million by NYE... $872 million by Jan 3/17 days This is crazy
  12. I dont see how it misses it with a $30 million Thurs $58 million $66 million $52 million 176m 2nd weekend
  13. Yeah its unlikely $36 million $25 million ($376 million) $53.5 million $61.5 million $50 million ($541 million) $37 million $38.5 million $35.5 million $25 million ($677 million) $44 million $45 million $30 million ($806 million) Pretty bullish, but I think SW7 will be at $750-800m by Jan 3... $650-700 million feels like a certainty.
  14. Daddy's Home: $28 million The Big Short: $17 million Joy: $12 million Concussion: $10 million Point Break: $6 million
  15. 41M 42M 38M 30M - 151M (398M) 63M 65M 52M - 180M (578M) 41M 38M 34M 26M - 139M (727M) 51M 46M 33M - 130M (857M) 850M+ by Jan 3 Would be amazing if it happened. $900 million+ after 17 days... just crazy...
  16. Out. Christmas Day and zero new films worth going to see other than SW7 should keep it sub-50%
  17. $40 million ($290 million) $36.5 million ($326.5 million) $32 million ($358.5 million) $27 million ($385.5 million) $62 million ($447.5 million) $67 million ($514.5 million) $52 million ($566.5 million) $36.5 million ($603 million) $34 million ($637 million) $31 million ($668 million) $29.5 million ($697.5 million) $24,5 million ($722 million) $53 million ($775 million) $45 million ($820 million) $30 million ($850 million) $850 million by January 3rd is the dream
  18. Lol if it grosses $750 million+ DOM, it's locked for a BP nomination. The #1 film of all time at DOM box office won't get denied a nod with 90%+ on RT.
  19. Actually a little conservative with how big the 2nd weekend drop is. Weekdays are also kinda soft, considering at least two will be at around $30 million.
  20. 3x is worst case for SW7. There's zero true competition for families/teens until Jan 29 - its 7th weekend. There's nothing major opening next week, now that Joy has middling reviews and its Oscar chances are gone. Christmas Day and New Years Day will keep its 2nd and 3rd weekends at sub-50%. And if it gets some Oscar buzz, it should hold decent enough in Jan/Feb. If JW made it in June, SW7 won't miss it in the most back loaded BO period of the year. I'm thinking 3.75x-4x
  21. $14 million $19.5 million ($51 million) $16 million ($87 million) SW7 could have caused some major backloading for Sisters and Alvin 4
  22. It's pretty much locked to increase next week due to Christmas Day and massive backloading from SW7 $18 million OW could get it to $22-24 million next weekend.
  23. $130 million $75 million $50 million $31 million $28.5 million $26 million $21 million $52 million $54 million $42 million $28 million $30.5 million $27 million $23 million $41 million $36 million $24.5 million $704.5 million by January 3rd Possibly more if it holds better over the next couple weeks!
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